ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Pretty thick strong storms on radar all around except to the south. Probably why only half of broward has watches

[chaser1]

Don't know exactly what's going on, but the symmetry is awful. No decent CDO at all right now and it's stretched from north to south.

Great outflow to it's north and east. In fact, that outflow is what is helping "east blob" ventilate. If Isaias were moving any faster it would be dead. There's dry air to its west and only it's own heat release will help continue to moisten up the atmosphere in advance and keep that dryer air at arms length. The other thing that I noticed is that the sole single feeder band into the hurricane and feeding up from the Caribbean, has been jacked by Isaias' evil twin (Blob "East").

Sooooo, we have no semblance of an eye (despite recon confirming an eye wall) probably due to overshooting tops. We have very restricted outflow to the west. No convergent feeder bands to aid inflow, and an equally convective mass immediately to it's east. I do not care if recon finds 980 mb pressures, what's key is how sustainable can a small storm survive while fighting light to moderate shear and very dry air. Maybe Isaias will become much more robust this evening and therefore impact the environment around it. If not though, I see it weakening and probably coming ashore on the Florida coastline as a stretched 50 mph T.S. It'll be fun to see how it plays out.

[tropicwatch]

Apparently Bahamas radar has gone down. Clarence Town on Long Island Bahamas is report sustained winds of 42mph gusts to 59.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EeS5XPRX0AE8wPm?format=png&name=large

I noticed that the radar was back up and that map is way off.

[wx98]

Extrap down to 986 on that pass

[northjaxpro]

Don't know exactly what's going on, but the symmetry is awful. No decent CDO at all right now and it's stretched from north to south.

Good Evening Pete!

Hi Jax!

Great to see you on the forum tonight as I am in overdrive working here from home monitoring the cyclone and doing last minute preps here for Isaias.

[gfsperpendicular]

The blob seems to be using Isaias' inflow and getting vented by that ULL instead of the storm itself. Once it dies (maybe when inflow cuts off?) Isaias might be able to strengthen more. That's my untrained impression, at least.

[eastcoastFL]

Starting to come into view on SFWMD radar, just gonna drop the link here as it’s my favorite resource when the storms get into striking distance

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... llite-loop

[wzrgirl1]

No hurricane watch for Broward and Miami-Dade?

There is one for Broward, not Miami-Dade.

In Pembroke Pines, not under a hurricane watch. A friend in Pompano is though, looks like only part of Broward.

Coastal Broward I believe.

[chaser1]

Can see the western periphery with a flat look where the trough is cutting off the UL High outflow. This Storm is now at the western edge of it’s UL High and about to get kicked by shear.

The G-IV sampled the area around the florida straights and near cuba.

winds from the 500 mb to 250 mb level ranged from 6 to 16 kts out of the WSW..

hardly enough to weaken it. if anything it will strengthen a little more then just maintain till landfall. Unless something changes.

I don't know Aric. Just wondering if that flow is an amply dryer air and acting as a bit of a mid to upper level cap. One of the reasons I think the UL outflow is so tepid on the west side may be directly related to a restricted upper level venting as the storm progresses in longitude. I'm thinking that perhaps the rising air in the column is immediately hitting some inhibiting cap as it tries to vent westward. To your point regarding the speed of those winds.... yeah, I agree one wouldn't think it by itself is that strong to simply shear apart a hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

Curved eye wall convection finally pushing through the to upper levels. if that wraps around .. an eye may try to clear out over night

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[toad strangler]

Watch Levi Cowan's video he just posted. He is bearish on strength should Isaias get as far west as the FL peninsula due to overbearing mid level westerly shear.

[Aric Dunn]

Can see the western periphery with a flat look where the trough is cutting off the UL High outflow. This Storm is now at the western edge of it’s UL High and about to get kicked by shear.

The G-IV sampled the area around the florida straights and near cuba.

winds from the 500 mb to 250 mb level ranged from 6 to 16 kts out of the WSW..

hardly enough to weaken it. if anything it will strengthen a little more then just maintain till landfall. Unless something changes.

I don't know Aric. Just wondering if that flow is an amply dryer air and acting as a bit of a mid to upper level cap. One of the reasons I think the UL outflow is so tepid on the west side may be directly related to a restricted upper level venting as the storm progresses in longitude. I'm thinking that perhaps the rising air in the column is immediately hitting some inhibiting cap as it tries to vent westward. To your point regarding the speed of those winds.... yeah, I agree one wouldn't think it by itself is that strong to simply shear apart a hurricane.

Its is definitely not perfect.. but it is far more conducive than the models have been pointing at for the last couple days.. hence the slow increase in strength as it gets closer to the coast.

[gatorcane]

Weather channel saying eastern Palm Beach County could see wind gusts to 93mph. That is like Irma winds for us.

[DestinHurricane]

Weather channel saying eastern Palm Beach County could see wind gusts to 93mph. That is like Irma winds for us.

Palm Beach County is very large. Probably meant up in Jupiter rather than Delray or boca

[shiny-pebble]

On radar it looks like the eyewall opened up

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[otowntiger]

http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1289366501925900288?s=20

Levi says the shear will likely keep it in check and very possibly weaken prior to its approach to Florida.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Weather channel saying eastern Palm Beach County could see wind gusts to 93mph. That is like Irma winds for us.

That's how I've been prepping here. Basically Irma like winds, but probably for a smaller time and only if we get the eyewall. That seems to be the "most reasonable worst case scenario."

[eastcoastFL]

Curved eye wall convection finally pushing through the to upper levels. if that wraps around .. an eye may try to clear out over night

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

You’ve been spot on with not just this storm but the past few storms. Do you agree with how far inland the latest euro goes? If so I may just put up the shutters in the morning

[eastcoastFL]

On radar it looks like the eyewall opened up

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I see what you’re talking about but I think that’s just the radar. That would be a quick jump since looks wide open to the east

[shiny-pebble]

On radar it looks like the eyewall opened up

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I see what you’re talking about but I think that’s just the radar. That would be a quick jump since looks wide open to the east

Oh okay thank you!!

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