ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1289372702248230913

[eastcoastFL]

On radar it looks like the eyewall opened up

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I see what you’re talking about but I think that’s just the radar. That would be a quick jump since looks wide open to the east

Oh okay thank you!!

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I could totally be wrong. Let’s see what others say.

[Camerooski]

Curved eye wall convection finally pushing through the to upper levels. if that wraps around .. an eye may try to clear out over night

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

I respectfully disagree, if you look at the Bahamian radar http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/ it appears that the closed eyewall is once again open.

[Aric Dunn]

Curved eye wall convection finally pushing through the to upper levels. if that wraps around .. an eye may try to clear out over night

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

I respectfully disagree, if you look at the Bahamian radar http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/ it appears that the closed eyewall is once again open.

what exactly do you disagree with ?

the radar is showing very intense eyewall convection.

[Camerooski]

Curved eye wall convection finally pushing through the to upper levels. if that wraps around .. an eye may try to clear out over night

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

I respectfully disagree, if you look at the Bahamian radar http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/ it appears that the closed eyewall is once again open.

what exactly do you disagree with ?

the radar is showing very intense eyewall convection.

The idea that an eye will clear out tonight.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1289368899813859328

[eastcoastFL]

Local weather for palm City is calling for sustained winds 65 gusting to 80mph between 2am and 8am Sunday morning. Is it me or does it seem like it’s almost always a weekend that these things come into Florida and the worst always seems to be overnight.

[eastcoastFL]

I respectfully disagree, if you look at the Bahamian radar http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/ it appears that the closed eyewall is once again open.

what exactly do you disagree with ?

the radar is showing very intense eyewall convection.

The idea that an eye will clear out tonight.

But what makes you say that?

[Aric Dunn]

I respectfully disagree, if you look at the Bahamian radar http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/ it appears that the closed eyewall is once again open.

what exactly do you disagree with ?

the radar is showing very intense eyewall convection.

The idea that an eye will clear out tonight.

Notice I said IF the convection continues to wrap around.. the potential is there.

[eastcoastFL]

Appears like more storms are building towards the west now on radar

[Hurrilurker]

Local weather for palm City is calling for sustained winds 65 gusting to 80mph between 2am and 8am Sunday morning. Is it me or does it seem like it’s almost always a weekend that these things come into Florida and the worst always seems to be overnight.

I can’t think of a logical reason for it, but it does seem like the majority of hurricanes landfall in the US at night.

[Palmcitycane]

Curved eye wall convection finally pushing through the to upper levels. if that wraps around .. an eye may try to clear out over night

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

You’ve been spot on with not just this storm but the past few storms. Do you agree with how far inland the latest euro goes? If so I may just put up the shutters in the morning

EastcoastFL - I'm in Palm City also. Undecided on the shutters as well. Drills are charging and I'll be ready in the morning if I need to. I've gotten quicker at putting them up after the last few years. Lol.

[gatorcane]

Local weather for palm City is calling for sustained winds 65 gusting to 80mph between 2am and 8am Sunday morning. Is it me or does it seem like it’s almost always a weekend that these things come into Florida and the worst always seems to be overnight.

Lol yeah seems that way. It also seems that in general on weekends the weather isn’t as good but starting Monday it is great. Why is that? That is for another discussion,

[chaser1]

The G-IV sampled the area around the florida straights and near cuba.

winds from the 500 mb to 250 mb level ranged from 6 to 16 kts out of the WSW..

hardly enough to weaken it. if anything it will strengthen a little more then just maintain till landfall. Unless something changes.

I don't know Aric. Just wondering if that flow is an amply dryer air and acting as a bit of a mid to upper level cap. One of the reasons I think the UL outflow is so tepid on the west side may be directly related to a restricted upper level venting as the storm progresses in longitude. I'm thinking that perhaps the rising air in the column is immediately hitting some inhibiting cap as it tries to vent westward. To your point regarding the speed of those winds.... yeah, I agree one wouldn't think it by itself is that strong to simply shear apart a hurricane.

Its is definitely not perfect.. but it is far more conducive than the models have been pointing at for the last couple days.. hence the slow increase in strength as it gets closer to the coast.

Well certainly conducive enough, looking at radar right now. I'll definitely give you that much. Just saw Levi's vid though and that kind of echoes my thoughts regarding potentially dryer air in the mid to upper levels and how it may effect the storm. We both know well enough these small buggers can certainly deepen or weaken quickly. Let the wobble-watching begin!

[eastcoastFL]

Local weather for palm City is calling for sustained winds 65 gusting to 80mph between 2am and 8am Sunday morning. Is it me or does it seem like it’s almost always a weekend that these things come into Florida and the worst always seems to be overnight.

I can’t think of a logical reason for it, but it does seem like the majority of hurricanes landfall in the US at night.

I think Wilma was the only one I’ve had during the day. Irma started during the day got worse at night here. Frances Jeanne and Matthew were all over night and all on the weekend if I remember correctly. Obviously the weekend part is coincidence.

[eastcoastFL]

Local weather for palm City is calling for sustained winds 65 gusting to 80mph between 2am and 8am Sunday morning. Is it me or does it seem like it’s almost always a weekend that these things come into Florida and the worst always seems to be overnight.

Lol yeah seems that way. It also seems that in general on weekends the weather isn’t as good but starting Monday it is great. Why is that? That is for another discussion,

Lol, just luck I guess, can’t come up with any science for it...

[BobHarlem]

986.3mb on the most recent recon pass, and they confirmed the eyewall is open on the south side.

[rigbyrigz]

what exactly do you disagree with ?

the radar is showing very intense eyewall convection.

The idea that an eye will clear out tonight.

Notice I said IF the convection continues to wrap around.. the potential is there.

I always thought "clear out" meant exit, or leave, like the Invading Martians in Independence Day... somehow I think you mean the opposite, or anyway, can you please tell the dumbos what eye wall "clearing out" means please. Thanks for all you do.

[eastcoastFL]

Curved eye wall convection finally pushing through the to upper levels. if that wraps around .. an eye may try to clear out over night

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

You’ve been spot on with not just this storm but the past few storms. Do you agree with how far inland the latest euro goes? If so I may just put up the shutters in the morning

EastcoastFL - I'm in Palm City also. Undecided on the shutters as well. Drills are charging and I'll be ready in the morning if I need to. I've gotten quicker at putting them up after the last few years. Lol.

Yah I’m ready to rock in the morning if need be. Hopefully we won’t need to. Stay safe!

[DestinHurricane]

Local weather for palm City is calling for sustained winds 65 gusting to 80mph between 2am and 8am Sunday morning. Is it me or does it seem like it’s almost always a weekend that these things come into Florida and the worst always seems to be overnight.

I can’t think of a logical reason for it, but it does seem like the majority of hurricanes landfall in the US at night.

I think Wilma was the only one I’ve had during the day. Irma started during the day got worse at night here. Frances Jeanne and Matthew were all over night and all on the weekend if I remember correctly. Obviously the weekend part is coincidence.

Charley was during day. Michael was noon on a Wednesday.