ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MetroMike]

So this is just going to sit in the gulf for half of the week and fizzle out? I’m not sure if I’m buying that solution at this point

Well its not often we get a TC in the Gulf in November so conditions are not as optimal as they could be in Aug/Sept so I'm guessing some models predict massive shear or dry air that will make it magically disappear.

[StPeteMike]

So this is just going to sit in the gulf for half of the week and fizzle out? I’m not sure if I’m buying that solution at this point

That’s how I’m feeling. Would have to have major shear and dry air intrusion to cause such a breakdown of a system. Shear I can believe, but it would be from a trough that would pick Eta up.

[eastcoastFL]

Already getting some decent gusts. It’ll be breezy and then it will start howling for a minute or two. It’s been happening all day but now it’s a little louder.

[eastcoastFL]

[Iceresistance]

Eta the same at the 11 PM advisory, just about to make landfall over Cuba

[wxman57]

Well, what do you know? NHC's track this morning keeps Eta farther south of Florida and doesn't take it past 25N until around 85W. Just like my track from yesterday. Eta may never make landfall in Florida at all, unless you count its remnants as a landfall next weekend or early the following week. Still TS winds for Florida today/tonight, and maybe 6-8 more inches of rain for southern FL.

[Loveweather12]

Well, what do you know? NHC's track this morning keeps Eta farther south of Florida and doesn't take it past 25N until around 85W. Just like my track from yesterday. Eta may never make landfall in Florida at all, unless you count its remnants as a landfall next weekend or early the following week. Still TS winds for Florida today/tonight, and maybe 6-8 more inches of rain for southern FL.

It can and will change. These November storms are somethings and it might be a future threat down the road

[Weatherboy1]

I don’t know about missing all of Florida, to be Frank. ETA has been missing forecast/model points to the east for the last 24-36 hours. IF the turn starts even a small number of miles further east/north, ETA will clip the southern tip of the state. Seems to be emerging off Cuba east of several models’ forecasted points, for instance. We will see.

I should make clear I have ZERO expectation of a direct hit here in northern Palm Beach County. Only that the chance of, say, a landfall point as far north as Miami shouldn’t be ruled out.

[Nimbus]

That tiny ULL that is cutting off over western Cuba doesn't look very strong and the temporary ridging north of it will apparently be a little stronger than the earlier runs forecast. Lots of dry air in the western gulf for the next trough.

[Jr0d]

Well, what do you know? NHC's track this morning keeps Eta farther south of Florida and doesn't take it past 25N until around 85W. Just like my track from yesterday. Eta may never make landfall in Florida at all, unless you count its remnants as a landfall next weekend or early the following week. Still TS winds for Florida today/tonight, and maybe 6-8 more inches of rain for southern FL.

Pretty darn close to a Key West strike. We are at 24.56N. Definately going to be on the dirty side of it, and if Eta stalls and/or puts it in reverse like some model guidance is suggesting a little earlier, we will be in for a rough week.

That said it is currently sunny with squalls out on the gulf stream but relatively calm right now on the island. Kind of eerie feeling.

As expected very few conchs are taking this storm seriously, many will be in for a rude awakening tonight/tomorrow morning.

[wxman57]

I don’t know about missing all of Florida, to be Frank. ETA has been missing forecast/model points to the east for the last 24-36 hours. IF the turn starts even a small number of miles further east/north, ETA will clip the southern tip of the state. Seems to be emerging off Cuba east of several models’ forecasted points, for instance. We will see.

I should make clear I have ZERO expectation of a direct hit here in northern Palm Beach County. Only that the chance of, say, a landfall point as far north as Miami shouldn’t be ruled out.

Don't focus on the center. It doesn't matter if the center passes well south of the Keys, the 39+ mph winds will extend way up the Peninsula. It does matter as far as the core of stronger winds. Those will likely move over the Keys.

[wxman57]

Well, what do you know? NHC's track this morning keeps Eta farther south of Florida and doesn't take it past 25N until around 85W. Just like my track from yesterday. Eta may never make landfall in Florida at all, unless you count its remnants as a landfall next weekend or early the following week. Still TS winds for Florida today/tonight, and maybe 6-8 more inches of rain for southern FL.

Pretty darn close to a Key West strike. We are at 24.56N. Definately going to be on the dirty side of it, and if Eta stalls and/or puts it in reverse like some model guidance is suggesting a little earlier, we will be in for a rough week.

That said it is currently sunny with squalls out on the gulf stream but relatively calm right now on the island. Kind of eerie feeling.

As expected very few conchs are taking this storm seriously, many will be in for a rude awakening tonight/tomorrow morning.

Since your location isn't listed here on S2K, saying it's still sunny where you are tells us nothing. Key West? Miami? Orlando? You could update your profile...

[Jr0d]

Well, what do you know? NHC's track this morning keeps Eta farther south of Florida and doesn't take it past 25N until around 85W. Just like my track from yesterday. Eta may never make landfall in Florida at all, unless you count its remnants as a landfall next weekend or early the following week. Still TS winds for Florida today/tonight, and maybe 6-8 more inches of rain for southern FL.

Pretty darn close to a Key West strike. We are at 24.56N. Definately going to be on the dirty side of it, and if Eta stalls and/or puts it in reverse like some model guidance is suggesting a little earlier, we will be in for a rough week.

That said it is currently sunny with squalls out on the gulf stream but relatively calm right now on the island. Kind of eerie feeling.

As expected very few conchs are taking this storm seriously, many will be in for a rude awakening tonight/tomorrow morning.

Since your location isn't listed here on S2K, saying it's still sunny where you are tells us nothing. Key West? Miami? Orlando? You could update your profile...

Key West...though clouds are starting to fill in quickly now. I woke up to sunshine.

[marciacubed]

Here in Boynton Beach we have had a few gusts this morning and a couple bouts of hard rain. Gray skies and no sun. Glad the Dolphins don’t have a home game today

[Steve H.]

Looks like the center is just moving off the north coast of Cuba now. A lot of deep convection building in.

[jlauderdal]

2.5 since yesterday at midnight, i need 5.5 more to hit my over, I'm liking the chances

[aspen]

Looks like Eta is going to end up as yet another Gulf hurricane, and perhaps even a major AGAIN if the GFS and HWRF are to be believed. It’s like this storm wants to visit all of the TC hotspots this year.

[Weatherboy1]

I don’t know about missing all of Florida, to be Frank. ETA has been missing forecast/model points to the east for the last 24-36 hours. IF the turn starts even a small number of miles further east/north, ETA will clip the southern tip of the state. Seems to be emerging off Cuba east of several models’ forecasted points, for instance. We will see.

I should make clear I have ZERO expectation of a direct hit here in northern Palm Beach County. Only that the chance of, say, a landfall point as far north as Miami shouldn’t be ruled out.

Don't focus on the center. It doesn't matter if the center passes well south of the Keys, the 39+ mph winds will extend way up the Peninsula. It does matter as far as the core of stronger winds. Those will likely move over the Keys.

Oh, for sure. I just figure the closer the landfall point/turn point is to me (in Jupiter), the stronger the winds we'll get up here. I certainly don't expect hurricane force winds. But am curious how high up the "TS winds" scale we'll get ... and a landfall near Miami would likely mean we get more than a landfall in, say, Key West

[hipshot]

Pretty darn close to a Key West strike. We are at 24.56N. Definately going to be on the dirty side of it, and if Eta stalls and/or puts it in reverse like some model guidance is suggesting a little earlier, we will be in for a rough week.

That said it is currently sunny with squalls out on the gulf stream but relatively calm right now on the island. Kind of eerie feeling.

As expected very few conchs are taking this storm seriously, many will be in for a rude awakening tonight/tomorrow morning.

Since your location isn't listed here on S2K, saying it's still sunny where you are tells us nothing. Key West? Miami? Orlando? You could update your profile...

Key West...though clouds are starting to fill in quickly now. I woke up to sunshine.

I Googled Cayo Hueso and the "Bone Island" (Key West) popped up, very interesting!

[Steve H.]

Cloud tops have warmed considerably after moving over Cuba, so the island has affected it.