ATL: LAURA - Models

[catskillfire51]

HMON initialized, not sure what to make of it yet though.

[SoupBone]

HMON initialized, not sure what to make of it yet though.

Made a huge jump west from 0 to 3 hours? what?

[tolakram]

HMON initialized, not sure what to make of it yet though.

Bad.

[catskillfire51]

HMON initialized, not sure what to make of it yet though.

Bad.

https://i.imgur.com/aODq1Iq.png

Thanks yours looks better than mine.

[SoupBone]

Two centers?

[Jag95]

GFS 18Z run
https://i.imgur.com/M1hPPqR.gif

Boy it just hooks right, right at the end turning north. That run has been the first GFS run that I can recall that didn't flip flop.

What makes this hook as it approaches Texas like that? Is there a chance that doesn’t hook and just plows on through?

Eroding of the ridge by an approaching trough according to the discussion. It's gonna be another one of those 'just how far west will the ridge take it', a la Rita and many others.

[dantonlsu]

Two centers?

https://i.imgur.com/lFG3Bmx.png

Might just want to toss that one out the window.

[Blown Away]

18z model guidance shifted a little farther E, looking better for Texas.

[shiny-pebble]

Weird first 12 hours of the HMON...

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[cheezyWXguy]

18z model guidance shifted a little farther E, looking better for Texas.

I havent seen anything shift east? GFS went slightly west or about the same. NAM and ICON went slightly west but I wouldn't put stock in them.

[Fancy1001]

Look at the NAM 3km for a good laugh.

[catskillfire51]

In regards to the HMON, we will know when recon gets there but shouldn't she be stronger then 1004mb already?

[cheezyWXguy]

Weird first 12 hours of the HMON...https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/728c129d1e9d8b91273fb0a026d24295.gif

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I am dizzy just looking at that...lol

[eastcoastFL]

Weird first 12 hours of the HMON...https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/728c129d1e9d8b91273fb0a026d24295.gif

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Looks really odd . It’s all over the place, initialized East. Jumps west. Jumps south then jumps over Cuba...

[eastcoastFL]

Weird first 12 hours of the HMON...https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/728c129d1e9d8b91273fb0a026d24295.gif

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I am dizzy just looking at that...lol

Lol, right? Literally hurt my eyes. What’s with this thing?

[Frank P]

12z and 18z GFS model runs look pretty close in the final landfall location of Laura, maybe a touch west, but the overall size of Laura on the 18z is appears is larger.. seems like the models have finally started to lock in the SW coastal areas of LA and perhaps the upper TX coast might be affected as well if some of the ensemble models come to fruition... IMO... wonder how much coastal erosion will transpire along the LA coast from Laura, certainly not going to be good... and hope all the residents get the heck out of harms way... been there and done it with Camille and Katrina.... seeing a beast like this coming right at you is a painfully gut wrenching feeling that I hope to never experience again.. God Bless all those in harms way...

We've got Storm Surge warnings all the way to SE MS, there's no telling. If it gets any bigger, might expand that to AL.

Yeah I saw that, forecasted to be at 3-5 feet ASL as it stands now.... hope no ERCs occurs as it approaches MAJOR status and ultimately increasing the size of the wind field... will also be coming perpendicular to the coast which usually exacerbates the surge, and any further shift east in track would obviously raise concern here along the MS Coast.... remember when Gustav hit over in LA I had a good 10-11 foot surge in front of my house... went half way up the center neutral grounds ns completely covered the east bound lane on HWY 90.... waves were crashing on the sea wall and I would get the wind driven spray on my front porch.. Plan on model watch intensely for the next day or so... data from this site is extremely valuable to me!

[tarheelprogrammer]

Weird first 12 hours of the HMON...https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/728c129d1e9d8b91273fb0a026d24295.gif

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Looks really odd . It’s all over the place, initialized East. Jumps west. Jumps south then jumps over Cuba...

Could be a sign that there are multiple centers within a broad COC? Who knows. It does look weird. Hoping it is multiple centers, could slow down intensification if that is the case. Here's to hoping.

[shiny-pebble]

The HMON run has been very weird... I would take it with a grain of salt

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[catskillfire51]

HWRF actually initialized decent

[Kingarabian]

Weird first 12 hours of the HMON...https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/728c129d1e9d8b91273fb0a026d24295.gif

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Looks really odd . It’s all over the place, initialized East. Jumps west. Jumps south then jumps over Cuba...

Could be a sign that there are multiple centers within a broad COC? Who knows. It does look weird. Hoping it is multiple centers, could slow down intensification if that is the case. Here's to hoping.

But in real life there are no signs of such. And it shouldn't be jumping around Cuba in 12 hours. In 12 hours it should be in the GOM.