ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Pass in the NW quadrant was a little impressive.

It’s really building some decent storms now to the west

[crimi481]

The ridge may get stronger. What would prevent that? May shove storm to Miami or keys.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it’s safe to say that if doesn’t get its act together overnight it’s window of opportunity will run out. Although the NHC extends that window of opportunity through tomorrow morning per their latest discussion. After that conditions are not conducive for strengthening

Seems it’s getting its act together at the moment

There just seem to be lots of posts on here that have been suggesting otherwise, per it’s appearance. Perhaps looks are deceiving

[NDG]

Wow, I missed that the AF recon found 90 knot flight level winds while arguing in the model thread, lol. and that it has been taking a nice jog to the WNW.

[CronkPSU]

Wow, I missed that the AF recon found 90 knot flight level winds while arguing in the model thread, lol. and that it has been taking a nice jog to the WNW.

yeah, probably need some mods over there and bring those conversations over here....

[NDG]

Actually, that was almost a due west jog, WNW over all during the past few hours.

[Blown Away]

Current data supports an intensity of 75 kt from what I can see.

Am I seeing low level flow still to the NW and high clouds kinda stuck do to shear?

[toad strangler]

Open eye?

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1289383949538439168

[supercane4867]

It looks good, it doesn’t look good, it looks good, it doesn’t look good. Lol. I don’t know what to believe anymore. So many contradicting posts

For your typical CAT1 hurricane it certainly doesn't look bad. I can name plenty of CAT2s that looked worse than this.

[aspen]

Open eye?

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1289383949538439168?s=20

That’s probably why it’s only been intensifying modestly so far.

[caneseddy]

Actually, that was almost a due west jog, WNW over all during the past few hours.

https://i.imgur.com/0I7C1e8.png

Even that small west jog, even if overall it is moving WNW, is critical in the long term as it makes it possible for Isaias to pass over the south part of Andros rather than over the island which brings it closer to coast before the turn.

You know it's getting real when we are wobble watching LOL

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Aric Dunn]

People... Eyewalls open a close all the time during this phase of a hurricane..

[NDG]

Radar is back up again, Eyewall opened up again, might be the reason it has been taking a more WNW heading the last few hours.

[jlauderdal]

Wow, I missed that the AF recon found 90 knot flight level winds while arguing in the model thread, lol. and that it has been taking a nice jog to the WNW.

yeah, probably need some mods over there and bring those conversations over here....

20 posts about the NAM...there were 2 planes in there, we have radar and sat yet its a tussle over the NAM and 5 miles to the east, lol

[toad strangler]

People... Eyewalls open a close all the time during this phase of a hurricane..

Yeah but this is happening due to all of that mid level westerly shear AND dry air.

[jlauderdal]

Actually, that was almost a due west jog, WNW over all during the past few hours.

https://i.imgur.com/0I7C1e8.png

Even that small west jog, even if overall it is moving WNW, is critical in the long term as it makes it possible for Isaias to pass over the south part of Andros rather than over the island which brings it closer to coast before the turn.

You know it's getting real when we are wobble watching LOL

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I would rather argue over wobbles than the NAM

[artist]

[toad strangler]

Wow, I missed that the AF recon found 90 knot flight level winds while arguing in the model thread, lol. and that it has been taking a nice jog to the WNW.

yeah, probably need some mods over there and bring those conversations over here....

20 posts about the NAM...there were 2 planes in there, we have radar and sat yet its a tussle over the NAM and 5 miles to the east, lol

It's a model isn't it? It's not a top six tropical go to but IT IS a near term tool.

[rigbyrigz]

Is the Easter Blob traveling "with it"? a more Westerly Landfall followed by the Easter Blob aftershock would be an intense experience. Are the recons sampling the wind strength of the Blob? The Convection looks fierce at times there.

[Aric Dunn]

People... Eyewalls open a close all the time during this phase of a hurricane..

Yeah but this is happening due to all of that mid level westerly shear AND dry air.

and yet its still deepening.. in an hours or two the eyewall will be closed again.