ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Well this will throw a little wrinkle in the model mix for 18z..

big jump wsw from a reformation.. speeding the timing up a little.

also typically wsw and SW reformations are a precursor to deepening.. often RI.

https://i.ibb.co/zbvrfjj/recon-AF301-1013-A-LAURA.png

That explains the pressure jump to 1006. But with convection that deep, it should come back down pretty quickly.

[LSU Saint]

Nerves are high at work right now in Houston. Seems the NHC is keeping the forecast east but it’s looking to come our way

[BobHarlem]

Nerves are high at work right now in Houston. Seems the NHC is keeping the forecast east but it’s looking to come our way

I suspect they are holding out for the 12z runs and more recon and will shift the track and set up Hurricane Watches at the 5PM, which are bound to set a bunch of stuff in motion if it's more west. I'm willing to bet Galveston/Houston area is under a watch at 5pm. But only if the 12z stays west.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like about ~15 knots of northerly shear is forcing the LLC to reform more southwards, closer to the UKMET scenario.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm not sold that Laura becomes a major hurricane in the Gulf but as ShellMound has stated it could have major-like impacts regardless of its peak strength similar to Ike.

I think best case it’s a strong cat 2. Models are ranging from 930mb to 970mb at land fall. If we split it down the middle it’s 950mb and I think that’s a bit on the conservative end seeing as how there are very few inhibiting factors across the gulf. Most likely I’d guess we will be looking at a 115kt-130kt storm approaching the gulf coast in a few days. Like you mentioned the storm surge will be that of a Major and a high end cat 2 and a low end cat 3 make no real difference besides the label as a major.

[WacoWx]

Can someone post a link to some infrared GOM sliders?

[GCANE]

is that current or future?

It was 6000 max for Michael correct?
Current

That, I believe, is correct.

[Kingarabian]

So confused on why the NHC did not bump up the intensity to cat.3. Even the most bearish model shows a stronger than Laura than what they do. Laura's satellite presentation has been getting by the hour as well. Just have to trust them. Hope local governments are planning for the worst.

[galvestontx]

Maybe NHC was asked by the mayor of Houston and other officials to give them until their press conference at 1 pm central to release the storm track shift west to give them time to get all evac plans set into place and ready so there isn’t mass confusion? Just a thought.

[Beef Stew]

Looks like about ~15 knots of northerly shear is forcing the LLC to reform more southwards, closer to the UKMET scenario.

It sure seems that way as of now. Levi mentioned this on twitter a few minutes ago:
 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297917272846209026

[CyclonicFury]

So confused on why the NHC did not bump up the intensity to cat.3. Even the most bearish model shows a stronger than Laura than what they do. Laura's satellite presentation has been getting by the hour as well. Just have to trust them. Hope local governments are planning for the worst.

Seems like they are keeping a Category 2 peak because the statistical guidance is lower. We have seen so many storms in the GoM significantly overperform statistical guidance though.

[Tireman4]

Well, and I am perplexed as you all are, they gave themselves a disclaimer..


Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of
the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at
72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph (13 kt). In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards will extend far from the center.

[Kingarabian]

So confused on why the NHC did not bump up the intensity to cat.3. Even the most bearish model shows a stronger than Laura than what they do. Laura's satellite presentation has been getting by the hour as well. Just have to trust them. Hope local governments are planning for the worst.

Seems like they are keeping a Category 2 peak because the statistical guidance is lower. We have seen so many storms in the GoM significantly overperform statistical guidance though.

If there's a storm in the GOM they should always be on the higher end of the intensity consensus. It's the GOM, in a cool neutral year. The gulf doesn't get more favorable than that.

[tailgater]

It was 6000 max for Michael correct?
Current

That, I believe, is correct.

How about the accuracy, just asking because the chart shows Marco a good bit father west than actuality. Laura’s path might be right through the middle of that high CAPE, obviously things change but damn.

[Kingarabian]

[Cyclenall]

Seems like Laura is reforming AGAIN even further offshore...when doesn’t she reform her centers

I was just going to ask how Laura survived crossing the length of Hispaniola and then eastern Cuba, wasn't Fay the only other storm to go lengthwise and then survive in modern times? I just reviewed Fay and forgot how crazy that storm was, developed an eye over Florida. With the track of Laura showing its land interaction, I suspect its core may not have been over Hispaniola that whole time but I wasn't following so can someone chime in about the center being further south?

[GCANE]

Marco has preconditioned the GoM with high TPW air.
A strong Laura will pull an almost unlimited amount of moisture out of the EPAC when she gets about the same longitude as the MS Delta.
Same scenario as what Michael did.

[Collenyd]

Well this will throw a little wrinkle in the model mix for 18z..

big jump wsw from a reformation.. speeding the timing up a little.

also typically wsw and SW reformations are a precursor to deepening.. often RI.


https://i.ibb.co/zbvrfjj/recon-AF301-1013-A-LAURA.png

If Laura goes through a RI cycle now, would that mean she potentially loses some steam even heading into the GOM environment?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BrooksWeather/status/1297919525711740929

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1297910903485145092



 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1297897360291500032



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1297908096925302784



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1297860987488526337



 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1297913604826714112