ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Looking at the 6.9 WV imagery there is starting to be a broad clockwise rotation from the building high which Isaias is embedded in and since Isaias is tracking into the western side of that dome I would expect a curve just offshore rather than a bee line. So if I were to *gamble* I would expect either a stronger hurricane just offshore or a weaker tropical storm making landfall. I've got plylox ready for the big gulf hurricane but I wouldn't necessarily waste the effort for tropical storm force winds.

[supercane4867]

With such impressive outflow pattern, shear is pretty much a non-issue.

[ozonepete]

In regards to dry air:
With the recent strengthening it is pretty sure to develop a strong CDO/core and circulation envelope which could very likely wall off the remaining dry air to the north and west. If this does happen we could have one hell of a strong hurricane. Looks like a dangerous situation developing now, especially for the Bahamas in the near term.

[NDG]

Another tower firing right near the center.

And on the western eyewall.

[Hugo1989]

This question is only for the experts in this forum. Without any pressure. Where will Isaias make landfall in FL?

[NDG]

Surprisingly NE eyewall not very strong.

URNT15 KWBC 312157
NOAA3 1009A ISAIAS HDOB 12 20200731
214800 2244N 07531W 6426 03740 9888 +094 +092 136037 041 052 001 00
214830 2246N 07530W 6423 03755 9902 +092 +091 140048 054 056 001 00
214900 2247N 07528W 6428 03759 9921 +086 //// 146057 059 053 011 01
214930 2249N 07527W 6428 03769 9944 +080 //// 136055 056 052 010 01
215000 2251N 07525W 6436 03771 9952 +083 +083 137056 057 049 005 00
215030 2252N 07523W 6420 03796 9966 +079 //// 136055 056 045 004 01
215100 2254N 07522W 6407 03824 9972 +079 //// 134051 053 044 003 05
215130 2255N 07520W 6429 03798 9982 +077 //// 136045 047 043 003 05
215200 2257N 07518W 6445 03779 9990 +076 //// 143043 046 /// /// 05
215230 2258N 07517W 6416 03827 9995 +077 //// 148040 041 /// /// 05
215300 2300N 07515W 6427 03816 9999 +078 //// 142047 054 /// /// 05
215330 2301N 07514W 6440 03802 0002 +078 //// 146047 052 /// /// 05
215400 2303N 07512W 6436 03810 0004 +078 //// 148043 047 /// /// 05
215430 2304N 07510W 6430 03816 0008 +076 //// 146049 051 /// /// 05
215500 2306N 07508W 6427 03826 0006 +079 //// 154055 057 /// /// 05
215530 2308N 07507W 6434 03821 0010 +079 //// 154056 059 /// /// 05
215600 2309N 07505W 6431 03827 0013 +079 //// 151051 053 /// /// 05
215630 2311N 07503W 6438 03820 0017 +078 //// 153048 052 /// /// 05
215700 2312N 07501W 6442 03814 0019 +078 //// 154051 054 /// /// 05
215730 2314N 07500W 6422 03842 0018 +077 //// 151050 054 047 020 01

[Hurricane Mike]

My evening video update take on Hurricane Isaias
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnOUaImyxe0

[FLpanhandle91]

Almost all wind readings in NE quadrant are flagged. Bust.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Just like that, 2020 being 2020. Isaias might be (dare I say) rapidly intensifying. Pretty sizeable pressure drop.

[BYG Jacob]

Almost all wind readings in NE quadrant are flagged. Bust.

Uh, what?

[FLpanhandle91]

This question is only for the experts in this forum. Without any pressure. Where will Isaias make landfall in FL?

No one on planet earth can answer that for sure. Your best bet is to pay attention to the words of The National Hurricane Center and tour local weather service.

[aspen]

Pressure down to 985 mbar with an eye starting to show on visible imagery.

[FLpanhandle91]

Almost all wind readings in NE quadrant are flagged. Bust.

Uh, what?

Check out the raw data NDG posted. The last set of numbers you see (e.g. 05) indicates suspect SFMR data.

[PandaCitrus]

Hurricane Charley went from a Cat 1 to a Cat 4 in a mere few hours before landfall. I think too many people are dismissing the potential for rapid intensification. The waters and tropical heat content are some of the warmest on the planet right now. It would not take much to really wind up a small compact storm.

[BYG Jacob]

Almost all wind readings in NE quadrant are flagged. Bust.

Uh, what?

Check out the raw data NDG posted. The last set of numbers you see (e.g. 05) indicates suspect SFMR data.

No, what do you mean by bust? Isaias is still a hurricane

[DestinHurricane]

If it strengthens can it still get close to/hit south florida? Only model runs I saw into FL were weak systems.

[cjrciadt]

Hurricane Charley went from a Cat 1 to a Cat 4 in a mere few hours before landfall. I think too many people are dismissing the potential for rapid intensification. The waters and tropical heat content are some of the warmest on the planet right now. It would not take much to really wind up a small compact storm.

The approach is a bit different, but Im almost under when I guess intensity.

[ozonepete]

This question is only for the experts in this forum. Without any pressure. Where will Isaias make landfall in FL?

With all due respect and understanding, none of the experts here would answer that at a time like this. It would be irresponsible. Follow the NHC and follow us and we'll do our best.

[St0rmTh0r]

Pressure down to 985 mbar with an eye starting to show on visible imagery.

We need some scans of the structure this could be about to blow

[FLpanhandle91]

Uh, what?

Check out the raw data NDG posted. The last set of numbers you see (e.g. 05) indicates suspect SFMR data.

No, what do you mean by bust? Isaias is still a hurricane

Referring to the SFMR data only. Not the storm.