ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ClarCari]

https://i.ibb.co/tcLQTBy/recon-AF308-1319-A-SALLY-dropsonde3-20200916-0831.png

Splash.

That would support a Category 3.
I’ve been waiting for them to start dropping and showing what we’ve been trying to say about those FL winds making it down to the surface!

Yeah, but is a spot wind. Though if you add it to the data from the flight level winds then it would be a strong case.

We need MOAR
Spare themselves the time of having to upgrade post-season.

[wx98]

https://i.ibb.co/tcLQTBy/recon-AF308-1319-A-SALLY-dropsonde3-20200916-0831.png

Splash.

That would support a Category 3.
I’ve been waiting for them to start dropping and showing what we’ve been trying to say about those FL winds making it down to the surface!

They probably won’t go off the drop as we learned from Laura. And anyway I think drops from the last mission showed over 10 kts higher and didn’t get the upgrade.

[ClarCari]

https://i.ibb.co/tcLQTBy/recon-AF308-1319-A-SALLY-dropsonde3-20200916-0831.png

Splash.

That would support a Category 3.
I’ve been waiting for them to start dropping and showing what we’ve been trying to say about those FL winds making it down to the surface!

They probably won’t go off the drop as we learned from Laura. And anyway I think drops from the last mission showed over 10 kts higher and didn’t get the upgrade.

Nothing in Laura supported a Cat.5 the same way data supports a Cat.3 here.

[TallyTracker]

Whew! Sally cranked back up quickly! I pray everyone is safe out there! Cat 2 hurricanes are no joke especially when they are moving slow!

[Stormgodess]

Surge now starting to get in house here on Blackwater Bay.
Gonna be a long few hours upcoming

Joe

The house you are in??? Do you have a second floor? If you have to go into attic area, bring an chainsaw or axe with you in case you have to go through roof THIS IS A MUST! You do not want to get stuck up there with no way out. Do not wait till last minute if you end up needing rescue. 911 backs up so bad with so many calls coming in, during 2016 flood here in Louisiana it took up to 5 hrs for rescue and that was without a storm blowing I dont even know what to say.

[wx98]

That would support a Category 3.
I’ve been waiting for them to start dropping and showing what we’ve been trying to say about those FL winds making it down to the surface!

They probably won’t go off the drop as we learned from Laura. And anyway I think drops from the last mission showed over 10 kts higher and didn’t get the upgrade.

Nothing in Laura supported a Cat.5 the same way data supports a Cat.3 here.

Just in my opinion this isn’t a Cat 3. NHC May find it differently but currently they think Cat 2 as well.

[Blackwaterjoe22]

Surge now starting to get in house here on Blackwater Bay.
Gonna be a long few hours upcoming

Joe

The house you are in??? Do you have a second floor? If you have to go into attic area, bring an chainsaw or axe with you in case you have to go through roof THIS IS A MUST! You do not want to get stuck up there with no way out. Do not wait till last minute if you end up needing rescue. 911 backs up so bad with so many calls coming in, during 2016 flood here in Louisiana it took up to 5 hrs for rescue and that was without a storm blowing I dont even know what to say.

We are on pilings and the main level of house is about 10 feet above ground. We have been through this before.
Most likely will have 3-4 feet downstairs at the peak. This part of the bay just south of I-10 is very surge prone.We are safe here regarding surge

Joe

[wx98]

Recon is finding the center almost on the beach. They may try to squeeze in a couple more passes.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Recon image through 4:50am CDT:

[Chris90]

Each one of those wind measurements is an instantaneous wind as the dropsonde descends through the eyewall. The NHC uses a reduction factor using the average over the lowest 150m or lowest 500m. Looking at the averages for that dropsonde, it actually barely supports a Cat 2 based on NHC practices. But that is just one dropsonde, and since they are just one small tube descending through the atmosphere, it can be hard to use them to accurately measure intensity without corroborating with other data. Based off of the 110kts flight level, strength of the convection, and the impressive dropsonde from earlier, I think this may have pulled off a 100kt intensity.

[NotoSans]

https://i.ibb.co/tcLQTBy/recon-AF308-1319-A-SALLY-dropsonde3-20200916-0831.png

Splash.

That would support a Category 3.
I’ve been waiting for them to start dropping and showing what we’ve been trying to say about those FL winds making it down to the surface!

No it doesn’t. Surface splash is representative of gusts, not sustained winds.

To estimate sustained surface winds from dropsonde profile, we use the lowest 150m average wind and multiply it by a factor of 0.85. In this case, the dropsonde does not support Category 3.

That said, I think 95kt is the best estimate. SFMR winds may be unreliable near the coast.

[Stormgodess]

Surge now starting to get in house here on Blackwater Bay.
Gonna be a long few hours upcoming

Joe

The house you are in??? Do you have a second floor? If you have to go into attic area, bring an chainsaw or axe with you in case you have to go through roof THIS IS A MUST! You do not want to get stuck up there with no way out. Do not wait till last minute if you end up needing rescue. 911 backs up so bad with so many calls coming in, during 2016 flood here in Louisiana it took up to 5 hrs for rescue and that was without a storm blowing I dont even know what to say.

We are on pilings and the main level of house is about 10 feet above ground. We have been through this before.
Most likely will have 3-4 feet downstairs at the peak. This part of the bay just south of I-10 is very surge prone.We are safe here regarding surge

Joe

Ok, sorry for the panic. I had to be rescued out early for 2016 flood, we got the rain and water before anyone else, so I spent days organizing rescues for others. So many people stuck in attics and on roofs, thats a nightmare situation. So relieved yall are safe

[jhpigott]

Aric - what is the highest sustained and gust you've recorded?

[GCANE]

New Eye Drop


Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 9:14Z


A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 8:45:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30.16N 87.75W

D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 969mb (28.62 inHg)

F. Eye Character: Open in the northeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)

[wx98]

NHC confirms landfall at 5 am CDT.

[edu2703]

At approximately 445 AM CDT...0945 UTC...the center of Hurricane
Sally's eye made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama, as a Category 2
hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h) and a
minimum central pressure of 965 mb (28.50 inches).

SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 87.7W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

[Nimbus]

The house you are in??? Do you have a second floor? If you have to go into attic area, bring an chainsaw or axe with you in case you have to go through roof THIS IS A MUST! You do not want to get stuck up there with no way out. Do not wait till last minute if you end up needing rescue. 911 backs up so bad with so many calls coming in, during 2016 flood here in Louisiana it took up to 5 hrs for rescue and that was without a storm blowing I dont even know what to say.

We are on pilings and the main level of house is about 10 feet above ground. We have been through this before.
Most likely will have 3-4 feet downstairs at the peak. This part of the bay just south of I-10 is very surge prone.We are safe here regarding surge

Joe

Ok, sorry for the panic. I had to be rescued out early for 2016 flood, we got the rain and water before anyone else, so I spent days organizing rescues for others. So many people stuck in attics and on roofs, thats a nightmare situation. So relieved yall are safe

The eastern eyewall of Sally is pushing surge through Sherman inlet at the worst angle as we talked about a few pages back. Cat 2 winds though so hopefully just some drywall to fix.

[ClarCari]

https://i.ibb.co/tcLQTBy/recon-AF308-1319-A-SALLY-dropsonde3-20200916-0831.png

Splash.

That would support a Category 3.
I’ve been waiting for them to start dropping and showing what we’ve been trying to say about those FL winds making it down to the surface!

No it doesn’t. Surface splash is representative of gusts, not sustained winds.

To estimate sustained surface winds from dropsonde profile, we use the lowest 150m average wind and multiply it by a factor of 0.85. In this case, the dropsonde does not support Category 3.

That said, I think 95kt is the best estimate. SFMR winds may be unreliable near the coast.

Support a Category 3. Not the end all be all of course.
Anyways there’s more data to support a Cat.3 in this instance than for Laura as a Cat.5. That will be a different discussion once the season is done it looks like.

[Florabamaman]

It looks like I am going to catch the NE eyewall here shortly. It has been a hell of a night so far.

[wx98]

Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, and points just west are getting hammered with onshore flow. Anyone know what the surge is looking like? I know Cantore is talking about surge on TWC.