ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

That, I believe, is correct.

How about the accuracy, just asking because the chart shows Marco a good bit father west than actuality. Laura’s path might be right through the middle of that high CAPE, obviously things change but damn.

The charts are estimates from models.
I use them more for judging deltas, comparisons, and trends.

[cheezyWXguy]

Another big burst near the center is coming soon. You can see it as a tiny pink dot on IR rotating along the southern side of the center.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Laura
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7NQkPTAoMo

[Kingarabian]

Well this will throw a little wrinkle in the model mix for 18z..

big jump wsw from a reformation.. speeding the timing up a little.

also typically wsw and SW reformations are a precursor to deepening.. often RI.


https://i.ibb.co/zbvrfjj/recon-AF301-1013-A-LAURA.png

If Laura goes through a RI cycle now, would that mean she potentially loses some steam even heading into the GOM environment?

Will be tough for it to RI with its current appearance and location close to the Cuban mountains. But stronger system now will likely mean a stronger system in the GOM.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well this will throw a little wrinkle in the model mix for 18z..

big jump wsw from a reformation.. speeding the timing up a little.

also typically wsw and SW reformations are a precursor to deepening.. often RI.


https://i.ibb.co/zbvrfjj/recon-AF301-1013-A-LAURA.png

If Laura goes through a RI cycle now, would that mean she potentially loses some steam even heading into the GOM environment?

Definitely possible should Laura decide to blow up into a hurricane before Cuba. However, there's a trick to that: should Laura continue trekking more west than expected, there's a slim (but growing) possibility that it could bypass the majority of the western tip of Cuba.

[bohai]

The sooner you get ahead of the crowd the better. The worse that could happen by leaving earlier is that you spend a few bucks for your peace of mind and safety.

That is why I prefer late departure but middle of the night. Allows for track changes and intensity forecasts to be taken into account. It only takes one bungled evac attempt to change your whole perspective on what makes more sense.

I like the middle of the night thing, but we have a 2 yr old and a 1 yr old, so that's pretty difficult on my wife. Granted - getting stuck in hours upon hours of traffic would be equally as bad.

Trust me, when we evacuated during Rita stuck in traffic even with just two dogs was horrible. Cant imagine kids and the needed pee stops.

[Shell Mound]

is that current or future?

It was 6000 max for Michael correct?
Current

The high CAPE actually indicates dry air. Normally high CAPE is associated with EMLs in the Plains states, not tropical air masses. This is actually unfavourable for RI.

At this point I’m not sure as to why so many people are criticising the NHC. The 12Z guidance is trending toward the easterly, weaker solutions, which makes sense.

This is a freaking nightmare trying to decide what to do. Everyone keeps saying west but then all the official stuff says East

In this case, I’d side with the NHC over some of the local meteorologists. Some networks try to “hype” for ratings instead of being objective and scientific.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1297924866671345666

[jasons2k]

The 12Z guidance is trending toward the easterly, weaker solutions, which makes sense.

Not to me, it doesn't. They initialized too far to the N/E again. Looks like Laura is consolidating offshore to the W/WSW of the previous center. She keeps riding the SW side of the cone - why would it suddenly change now?

I think the UKMET has a much better handle on the track of Laura.

[HoustonFrog]

It was 6000 max for Michael correct?
Current

This is a freaking nightmare trying to decide what to do. Everyone keeps saying west but then all the official stuff says East

In this case, I’d side with the NHC over some of the local meteorologists. Some networks try to “hype” for ratings instead of being objective and scientific.

I follow the Space City Weather guys in Houston and they seem perplexed by NHC. They aren't part of network and pride themselves on "hype free". They usually are in-line with what NHC is saying, but definitely confused on latest update.

[catskillfire51]

The 12Z guidance is trending toward the easterly, weaker solutions, which makes sense.

Not to me, it doesn't. They initialized too far to the N/E again. Looks like Laura is consolidating offshore to the W/WSW of the previous center. She keeps riding the SW side of the cone - why would it suddenly change now?

I think the UKMET has a much better handle on the track of Laura.

The ukmet just took a big east shift to louisiana

[bohai]

So what scares me the most about Laura is that at least in my part of Houston (central), the buildings aren’t built to withstand strong winds, and don’t have storm shutters etc. I’m not in an evacuation zone, but I wonder whether we should evacuate anyway. My father refuses to let us have a generator because he “doesn’t want to burn down the house” and we have no idea how to put plywood on all our windows. We also have a Bradford pear in the backyard and you know how those always fall in storms.
I know most people say to be more afraid of flooding, but I have been through a lot of floods. I have never been in major hurricane winds and I’m terrified.
EDIT: forgot to add my mother is high risk for Covid-19 so this makes the dilemma harder.

Lived in Houston for over 25 years. Central Houston has lots of big trees. If there are lots of these around you and with potentially very high winds, many trees will come down and you will be stuck. As far as how houses are built, my guess is that unless you are within 1-2 miles of the coast, almost no house is built to Hurricane Standards, especially if they are older homes.

[jasons2k]

The 12Z guidance is trending toward the easterly, weaker solutions, which makes sense.

Not to me, it doesn't. They initialized too far to the N/E again. Looks like Laura is consolidating offshore to the W/WSW of the previous center. She keeps riding the SW side of the cone - why would it suddenly change now?

I think the UKMET has a much better handle on the track of Laura.

The ukmet just took a big east shift to louisiana

I just saw that. I'm surprised by the shift but I still question this entire suite since we are seeing a center reformation to the west and a building core offshore. The next set should bring some clarity.

[bohai]

I'm not sold that Laura becomes a major hurricane in the Gulf but as ShellMound has stated it could have major-like impacts regardless of its peak strength similar to Ike.

I think best case it’s a strong cat 2. Models are ranging from 930mb to 970mb at land fall. If we split it down the middle it’s 950mb and I think that’s a bit on the conservative end seeing as how there are very few inhibiting factors across the gulf. Most likely I’d guess we will be looking at a 115kt-130kt storm approaching the gulf coast in a few days. Like you mentioned the storm surge will be that of a Major and a high end cat 2 and a low end cat 3 make no real difference besides the label as a major.

As for storm surge, during Ike, we were drilling a oil well just north of Holly Beach, LA. We removed the rig for the storm but we had a large bulldozer remaining. We built a small mound of dirt about 15 feet tall and left the dozier on top. Ir was never found and those things weigh a ton. or 3 or 4 or more.

[catskillfire51]

Not to me, it doesn't. They initialized too far to the N/E again. Looks like Laura is consolidating offshore to the W/WSW of the previous center. She keeps riding the SW side of the cone - why would it suddenly change now?

I think the UKMET has a much better handle on the track of Laura.

The ukmet just took a big east shift to louisiana

I just saw that. I'm surprised by the shift but I still question this entire suite since we are seeing a center reformation to the west and a building core offshore. The next set should bring some clarity.

I agree with that, especially since it's been fairly consistent was really thinking we would see more consistency today but it seems day time models east night time west.

[jasons2k]

The 12Z FV3-GEFS Ensembles cluster near Galveston FWIW...

[eastcoastFL]

12z intensity guidance



Also I can see why the nhc is going with their current track. The most closely clustered model runs are all tight on western LA here

[catskillfire51]

The 12Z FV3-GEFS Ensembles cluster near Galveston FWIW...

do you have an image? or site

[Ken711]

Did Marco produce any upwelling that could weaken Laura as it approaches the coastline?