ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1289316303769985024

[gatorcane]

Is it me or is it like impossible to get satellite loops? TropicalTidbits does not load all frames and NHC site is not responding. Can anybody post a loop? When you need it most, these sites don’t work too well. Too many people on I suppose.

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like most models show it weakening before a possible FL landfall.

Makes sense you could see the shear increasing already. We'll see if this could fight through it but the double attack of shear/dry air could easily weaken this to a TS.

[Chemmers]

Looks like the eye wall is almost completed http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/

[fci]

the eye is fully closed and deepening..

pressure is likely going to begin to start dropping fast..

What effect will dry air and SW shear have?

[johngaltfla]

http://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1289336734006689793?s=20
IS whatever aint gonna go down quietly

Now it is getting its act together. And plenty of warm water ahead to keep the fuel up and hot for 24 hours. This could be a very interesting weekend in Eastern Florida. Good luck gang, we're praying for you.

[Ian2401]

Nassau is getting blasted by this outer rainband on this webcam

[tropicwatch]

Is it me or is it like impossible to get satellite loops? TropicalTidbits does not load all frames and NHC site is not responding. Can anybody post a loop? When you need it most, these sites don’t work too well. Too many people on I suppose.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL092020/13/GOES16-AL092020-13-1000x1000.gif?hash=85768

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1289325790283231232

[Aric Dunn]

the eye is fully closed and deepening..

pressure is likely going to begin to start dropping fast..

What effect will dry air and SW shear have?

Well despite the models calling for shear and dry air..
both seem to be significantly less than the models were showing..

[Kat5]

Seems to be moving more NNW rn. Maybe recon can confirm.

[fci]

No hurricane watch for Broward and Miami-Dade? Thought it would at least extend down to Broward.

The angle of approach and tilt of the storm lessens thread down south of us.
If it ends up east of us, PBC will just get the spitting rain and gusty conditions.
Of course if it comes inland by Boca......

[hurricaneCW]

the eye is fully closed and deepening..

pressure is likely going to begin to start dropping fast..

What effect will dry air and SW shear have?

Well despite the models calling for shear and dry air..
both seem to be significantly less than the models were showing..

Shear is increasing over the system now. We'll probably see an exposed or partially exposed LLC by this time tomorrow with pulsing convection.

[FLpanhandle91]

Holy hot tower batman! Look at that! Could deepen fairly quickly here. Recon is there at the perfect time.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 938&y=1086

[ThetaE]

Figured out another reason why winds appear weaker on the NOAA plane- they’re flying at 650mb, which is quite high esp. for a weak hurricane.

[Hd444]

Holy hot tower batman! Look at that! Could deepen fairly quickly here. Recon is there at the perfect time.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 938&y=1086

Not good

[jaxfladude]

So what is it? Dry/SAL/shear keeping Isaias in check still or the hurricane getting better organized faster than expected?

[Aric Dunn]

noaa plane missed the center.. but snagged 985 mb with 30 kt winds..

pressure is probably down more..

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy just went thru a massive vortical hot tower on the eyewall
44 mm/hr rain rate
985.5 mb in the eye

[pgoss11]

So what is it? Dry/SAL/shear keeping Isaias in check still or the hurricane getting better organized faster than expected?

I’m with ya buddy! How can you tell with all these contradicting comments! Ugh!