ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy just went thru a massive vortical hot tower on the eyewall
44 mm/hr rain rate
985.5 mb in the eye

Sorry Aric, looked closer and your right. They just missed the eye.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AF303 found some 73 knot winds, but flagged.

[DestinHurricane]

No hurricane watch for Broward and Miami-Dade? Thought it would at least extend down to Broward.

The angle of approach and tilt of the storm lessens thread down south of us.
If it ends up east of us, PBC will just get the spitting rain and gusty conditions.
Of course if it comes inland by Boca......

I don't think it will come inland near boca. Seems to be headed NW now. North of Jupiter looking most likely.

[NDG]

Shear is def still present... you can see the very healthy cirrus outflow expanding to the North and then it just...stops when you get to the Western edge of the storm. Hopefully this + SAL will keep Isaias in check

The SAL has been moving westward ahead of it, but enough gets left behind for it to disrupt Isaias every once in a while, but the core is holding ever since this morning.

[EquusStorm]

Tops appeared to have warmed there for a bit but wow what an explosion over the center now. D-max is going to be very interesting.

[NDG]

Pretty strong NW quadrant.
Unflagged 67 knot SFMR

231300 2258N 07600W 8416 01500 0018 +154 +088 044058 062 064 031 03
231330 2257N 07559W 8445 01460 9999 +162 +094 058063 070 064 027 00
231400 2257N 07558W 8436 01461 9982 +170 +100 056051 058 067 014 00
231430 2256N 07556W 8432 01450 9967 +173 +106 049044 051 073 022 03
231500 2255N 07555W 8436 01437 9950 +173 +112 046038 044 073 023 03

[psyclone]

So what is it? Dry/SAL/shear keeping Isaias in check still or the hurricane getting better organized faster than expected?

you have an impressive but skimpy core that is doing well now but vulnerable to shear/dry air intrusions. between that and the angle of approach...lots of options are reasonably on the table..from additional intensification to a rapid degradation. i don't envy the forecasters on this one. it's a tough one for sure.

[hipshot]

Holy hot tower batman! Look at that! Could deepen fairly quickly here. Recon is there at the perfect time.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 938&y=1086

I'm still trying to figure out what that big convective blob is off to the east that is attached to Izzy. Is it going to split off or something?

[northjaxpro]

AF303 found some 73 knot winds, but flagged.

Looking at that exploding hot tower, I certainly believe this!

[SteveM]

Tops appeared to have warmed there for a bit but wow what an explosion over the center now. D-max is going to be very interesting.

Please excuse my ignorance; I'm new here. What is D-max?

[KWT]

So what is it? Dry/SAL/shear keeping Isaias in check still or the hurricane getting better organized faster than expected?

you have an impressive but skimpy core that is doing well now but vulnerable to shear/dry air intrusions. between that and the angle of approach...lots of options are reasonably on the table..from additional intensification to a rapid degradation. i don't envy the forecasters on this one. it's a tough one for sure.

Pretty much all suggestions that have been offered up are valid depending on exactly what the background conditions do and how well the core holds together.

We could just as easily be looking at a 100-110kts cane as a 35-45kt TS this time 24hrs time, and anything inbetween frankly.

One thing to keep in mind, alot of storms this year have outperformed the models initial expectations...read into that what you will...something similar happened in 05 as well...

[Aric Dunn]

AF plane 988mb with 15kts winds. so 985 looks about right.

[NDG]

988mb pressure by AF recon is probably more accurate than NOAA's, but still a nice drop from earlier this morning. 72 knots flight level winds in the SE quadrant.

231700 2251N 07550W 8432 01403 9889 +212 +129 042007 015 023 000 00
231730 2249N 07549W 8428 01404 9884 +213 +137 211009 016 027 000 00
231800 2249N 07547W 8448 01387 9883 +221 +143 207021 025 034 000 03
231830 2248N 07546W 8425 01417 9888 +228 +149 208032 038 039 003 00
231900 2247N 07544W 8430 01423 9903 +220 +155 208054 060 049 004 00
231930 2246N 07543W 8436 01427 9914 +223 +159 204069 072 052 003 00
232000 2246N 07541W 8427 01452 9938 +208 +162 198069 072 053 002 00
232030 2245N 07540W 8430 01463 9957 +198 +163 196065 069 052 003 00
232100 2244N 07538W 8417 01489 9975 +192 +161 197063 065 047 004 03
232130 2243N 07537W 8424 01486 9986 +187 +157 198062 063 044 005 00
232200 2242N 07536W 8437 01480 9993 +189 +152 196062 065 047 004 00
232230 2241N 07535W 8432 01493 0003 +183 +149 196059 061 046 002 00

[HurricaneFrances04]

Dropsonde has 71 knts at the surface in the NW quad

[tolakram]

Tops appeared to have warmed there for a bit but wow what an explosion over the center now. D-max is going to be very interesting.

Please excuse my ignorance; I'm new here. What is D-max?

Hi SteveM

Diurnal Maximum, simply time of best convection.

[psyclone]

So what is it? Dry/SAL/shear keeping Isaias in check still or the hurricane getting better organized faster than expected?

you have an impressive but skimpy core that is doing well now but vulnerable to shear/dry air intrusions. between that and the angle of approach...lots of options are reasonably on the table..from additional intensification to a rapid degradation. i don't envy the forecasters on this one. it's a tough one for sure.

Pretty much all suggestions that have been offered up are valid depending on exactly what the background conditions do and how well the core holds together.

We could just as easily be looking at a 100-110kts cane as a 35-45kt TS this time 24hrs time, and anything inbetween frankly.

One thing to keep in mind, alot of storms this year have outperformed the models initial expectations...read into that what you will...something similar happened in 05 as well...

That's a great point. I just got roasted by underestimating Hanna...so.. BTW nice to see you and other old school veterans in the mix. should be a spicy season. Thunder off in the distance out my window right now...feels like August eve for sure..

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dropsonde has 71 knts at the surface in the NW quad

Probably a bump up to 70 knots soon.

[EquusStorm]

Tops appeared to have warmed there for a bit but wow what an explosion over the center now. D-max is going to be very interesting.

Please excuse my ignorance; I'm new here. What is D-max?

D-max is the time of day (night in this case, and the opposite of d-min) in the diurnal cycle where convection tends to fire more effectively especially in developing systems, usually see a big flare-up overnight... from what I gather at least lol

[CourierPR]

No hurricane watch for Broward and Miami-Dade? Thought it would at least extend down to Broward.

The angle of approach and tilt of the storm lessens thread down south of us.
If it ends up east of us, PBC will just get the spitting rain and gusty conditions.
Of course if it comes inland by Boca......

I don't think it will come inland near boca. Seems to be headed NW now. North of Jupiter looking most likely.

There is a hurricane watch in effect in Broward County.

[AutoPenalti]

WNW movement at the moment, loops will be start to occur as it continues to strengthen. So it will seems like it’s moving NNW or NW.