ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

This forecast is of generally low confidence,
however, and significant changes could be required in later advisory packages depending on model trends.

[ElectricStorm]

Well this will certainly be an interesting first forecast. I'll guess they'll be showing a Cat 1 into CA with it starting to recurve at the end of the forecast

You nailed it!

I swear I didn't look at it! In all seriousness as we all know here, a Cat 1 on the first advisory many times turns out to be much stronger...

[GeneratorPower]

:eek:

This forecast is of generally low confidence,
however, and significant changes could be required in later advisory packages depending on model trends.

This is what makes the hobby interesting. I love it.

[ClarCari]

Well this will certainly be an interesting first forecast. I'll guess they'll be showing a Cat 1 into CA with it starting to recurve at the end of the forecast

You nailed it!

I swear I didn't look at it! In all seriousness as we all know here, a Cat 1 on the first advisory many times turns out to be much stronger...

Well I’m just giving you more kudos for guessing a recurve at the very end hehe

A stronger system can also change how much it weakens and how deep into CA it goes.

[Shell Mound]

You nailed it!

I swear I didn't look at it! In all seriousness as we all know here, a Cat 1 on the first advisory many times turns out to be much stronger...

Well I’m just giving you more kudos for guessing a recurve at the very end hehe

A stronger system can also change how much it weakens and how deep into CA it goes.

The intensity forecast hinges greatly on whether or
not the cyclone's center moves inland over Central America, but
regardless, the system is expected to be a hurricane when it
approaches the Honduras and Nicaragua coasts in a few days.

[ElectricStorm]

Man so many different possibilities with this storm (seems to be the theme this season). I can see 3 distinct possibilities here:
1) TD29/Eta becomes a hurricane, landfalls and dissipates over CA
2) TD29/Eta becomes a hurricane, moves over CA, or stalls just offshore before moving NE
3) TD29/Eta becomes a hurricane, landfalls in CA, dissipates, moisture moves NE back over water, and develops into new TD30/Theta before moving NE

Either way it looks like a lock for a hurricane with a good shot at a major at this point.

[LarryWx]

From NHC 1st advisory, it is good they put this out per model consensus and hopefully will lead to preparation that will save lives:

"RAINFALL: Through Thursday afternoon, the depression is expected to
cause 5 to 10 inches of rain, with local 15-inch amounts, across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and possibly the southern coast of
Hispaniola. Across portions of Central America, 10 to 15 inches of
rain, with local amounts to 25 inches are expected. This rainfall
should lead to flash flooding and river flooding, and could cause
landslides in areas of higher terrain."

[Kazmit]

Man so many different possibilities with this storm (seems to be the theme this season). I can see 3 distinct possibilities here:
1) TD29/Eta becomes a hurricane, landfalls and dissipates over CA
2) TD29/Eta becomes a hurricane, moves over CA, or stalls just offshore before moving NE
3) TD29/Eta becomes a hurricane, landfalls in CA, dissipates, remnant moisture moves NE back over water, and develops into TD30/Theta before moving NE

Either way it looks like a lock for a hurricane with a good shot at a major at this point.

The remnants would still be named Eta.

[ElectricStorm]

Man so many different possibilities with this storm (seems to be the theme this season). I can see 3 distinct possibilities here:
1) TD29/Eta becomes a hurricane, landfalls and dissipates over CA
2) TD29/Eta becomes a hurricane, moves over CA, or stalls just offshore before moving NE
3) TD29/Eta becomes a hurricane, landfalls in CA, dissipates, remnant moisture moves NE back over water, and develops into TD30/Theta before moving NE

Either way it looks like a lock for a hurricane with a good shot at a major at this point.

The remnants would still be named Eta.

I edited it. I meant that a whole new cyclone could form

[Blown Away]

First cone. Peak forecast at 75 knots

https://i.imgur.com/eh5BfG3.png

Looks like the 12z Euro track through 120 hours and/or TVCN.

[LarryWx]

First cone. Peak forecast at 75 knots

https://i.imgur.com/eh5BfG3.png

Looks like the 12z Euro track through 120 hours.

It suggests 72+ hours of slow movement over or near CA. Would be terrible

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1322644886097518592

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the NHC is siding with the Euro and the model consensus.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the NHC is siding with the Euro and the model consensus.

Well with good reasoning:

Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the
depression's future track for the first 48 hours or so. The cyclone
is expected to continue westward for the first 36 hours and then
slow down and turn west-southwestward by 48 hours as it approaches
the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, in response to a building
ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. After that time, however, there is
significant divergence in the models. For example, the ECWMF and
its ensemble members continue on a faster westward motion across
Central America, while the GFS and its ensemble members stall the
system over the western Caribbean Sea through day 5. Given this
discrepancy, the NHC official track forecast shows a slow motion on
days 3 through 5, and brings the cyclone's center slowly across
northern Nicaragua, more or less in line with the multi-model
consensus aids. This forecast is of generally low confidence,
however, and significant changes could be required in later advisory
packages depending on model trends.

[Nimbus]

First cone. Peak forecast at 75 knots

https://i.imgur.com/eh5BfG3.png

Looks like the 12z Euro track through 120 hours and/or TVCN.

Looks like yesterdays HWRF with the possibility that some energy could survive to emerge off Belize *if* it doesn't stall in the mountains of CA or cross into the Pacific. I'm more concerned about the Goni tragedy with the denser population though.

[Shell Mound]

This thing is just begging to execute a counterclockwise stall and loop directly over the CA coastline (not well inland) before emerging back over water.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

This already looks like Eta

[Blown Away]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1322644886097518592

Good job Phil, you nailed the season forecast!!!

[Deshaunrob17]

This already looks like Eta

So if the general model consensus turns out to be right, we might see a yellow circle in the Western Caribbean by Monday from the NHC

[Iceresistance]

Man so many different possibilities with this storm (seems to be the theme this season). I can see 3 distinct possibilities here:
1) TD29/Eta becomes a hurricane, landfalls and dissipates over CA
2) TD29/Eta becomes a hurricane, moves over CA, or stalls just offshore before moving NE
3) TD29/Eta becomes a hurricane, landfalls in CA, dissipates, moisture moves NE back over water, and develops into new TD30/Theta before moving NE

Either way it looks like a lock for a hurricane with a good shot at a major at this point.

But how strong?