ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

I think Isaias is likely to get bumped up to 70 kt/988 mbar for the 8pm intermediate advisory.

That was 1 mbar off, and I think I posted that as soon as the advisory came out.

[DestinHurricane]

this mornings vortex to the new AF recon vortex message..

heading is exactly 305 degrees.

Still heading for the south tip of Andros Island.

Hmm.. interesting. Do you expect it to turn more N soon?

No data present to suggest a heading change, at least beyond a wobble here or a wobble there. Steady as he goes...

Well then it seems to be headed left in the cone.

[tropicwatch]

According to recon, the eyewall is closed.

And it has become very concentric.

[Nore]

On lower and upper level WV loops it looks as if the CDO has expanded towards Cuba. Additionally, it looks as though there is more cirrus clouds pushing out ahead of it.

is this indicative of a better storm outflow in the short term?

[TheStormExpert]

Shear is increasing out ahead of Isaias.

[Nimbus]

8 PM wording used the term near, not near or over the east coast of Florida.
Storm surge is expected close to high tide and of course there will be the usual rain related flooding in those areas that are prone to that.

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft
After the forecast slowdown we are more likely to see the shift to the NNW.

[toad strangler]

SMALL core

[rigbyrigz]

Thanks to all for expert and other comments. So 8PM heading is 310 (from 305 earlier). Is this a significant westward "wobble", or just almost nothing? I know a few degrees could make a difference to Broward where my 85 year old alone Mom is.

[Hurricane Mike]

This storm really is back and forth. I've been thinking Andros, then Florida landfall all day. Weathermen in the Carolinas have been downplaying this because it's had Florida written on it all day.

What's the thinking here? Is it going to hit Florida or not? A miss may once again make Floridians complacent.

[Aric Dunn]

Shear is increasing out ahead of Isaias.

https://i.ibb.co/NTYNXZH/3-D03-E810-D028-47-C5-A8-B3-0481-EEF334-DB.gif

https://i.ibb.co/FYQLdrZ/8-DE3-BAC3-4-C38-4-B4-E-96-F5-B9-F031-D44250.gif

this is where it gets tricky. and where Stweart the other night said it looks like the shear may be a feed back issue.

and that looks more believable considering the current state of the outflow.

the shear map is showing shelf induced shear out ahead of its movement. I bet it shift NW with Isalsa moves.

[eastcoastFL]

this mornings vortex to the new AF recon vortex message..

heading is exactly 305 degrees.

Still heading for the south tip of Andros Island.

Hmm.. interesting. Do you expect it to turn more N soon?

Nhc is saying it’ll keep chugging NW for at least another 36 hrs

[eastcoastFL]

This storm really is back and forth. I've been thinking Andros, then Florida landfall all day. Weathermen in the Carolinas have been downplaying this because it's had Florida written on it all day.

What's the thinking here? Is it going to hit Florida or not? A miss may once again make Floridians complacent.

It can hit Florida and still wreak havoc on NC. It’s happened plenty before.

[Camerooski]

Shear is increasing out ahead of Isaias.

https://i.ibb.co/NTYNXZH/3-D03-E810-D028-47-C5-A8-B3-0481-EEF334-DB.gif

https://i.ibb.co/FYQLdrZ/8-DE3-BAC3-4-C38-4-B4-E-96-F5-B9-F031-D44250.gif

this is where it gets tricky. and where Stweart the other night said it looks like the shear may be a feed back issue.

and that looks more believable considering the current state of the outflow.

the shear map is showing shelf induced shear out ahead of its movement. I bet it shift NW with Isalsa moves.

That's interesting, Aric can you provide some thoughts on what you think a peak intensity could be on Isaias' nearest approach to S FL?

[eastcoastFL]

Thanks to all for expert and other comments. So 8PM heading is 310 (from 305 earlier). Is this a significant westward "wobble", or just almost nothing? I know a few degrees could make a difference to Broward where my 85 year old alone Mom is.

It shouldn’t mean any difference for broward. Mom should be safe, is there someone that can put her shutters up? If it’s not too bad I could try and get down there tomorrow morning.

[rigbyrigz]

Pure "NW" is 315. NNW I guess ends at 292. So there's is quite a range of NW paths I think that might make the difference from Dade to Broward to Palm Beach. Hence my earlier query as to the change from 5PM heading 305 to 8PM heading 310 is merely an inconsequential wobble, since it's so close in? Or is it meaningful?

[jaxfladude]

So will the overnight models into tomorrow morning finally give us what impacts Isaias has for CONUS and prayers for those already impacted....hope the Bahamas make it through as best as possible

[chaser1]

On lower and upper level WV loops it looks as if the CDO has expanded towards Cuba. Additionally, it looks as though there is more cirrus clouds pushing out ahead of it.

is this indicative of a better storm outflow in the short term?

Yes, but of greatest concern is how well is it beginning to wrap convection around to its west.... and whether the outflow is becoming thicker and more impressive to it's west.

[rigbyrigz]

Thanks to all for expert and other comments. So 8PM heading is 310 (from 305 earlier). Is this a significant westward "wobble", or just almost nothing? I know a few degrees could make a difference to Broward where my 85 year old alone Mom is.

It shouldn’t mean any difference for broward. Mom should be safe, is there someone that can put her shutters up? If it’s not too bad I could try and get down there tomorrow morning.

Thanks for the offer!!! and info! Mom in a condo 2 miles from ocean so no shutters. Sister is a mile from the ocean in a house, divorced 60's and 5 dogs, put her own up. I'll remember you next storm, I will gladly PayPal you to help her next time if you are willing able. Best wishes!! Good Luck.

[CronkPSU]

Pure "NW" is 315. NNW I guess ends at 292. So there's is quite a range of NW paths I think that might make the difference from Dade to Broward to Palm Beach. Hence my earlier query as to the change from 5PM heading 305 to 8PM heading 310 is merely an inconsequential wobble, since it's so close in? Or is it meaningful?

WNW = West-Northwest (282-303 degrees) NW = Northwest (304-326 degrees) NNW = North-Northwest (327-348 degrees)

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1289353335611392001