ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Laura doesn't look 100% totally stacked at the moment based on what we know where the LLC and where the greatest mid level turning is being seen on the radar, though thats far from uncommon given the amount of land it has been over. Its going to get there at some point and when it does the set-up looks good to me for a decent doubt of intensification.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
crimi481 wrote:wow. Strong wind gusts here in Englewood fl. Lightning too
It looks to be Marco related on radar.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
KWT wrote:Laura doesn't look 100% totally stacked at the moment based on what we know where the LLC and where the greatest mid level turning is being seen on the radar, though thats far from uncommon given the amount of land it has been over. Its going to get there at some point and when it does the set-up looks good to me for a decent doubt of intensification.
I believe the final recon pass found that the center was slightly misaligned — not by a huge amount, but enough to be noticed. Slightly lower pressures were found a bit N/NNE of the LLC.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Anyone ever hear of BAMWX - Their twitter is worth a look.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
After seeing that 12z euro after landfall (seriously check out how strong it remains and where it goes), deep inland impacts seem likely if it ramps up quite a bit.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Sanibel wrote:Wow...We're getting blasted by the outer squall band right now...Strong gusts and rain!...
I agree, but if you look at long range radar, these seem to be coming from a "train" trailing along behind MARCO!!!
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- HurricaneEnzo
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Cyclenall wrote:MarioProtVI wrote:Seems like Laura is reforming AGAIN even further offshore...when doesn’t she reform her centers![]()
I was just going to ask how Laura survived crossing the length of Hispaniola and then eastern Cuba, wasn't Fay the only other storm to go lengthwise and then survive in modern times? I just reviewed Fay and forgot how crazy that storm was, developed an eye over Florida. With the track of Laura showing its land interaction, I suspect its core may not have been over Hispaniola that whole time but I wasn't following so can someone chime in about the center being further south?
Georges in 1998. Ran over just about every piece of land it could find and still survived.

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
What areas would you say still need to watch for landfall? Should SELA be concerned?
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:KWT wrote:Laura doesn't look 100% totally stacked at the moment based on what we know where the LLC and where the greatest mid level turning is being seen on the radar, though thats far from uncommon given the amount of land it has been over. Its going to get there at some point and when it does the set-up looks good to me for a decent doubt of intensification.
I believe the final recon pass found that the center was slightly misaligned — not by a huge amount, but enough to be noticed. Slightly lower pressures were found a bit N/NNE of the LLC.
I’m thinking the pressure is something like 996 to 998 based on that they left just before getting to the center, this is intensifying some and it’s possible it could be a hurricane for the tip of Cuba
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
HurricaneEnzo wrote:Cyclenall wrote:MarioProtVI wrote:Seems like Laura is reforming AGAIN even further offshore...when doesn’t she reform her centers![]()
I was just going to ask how Laura survived crossing the length of Hispaniola and then eastern Cuba, wasn't Fay the only other storm to go lengthwise and then survive in modern times? I just reviewed Fay and forgot how crazy that storm was, developed an eye over Florida. With the track of Laura showing its land interaction, I suspect its core may not have been over Hispaniola that whole time but I wasn't following so can someone chime in about the center being further south?
Georges in 1998. Ran over just about every piece of land it could find and still survived.
Laura had a very broad circulation over Hispaniola, that is why she had no problem surviving it. And Cuba help consolidate her broad circulation into the tighter LLC we are now seeing, some storms need land interaction to actually help define it's circulation, this is one of those times.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Michele B wrote:Sanibel wrote:Wow...We're getting blasted by the outer squall band right now...Strong gusts and rain!...
I agree, but if you look at long range radar, these seem to be coming from a "train" trailing along behind MARCO!!!
Yeah I already got deleted by mod for "discussing" our Big Bend impact (and quite a windy rainy wallop) from you-know-who... for a wee storm it packed a wide punch. Guess Laura will do the same, as she's broad where a broad should be broad broad broad. (Cmon thats a famous song from Bway South Pacific, ok ok off topic, err, wrong ocean, sorry! delete coming.)
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
abk_0710 wrote:What areas would you say still need to watch for landfall? Should SELA be concerned?
I'm not a meteorologist, but I would say New Orleans is in the clear for landfall, but could still get some impact. I think the most likely landfall, looking at the current models (ensembles), is in between Beaumont and Intercoastal City.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
During this lull in HH missions, I’d like to give those men and women a big shout out. If someone follows them on twitter , please let them know S2K appreciates them.
Btw if they need a crew chief, I’m available. Lol. I worked on some of them in AF Reserve about 35 yrs ago.
Btw if they need a crew chief, I’m available. Lol. I worked on some of them in AF Reserve about 35 yrs ago.
Last edited by tailgater on Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I still honestly don’t think landfall of any kind on Cuba will make an impact on Laura’s ability to strengthen.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Blinhart wrote:abk_0710 wrote:What areas would you say still need to watch for landfall? Should SELA be concerned?
I'm not a meteorologist, but I would say New Orleans is in the clear for landfall, but could still get some impact. I think the most likely landfall, looking at the current models (ensembles), is in between Beaumont and Intercoastal City.
I would not let my gaurd down anywhere in Louisiana. We are a “normal” 60 hrs model/nhc error from a Cameron Parish landfall swapping to a Houma/Terrebonne landfall. If a cat 3 his Houma New Orleans proper would see significant problems from the dirty side of the storm.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Since Marco is quickly falling apart, the likelihood of it affecting the future track of Laura is decreasing. Can't help to erode the ridge anymore.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It’s near the isle of youth, I wonder what they’re reporting
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Cerlin wrote:I still honestly don’t think landfall of any kind on Cuba will make an impact on Laura’s ability to strengthen.
If that area didn’t knock Charley down in 2004 it won’t really effect Laura hardly at all
By the way it seems as though the outflow is returning to the northern part of the system
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hurricaneman wrote:It’s near the isle of youth, I wonder what they’re reporting
Local weather for there says 15mph winds from NW now, switching to 20mph out of SW over the next 3 hours. Then peaking at 31mph out of the south 3 hours after that, then grinding down. Plenty of rain ofc.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Agreed here, the northern outflow looks like it has flipped the on switch in the last few hours.
Hurricaneman wrote:Cerlin wrote:I still honestly don’t think landfall of any kind on Cuba will make an impact on Laura’s ability to strengthen.
If that area didn’t knock Charley down in 2004 it won’t really effect Laura hardly at all
By the way it seems as though the outflow is returning to the northern part of the system
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