ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3301 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:30 pm

yep...

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3302 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:31 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:yep...

https://i.ibb.co/8gBJsKR/index.png

question.


do you think it has a better chance of missing south fl if it keeps getting stronger?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3303 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:32 pm

aspen wrote:How high is the elevation of Grand Bahama? If Isaias keeps on its current course, it will make landfall there within 24 hours, which could either cripple the storm or put a halt in any phase of intensification. If GB has a significant impact on Isaias’ structure, that could spare Florida from a more significant landfall, assuming it is going to make landfall in FL.

? Will not make landfall in Grand Bahama unless there is an east shift. If it did hit GB then it would not make it to Florida.

Do you mean andros?
Last edited by DestinHurricane on Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3304 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:33 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:yep...

https://i.ibb.co/8gBJsKR/index.png

question.


do you think it has a better chance of missing south fl if it keeps getting stronger?


before when the ridging was "thought to be weaker" that case could have been made..

now that the ridge is known to be stronger. looking less likely.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3305 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:35 pm

gatorcane wrote:
ozonepete wrote:In regards to dry air:
With the recent strengthening it is pretty sure to develop a strong CDO/core and circulation envelope which could very likely wall off the remaining dry air to the north and west. If this does happen we could have one hell of a strong hurricane. Looks like a dangerous situation developing now, especially for the Bahamas in the near term.


Great point. Here in SE Florida today, it is literally a desert with just a few clouds and milky skies as SAL is in firm control. Also it really hot. I was outside doing yard work this afternoon and it was unbearable even by the coast where I live. One would think the storm is going to have a hard time dealing with this dry airmass as it approaches the NW Bahamas and South Florida.

One thing absent: saw very few birds around, a bit unusual.


Noticed no birds at my end too, although a few have come out in the last couple hours.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3306 Postby Hurricane Mike » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:36 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:yep...

https://i.ibb.co/8gBJsKR/index.png

question.


do you think it has a better chance of missing south fl if it keeps getting stronger?


before when the ridging was "thought to be weaker" that case could have been made..

now that the ridge is known to be stronger. looking less likely.


First of all, Isaias is about to start deepening at a faster rate. Secondly, I agree. If this goes south of Andros, I doubt it misses a direct landfall. Right now, I see a landfall near WPB and north.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3307 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:37 pm

the eye is fully closed and deepening..

pressure is likely going to begin to start dropping fast..
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3308 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:39 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
aspen wrote:How high is the elevation of Grand Bahama? If Isaias keeps on its current course, it will make landfall there within 24 hours, which could either cripple the storm or put a halt in any phase of intensification. If GB has a significant impact on Isaias’ structure, that could spare Florida from a more significant landfall, assuming it is going to make landfall in FL.

? Will not make landfall in Grand Bahama unless there is an east shift. If it did hit GB then it would not make it to Florida.

Do you mean andros?

Yeah, I meant Andros. My bad.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3309 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:41 pm

Another look at the closing eyewall.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3310 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:41 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:the eye is fully closed and deepening..

pressure is likely going to begin to start dropping fast..


What do you think the odds are that it stays off shore?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3311 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:42 pm

Looks like it is organizing to me
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3312 Postby MJGarrison » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:42 pm

Can a closed eye-wall aid in strengthening?


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Last edited by MJGarrison on Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3313 Postby Weatherboy1 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:43 pm

aspen wrote:How high is the elevation of Grand Bahama? If Isaias keeps on its current course, it will make landfall there within 24 hours, which could either cripple the storm or put a halt in any phase of intensification. If GB has a significant impact on Isaias’ structure, that could spare Florida from a more significant landfall, assuming it is going to make landfall in FL.


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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3314 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:45 pm

NDG wrote:Another look at the closing eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/4xe0eQa.gif


The eyewall is looking pretty good. Just about fully closed
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3315 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:45 pm

MJGarrison wrote:Can an close eye-wall aid in strengthening?


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A closed eye is a requirement for strengthening.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3316 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:45 pm

MJGarrison wrote:Can a closed eye-wall aid in strengthening?


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100%
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3317 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:45 pm

MJGarrison wrote:Can a closed eye-wall aid in strengthening?


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Absolutely
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3318 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:46 pm

MJGarrison wrote:Can an close eye-wall aid in strengthening?


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Yes. It has to be closed for modest to rapid strengthening.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3319 Postby KWT » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:46 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like it is organizing to me


Yes the inner core is indeed closing off now and has been gradually doing so recently.

This goes along with the drop in pressure. Providing shear doesn't increase and force mid level dry air into the system over the next 12-24hrs, a major isn't out of the question.

However, seen many a system look good at one point then the above knocks the stuffing out of it, so something to keep an eye on.

At the moment, trends are bad for Florida.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3320 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:48 pm

Oh nice, we have two low-level recon planes in Isaias now. Both will sample different heights of the storm, and will hopefully get all sides of the eyewall and find the area of max winds (which I think they might’ve missed last flight).
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