ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3341 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:40 pm

saved radar loop

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3342 Postby al78 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:42 pm

St0rmTh0r wrote:
artist wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:So far Haiti and the western Dominican Republic have seen by far the worst effects from Laura, but have received the least media attention.

https://twitter.com/gasmuha/status/1297942609055436800

That's why I hate it when people only focus on their city or state. What about the people being severely effected in other places?


People will always be far more concerned about impacts to themselves and their loved ones than to people in a different country they have no emotional connection with. You can hardly blame them for that.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3343 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:48 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:To be honest, a track into Cameron/Johnson’s Bayou, LA, would be the best-case scenario thus far. Such a path, besides avoiding Greater Houston and Galveston Bay, would also miss Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange, TX, as well as New Iberia/Morgan City, LA. Even with a large wind field, Laura would produce its worst storm surge over the least populated region of LA, while Southeast TX would be on the western side of the system. At this point in time a Category-4+ TC is looking rather unlikely, the trend is weaker and farther east, and a blend of available data would strongly suggest a landfall somewhere around Cameron/Johnson’s Bayou, LA. In terms of impacts to life and property this would be the “least bad option,” even though some small communities would suffer greatly. At the end of the day Laura may not be worse than another Ike or Rita: locally significant, certainly, but far from a worst-case scenario, since Ike and Rita, however catastrophic, do exist as benchmarks, and we know that a Category-4+ with a wind field as large as Laura’s would be even more catastrophic, especially if it were to track closer to Houston/Galveston, the Golden Triangle, and/or Morgan City/New Iberia. Currently, however, the only sizeable urban area in the path looks to be Lake Charles, and that city is fortunately inland.

You seem to be ignoring the data that doesn’t fit your narrative. Ensembles so far put Houston in the crosshairs and ukmet and gfs are the equivalent of a category 4 when resolution is taken into account. This doesn’t even account for the fact that all of the models run so far do not have a handle on short term evolution and all have the center too far east to start.


I will also add to this that when Rita it around Cameron parts of SE Texas Lumberton/Beaumont area got hammered. If you are strictly talking about storm surge than yes you would be correct. But wind/rain would be something that could still potential cause damage.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3344 Postby AtascocitaWX » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:49 pm

dhweather wrote:Key West radar at 248nm - at appears the center is moving due west, or maybe just south of due west.

https://i.ibb.co/wgFxgYP/Laura-Cuba.gif



does look to be moving due west.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3345 Postby LSU Saint » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:49 pm

Looks like a definite Louisiana impact
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3346 Postby hohnywx » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:50 pm

AtascocitaWX wrote:Hello Long time Lurker , First post ever. Love all the different opinions and predictions. Question with a possible Cat 3 storm going into say Tx/LA border area, where would the storm surge impact the most?


The surge will always be the worst in the right-front quadrant of the storm. So if it makes landfall at the LA/TX border, SW Louisiana will be getting the brunt of the surge.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3347 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:50 pm

LLC looks to be heading for Isla de la Juventud.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3348 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:54 pm

Looking at hi-res visible, I can actually see the cloud tops rotating in that CDO. There is likely a very small but tight llc center in there.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3349 Postby galvestontx » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:56 pm

superfly wrote:
TallyTracker wrote:If it keeps moving that way, Laura might miss the Isle of Youth to the south!

Miss to the north if anything...

Are you watching the radar that shows the center moving due west? It would have to drastically change course to miss the island to the north.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3350 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:57 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:LLC looks to be heading for Isla de la Juventud.

https://i.imgur.com/RTra6W6.gif

If it keeps on track with the NHC’s 2pm position, it will either hit the island or skirt just a tiny bit south of it.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3351 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:58 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Looks like the center is about to cross the skinniest portion of western Cuba

https://i.imgur.com/AIGxERT.gif

Structure improving by the hour inflow increasing once this hits the Gulf it could GO! What's are the shear maps looking like? Anyone?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3352 Postby superfly » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:04 pm

galvestontx wrote:
superfly wrote:
TallyTracker wrote:If it keeps moving that way, Laura might miss the Isle of Youth to the south!

Miss to the north if anything...

Are you watching the radar that shows the center moving due west? It would have to drastically change course to miss the island to the north.


This is not a well organized storm so you're watching the MLC on radar. The LLC on visible satellite is not going to miss to the south.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3353 Postby alienstorm » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:05 pm

Laura is clipping Cayo Largo Cuba which is east of Isles of Youth seems to be moving now wnw.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3354 Postby Do_For_Love » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:07 pm

Idk, I feel like I can see the WNW movement on radar. It looks like based on trajectory and NHC center position that it will pass juuust to the north of the island of youth, imho
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3355 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:13 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:To be honest, a track into Cameron/Johnson’s Bayou, LA, would be the best-case scenario thus far. Such a path, besides avoiding Greater Houston and Galveston Bay, would also miss Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange, TX, as well as New Iberia/Morgan City, LA. Even with a large wind field, Laura would produce its worst storm surge over the least populated region of LA, while Southeast TX would be on the western side of the system. At this point in time a Category-4+ TC is looking rather unlikely, the trend is weaker and farther east, and a blend of available data would strongly suggest a landfall somewhere around Cameron/Johnson’s Bayou, LA. In terms of impacts to life and property this would be the “least bad option,” even though some small communities would suffer greatly. At the end of the day Laura may not be worse than another Ike or Rita: locally significant, certainly, but far from a worst-case scenario, since Ike and Rita, however catastrophic, do exist as benchmarks, and we know that a Category-4+ with a wind field as large as Laura’s would be even more catastrophic, especially if it were to track closer to Houston/Galveston, the Golden Triangle, and/or Morgan City/New Iberia. Currently, however, the only sizeable urban area in the path looks to be Lake Charles, and that city is fortunately inland.

You seem to be ignoring the data that doesn’t fit your narrative. Ensembles so far put Houston in the crosshairs and ukmet and gfs are the equivalent of a category 4 when resolution is taken into account. This doesn’t even account for the fact that all of the models run so far do not have a handle on short term evolution and all have the center too far east to start.

The latest reconnaissance fix indicates that the centre has shifted significantly WNW, despite having relocated southward, so the LLC is quickly adjusting itself and tracking closer to the eastward solutions, to not mention the NHC’s forecast. In fact the latest fix indicates that the short-term movement is nearly NW. This isn’t going to pass south of the Isla de la Juventud; if anything, it will pass just to its north. The UKMET has performed well relative to the other models, especially in the short term, but so has the HWRF, and the UKMET, like the ECMWF, has a notable westward bias with most tropical systems, just as the GFS and HWRF tend to have a rightward bias. When the ridge is stronger than analysed, I tend to give more weight to the UK/EC; when the ridge is overestimated, I lay greater emphasis on the GFS/HWRF. In this case both the ridge and Laura are proving a bit weaker than expected, so Laura will be more susceptible to Marco’s presence, and thus track farther east over the Gulf of Mexico.


Should still get a Cat 3 out of this, and a Cat 3 out of this, and a Cat is only 11 mph above what is currently forecast. Also it’s ALREADY getting better organized, can you imagine how it can explode in the Gulf under Hot Bath Water?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3356 Postby alienstorm » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:13 pm

Here you can see long range radar key west the center just east of Isles of Youth (Cayo Largo)

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3357 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:17 pm

Laura certainly looks like she is going to be a problem for someone along the NW Gulf coast. One thing to watch is just how much the Saharan air layer currently to the north over Florida as seen on this loop might impact how strong she gets in the GOM. The skies are hazy in South Florida due to the SAL and it looks to be heading west. Hoping that there is just enough over the GOM to hold her back from bombing out:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3358 Postby TallyTracker » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:22 pm

An hour ago it looked like it could pass further south. The latest frames show it moving more wnw. May still hit the Isla de la Juventud (Isle of Youth).
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3359 Postby crimi481 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:22 pm

wow. Strong wind gusts here in Englewood fl. Lightning too
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3360 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:24 pm

tolakram wrote:saved radar loop

https://i.imgur.com/xyT1sIL.gif


Looks wnw there
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