ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3361 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:25 pm

Laura doesn't look 100% totally stacked at the moment based on what we know where the LLC and where the greatest mid level turning is being seen on the radar, though thats far from uncommon given the amount of land it has been over. Its going to get there at some point and when it does the set-up looks good to me for a decent doubt of intensification.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3362 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:28 pm

crimi481 wrote:wow. Strong wind gusts here in Englewood fl. Lightning too


It looks to be Marco related on radar.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3363 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:30 pm

KWT wrote:Laura doesn't look 100% totally stacked at the moment based on what we know where the LLC and where the greatest mid level turning is being seen on the radar, though thats far from uncommon given the amount of land it has been over. Its going to get there at some point and when it does the set-up looks good to me for a decent doubt of intensification.

I believe the final recon pass found that the center was slightly misaligned — not by a huge amount, but enough to be noticed. Slightly lower pressures were found a bit N/NNE of the LLC.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3364 Postby dantonlsu » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:34 pm

Anyone ever hear of BAMWX - Their twitter is worth a look.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3365 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:41 pm

After seeing that 12z euro after landfall (seriously check out how strong it remains and where it goes), deep inland impacts seem likely if it ramps up quite a bit.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3366 Postby Michele B » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:43 pm

Sanibel wrote:Wow...We're getting blasted by the outer squall band right now...Strong gusts and rain!...


I agree, but if you look at long range radar, these seem to be coming from a "train" trailing along behind MARCO!!!
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3367 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:47 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:Seems like Laura is reforming AGAIN even further offshore...when doesn’t she reform her centers :lol: :lol:

I was just going to ask how Laura survived crossing the length of Hispaniola and then eastern Cuba, wasn't Fay the only other storm to go lengthwise and then survive in modern times? I just reviewed Fay and forgot how crazy that storm was, developed an eye over Florida. With the track of Laura showing its land interaction, I suspect its core may not have been over Hispaniola that whole time but I wasn't following so can someone chime in about the center being further south?


Georges in 1998. Ran over just about every piece of land it could find and still survived. :lol:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3368 Postby abk_0710 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:48 pm

What areas would you say still need to watch for landfall? Should SELA be concerned?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3369 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:49 pm

aspen wrote:
KWT wrote:Laura doesn't look 100% totally stacked at the moment based on what we know where the LLC and where the greatest mid level turning is being seen on the radar, though thats far from uncommon given the amount of land it has been over. Its going to get there at some point and when it does the set-up looks good to me for a decent doubt of intensification.


I believe the final recon pass found that the center was slightly misaligned — not by a huge amount, but enough to be noticed. Slightly lower pressures were found a bit N/NNE of the LLC.

I’m thinking the pressure is something like 996 to 998 based on that they left just before getting to the center, this is intensifying some and it’s possible it could be a hurricane for the tip of Cuba
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3370 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:50 pm

HurricaneEnzo wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:Seems like Laura is reforming AGAIN even further offshore...when doesn’t she reform her centers :lol: :lol:

I was just going to ask how Laura survived crossing the length of Hispaniola and then eastern Cuba, wasn't Fay the only other storm to go lengthwise and then survive in modern times? I just reviewed Fay and forgot how crazy that storm was, developed an eye over Florida. With the track of Laura showing its land interaction, I suspect its core may not have been over Hispaniola that whole time but I wasn't following so can someone chime in about the center being further south?


Georges in 1998. Ran over just about every piece of land it could find and still survived. :lol:


Laura had a very broad circulation over Hispaniola, that is why she had no problem surviving it. And Cuba help consolidate her broad circulation into the tighter LLC we are now seeing, some storms need land interaction to actually help define it's circulation, this is one of those times.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3371 Postby rigbyrigz » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:52 pm

Michele B wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Wow...We're getting blasted by the outer squall band right now...Strong gusts and rain!...


I agree, but if you look at long range radar, these seem to be coming from a "train" trailing along behind MARCO!!!

Yeah I already got deleted by mod for "discussing" our Big Bend impact (and quite a windy rainy wallop) from you-know-who... for a wee storm it packed a wide punch. Guess Laura will do the same, as she's broad where a broad should be broad broad broad. (Cmon thats a famous song from Bway South Pacific, ok ok off topic, err, wrong ocean, sorry! delete coming.)
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3372 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:52 pm

abk_0710 wrote:What areas would you say still need to watch for landfall? Should SELA be concerned?


I'm not a meteorologist, but I would say New Orleans is in the clear for landfall, but could still get some impact. I think the most likely landfall, looking at the current models (ensembles), is in between Beaumont and Intercoastal City.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3373 Postby tailgater » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:57 pm

During this lull in HH missions, I’d like to give those men and women a big shout out. If someone follows them on twitter , please let them know S2K appreciates them.
Btw if they need a crew chief, I’m available. Lol. I worked on some of them in AF Reserve about 35 yrs ago.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3374 Postby Cerlin » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:58 pm

I still honestly don’t think landfall of any kind on Cuba will make an impact on Laura’s ability to strengthen.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3375 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:03 pm

Blinhart wrote:
abk_0710 wrote:What areas would you say still need to watch for landfall? Should SELA be concerned?


I'm not a meteorologist, but I would say New Orleans is in the clear for landfall, but could still get some impact. I think the most likely landfall, looking at the current models (ensembles), is in between Beaumont and Intercoastal City.



I would not let my gaurd down anywhere in Louisiana. We are a “normal” 60 hrs model/nhc error from a Cameron Parish landfall swapping to a Houma/Terrebonne landfall. If a cat 3 his Houma New Orleans proper would see significant problems from the dirty side of the storm.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3376 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:08 pm

Since Marco is quickly falling apart, the likelihood of it affecting the future track of Laura is decreasing. Can't help to erode the ridge anymore.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3377 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:09 pm

It’s near the isle of youth, I wonder what they’re reporting
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3378 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:14 pm

Cerlin wrote:I still honestly don’t think landfall of any kind on Cuba will make an impact on Laura’s ability to strengthen.


If that area didn’t knock Charley down in 2004 it won’t really effect Laura hardly at all

By the way it seems as though the outflow is returning to the northern part of the system
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3379 Postby rigbyrigz » Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:14 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:It’s near the isle of youth, I wonder what they’re reporting

Local weather for there says 15mph winds from NW now, switching to 20mph out of SW over the next 3 hours. Then peaking at 31mph out of the south 3 hours after that, then grinding down. Plenty of rain ofc.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3380 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:19 pm

Agreed here, the northern outflow looks like it has flipped the on switch in the last few hours.

Hurricaneman wrote:
Cerlin wrote:I still honestly don’t think landfall of any kind on Cuba will make an impact on Laura’s ability to strengthen.


If that area didn’t knock Charley down in 2004 it won’t really effect Laura hardly at all

By the way it seems as though the outflow is returning to the northern part of the system
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