ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[robbielyn]

Watch levicowan.com for his new video. Very interesting!

[TheProfessor]

A south shift but 15 to 20 miles won't reduce any impacts for Miami-Dade, may actually increase them due to winds and rain extending pretty far north of this storm. It might lower the threat for Palm Beach county, well see. NHC will likely shift the track south though. It would take a pretty significant south shift to greatly reduce the impacts to Miami-Dade, though and even more for the Keys. The main threat continues to be flooding and possibly prolonged tropical forced winds.

[SFLcane]

A south shift but 15 to 20 miles won't reduce any impacts for Miami-Dade, may actually increase them due to winds and rain extending pretty far north of this storm. It might lower the threat for Palm Beach county, well see. NHC will likely shift the track south though. It would take a pretty significant south shift to greatly reduce the impacts to Miami-Dade, though and even more for the Keys. The main threat continues to be flooding and possibly prolonged tropical forced winds.

Hey Theprofessor, Prolonged TS winds in Broward to? Sunrise area. I am currently under a warning

[Steve H.]

But the windfield will be spread out further to the north and east of the center. Winds on the space coast of east central florida are already gusting over 30 miles an hour, and this will only increase as the pressure gradient increases over the weekend.

[Blown Away]

I guess that's why you don't bet against the Euro.

This is this mornings 06z guidance... The Euro is the orange line way on the left ... What the models show tonight is one crazy track, which I know is plausible, but Eta has not listened to the models at all today, which includes the TVCN...

[AutoPenalti]

WSW shifts after Florida like we saw in the recent runs can mean that eventually it can get into the Yucatán and a front would sweep this right back at us.

We will see, tricky forecast for sure.

[Blown Away]

Red dot is 7pm position.. Eta has moving NE at 14 mph at 7pm... Is Eta still moving NE and being sheared or has Eta decided to move E or ENE?

[lhpfish]

I’m going with landfall around govt cut but I’m lacking to see what is turning this north in the next few hours. Heck it looks to be moving ene.

[wxman57]

I think that the NHC will be adjusting their track a bit farther south of the FL Peninsula shortly. It may pass south of the Keys Monday morning. I think they will also abandon the slow north movement up 84W for Wed/Thu.

[blacktopninja]

There are a lot of competing features rotating around ETA at lower and upper levels the atmosphere, and it looks like the steering patter from 200-700Mbs is slowing down. It was moving at 17MPH about 4 hours ago, and now I think it's less than the 14 NHC had it as in the 7PM update. The steering pattern under 500Mbs has pretty much broken down.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[lhpfish]

I think that the NHC will be adjusting their track a bit farther south of the FL Peninsula shortly. It may pass south of the Keys Monday morning. I think they will also abandon the slow north movement up 84W for Wed/Thu.

Why?

[wxman57]

I think that the NHC will be adjusting their track a bit farther south of the FL Peninsula shortly. It may pass south of the Keys Monday morning. I think they will also abandon the slow north movement up 84W for Wed/Thu.

Why?

Because it will get farther east before it's blocked by the high, so it won't get as far north when it turns west. Nothing indicating a track north of 84W any longer.

[Blown Away]

If Eta is on track IMO SW shear is eroding the circulation or Eta again is moving well E of the NHC track...

[sma10]

I think that the NHC will be adjusting their track a bit farther south of the FL Peninsula shortly. It may pass south of the Keys Monday morning. I think they will also abandon the slow north movement up 84W for Wed/Thu.

Why?

Because it will get farther east before it's blocked by the high, so it won't get as far north when it turns west. Nothing indicating a track north of 84W any longer.

Seems to me it looks like Eta after 48 hrs or so will start meandering, which usually isn't very good because it makes that 3-5 day forecast that much more difficult to predict. Hopefully, the environment will not allow it to strengthen too much at that point

[aspen]

Well that’s a crazy intensity track for the 10pm update — weakens to 50 kt over Cuba, then intensifies to 60 kt near the Bahamas, weakens back down to 55 kt by the Keys but quickly gets back to 60 kt, and then finally starts rapidly weakening at the end of the forecast period. Lots of ups and downs, and nearly becoming a hurricane TWICE.

[lhpfish]

https://imgur.com/gallery/XQ5znTB

Tree down!

[wxman57]

The NHC shifted the track a little farther south when passing Florida. It doesn't cross 25N until 83W now. A little farther west at day 4, but the 120hr point remains 27.5N/84W. They're stalling it there because of all the uncertainty. Future south (of Florida) and west shifts likely coming, as per their discussion.

[SFLcane]

Oh Euro sorry I doubted you. Either way enjoy the blustery sleeping weather folks.

From NHC 10pm:

While the overall synoptic pattern remains the same, there has been a big change to note with the track forecast, with a notable south and west trend with almost all of the guidance on Sunday and beyond. It appears that the system becomes more involved with a closed low forming near western Cuba tomorrow, which causes a sharper and
faster left turn near the Florida Straits or Keys. The new NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, but is well north of the bulk of the guidance due to continuity concerns, and future southward and faster shifts are possible.

[Ken711]

The NHC shifted the track a little farther south when passing Florida. It doesn't cross 25N until 83W now. A little farther west at day 4, but the 120hr point remains 27.5N/84W. They're stalling it there because of all the uncertainty. Future south (of Florida) and west shifts likely coming, as per their discussion.

How much rain do you see out of this for South Fl?

[gatorcane]

Oh Euro sorry I doubted you. Either way enjoy the blustery sleeping weather folks.

From NHC 10pm:

While the overall synoptic pattern remains the same, there has been a big change to note with the track forecast, with a notable south and west trend with almost all of the guidance on Sunday and beyond. It appears that the system becomes more involved with a closed low forming near western Cuba tomorrow, which causes a sharper and
faster left turn near the Florida Straits or Keys. The new NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, but is well north of the bulk of the guidance due to continuity concerns, and future southward and faster shifts are possible.

Did you doubt the semi-permanent SE / Florida ridge that has basically protected peninsula Florida all season?

The other thing is that it is November. It is pretty remarkable we even have a threat this late. We will still get some rain and gusty winds to TS force at times being on the dirty side, but unless something dramatically changes, we should make out yet again mostly unscathed.