ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3441 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:01 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I think the NHC position might just a little too far south....


Thank you, even the radar from Key West shows the circulation further north.
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cfisher

Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3442 Postby cfisher » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:03 pm

NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I think the NHC position might just a little too far south....


Thank you, even the radar from Key West shows the circulation further north.


That's not the main circulation
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3443 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:04 pm

cfisher wrote:
NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I think the NHC position might just a little too far south....


Thank you, even the radar from Key West shows the circulation further north.


That's not the main circulation

I disagree. Havana surface has switched to the east. and there is a massive feeder band going through the NHC position.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3444 Postby Rail Dawg » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:07 pm

Blinhart wrote:
So where are you planning on going to as of right now? I'm sure you can find hotels here in Crowley or in Jennings, which would give you a chance of going down to Hwy 14, I wouldn't suggest going any further south than that because of the potential Storm Surge.


When chasing it is always to a parking lot garage nearest landfall. The height above ground and the cement stairwells are a great location. Am still analyzing Laura and I always sleep in the truck. Hotels are impossible except for the news crews who always seem to end up with luxury accommodations lol.

In Michael there were some young chasers with me in the parking garage in Panama City. We knew the eye was going to be about 5 miles to our east (Mexico Beach) and they were determined to go see it. I told them VERY emphatically that they were risking their lives. They were live-streaming on YouTube. They went.

Sure enough I watched the live-stream of their car getting slammed with storm-surge waves and then floating. They bailed and went through the 185 mph winds in a house that they found. I watched houses and businesses explode from the gusts where I was at in the eyewall.

The moral of the story is chasing is a high-risk adventure but if you start small, learn the ropes, have a plan and have an escape plan the risks are greatly reduced.

Chuck
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3445 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:08 pm

cfisher wrote:
NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I think the NHC position might just a little too far south....


Thank you, even the radar from Key West shows the circulation further north.


That's not the main circulation


Recon is on its way to confirm where the circulation is but I am not sure if it will be in time before the circulation goes inland again, we shall see in later this evening.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3446 Postby Nederlander » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:10 pm

Image
Pretty easy to see here. This radar site is on the Island of Youth.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3447 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:11 pm

aspen wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Aite, now will the NHC finally bump this to major hurricane strength in the next hour or will they first see how it fairs with the NW tip of Cuba?

I’m thinking they’ll go with a peak of 95 kt for this advisory, and then bump it to a MH peak once it finally clears Cuba.


Close. 90kts for now . I’m still pretty sure that M will be on the map at some point
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3448 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:13 pm

NDG wrote:
cfisher wrote:
NDG wrote:
Thank you, even the radar from Key West shows the circulation further north.


That's not the main circulation


Recon is on its way to confirm where the circulation is but I am not sure if it will be in time before the circulation goes inland again, we shall see in later this evening.


I think it is safe to say where the center is..

This is a composite loop of all four nearby Cuban radars. .

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3449 Postby cfisher » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:14 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
cfisher wrote:
NDG wrote:
Thank you, even the radar from Key West shows the circulation further north.


That's not the main circulation

I disagree. Havana surface has switched to the east. and there is a massive feeder band going through the NHC position.

Link?
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cfisher

Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3450 Postby cfisher » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
NDG wrote:
cfisher wrote:
That's not the main circulation


Recon is on its way to confirm where the circulation is but I am not sure if it will be in time before the circulation goes inland again, we shall see in later this evening.


I think it is safe to say where the center is..

This is a composite loop of all four nearby Cuban radars. .

https://i.ibb.co/WsBdxW0/4.gif

That's only a surface low. I should clarify, I think the broader mean circulation will be tugged south by convection.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3451 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:19 pm

I still wonder if Marco’s remains will create a weakness
for Laura and draw her northward more than expected.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3452 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:19 pm

cfisher wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
cfisher wrote:
That's not the main circulation

I disagree. Havana surface has switched to the east. and there is a massive feeder band going through the NHC position.

Link?

METARs: https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar
Cuban radar sites: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3453 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:19 pm

Stormcenter wrote:I still wonder if Marco’s remains will create a weakness
for Laurel and draw her northward more than expected.


It is still within the realm of possibilities.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3454 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:21 pm

MBryant wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
MBryant wrote:I made a precautionary reservation for tomorrow to Friday about 200 miles north, just in case. I like options.

Port Arthur Evacuation is now being reported on Radio. 6AM tomorrow.


Cameron Parish is under a Mandatory Evacuation.

That whole parish just about goes underwater with a high tide. Parts of Cameron parish are actually due south of us in Orange. The Sabine meanders northeast from it's mouth before heading more northerly.


I know all this, I crab in that area.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3455 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:21 pm

One thing is for sure, this circulation is way better wrapped up than the models were depicting.
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ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3456 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:21 pm

It has gotten better definition from being over water...

One last west Cuba mountains speed bump and then the Gulf...
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3457 Postby sponger » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:24 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
So where are you planning on going to as of right now? I'm sure you can find hotels here in Crowley or in Jennings, which would give you a chance of going down to Hwy 14, I wouldn't suggest going any further south than that because of the potential Storm Surge.


When chasing it is always to a parking lot garage nearest landfall. The height above ground and the cement stairwells are a great location. Am still analyzing Laura and I always sleep in the truck. Hotels are impossible except for the news crews who always seem to end up with luxury accommodations lol.

In Michael there were some young chasers with me in the parking garage in Panama City. We knew the eye was going to be about 5 miles to our east (Mexico Beach) and they were determined to go see it. I told them VERY emphatically that they were risking their lives. They were live-streaming on YouTube. They went.

Sure enough I watched the live-stream of their car getting slammed with storm-surge waves and then floating. They bailed and went through the 185 mph winds in a house that they found. I watched houses and businesses explode from the gusts where I was at in the eyewall.

The moral of the story is chasing is a high-risk adventure but if you start small, learn the ropes, have a plan and have an escape plan the risks are greatly reduced.

Chuck


Yes, Brett Adair. It is still on his facebook page. I watched it happen live as well and it was terrifying. They were actually in Port St Joe getting some amazing footage when their cable sponsor in Atlanta demanded they get the eye wall. They only survived due to stopping enroute to view warehouse damage. The footage driving towards Mexico Beach was some of the scariest I have seen. Just happened to be in front of a cinder block retaining wall when the surge rolled in. Here is the end. A must see! Get your headphones on!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3Nvx2mNqFs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XA5OQHWx1Y
Last edited by sponger on Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:27 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3458 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:25 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
So where are you planning on going to as of right now? I'm sure you can find hotels here in Crowley or in Jennings, which would give you a chance of going down to Hwy 14, I wouldn't suggest going any further south than that because of the potential Storm Surge.


When chasing it is always to a parking lot garage nearest landfall. The height above ground and the cement stairwells are a great location. Am still analyzing Laura and I always sleep in the truck. Hotels are impossible except for the news crews who always seem to end up with luxury accommodations lol.

In Michael there were some young chasers with me in the parking garage in Panama City. We knew the eye was going to be about 5 miles to our east (Mexico Beach) and they were determined to go see it. I told them VERY emphatically that they were risking their lives. They were live-streaming on YouTube. They went.

Sure enough I watched the live-stream of their car getting slammed with storm-surge waves and then floating. They bailed and went through the 185 mph winds in a house that they found. I watched houses and businesses explode from the gusts where I was at in the eyewall.

The moral of the story is chasing is a high-risk adventure but if you start small, learn the ropes, have a plan and have an escape plan the risks are greatly reduced.

Chuck


The problem with if you want to do Cameron Parish, there is nothing there that would give you safety from a Cat 3-4 storm surge if it does come in at Sabine Pass, Vermillion Parish is the same way. You wouldn't have any secure locations that you would be able to use, they even evacuate the fire departments, there wouldn't be any place for you to stay. I was talking about for tomorrow night for you to stay and have a good night sleep before heading out Wednesday morning for you scout and find a secure spot.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3459 Postby Kazmit » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:27 pm

Looking better on the western side as new convection pops up there.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3460 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:28 pm

Marco is weakening drastically as he nears land, just as I suspected he would (given the upper-level setup). I hope and pray I'm wrong in my prediction that Laura will do the opposite (thanks to rapidly improving upper-level conditions) - strengthen explosively before landfall. :eek: :cry:

My thoughts are with everyone in Laura's projected path, stay safe. :sun:
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