ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Storm surge video of Lili -- a CAT1 at landfall

[youtube]https://youtu.be/exmk58NHsQ8[/youtube]

[Blinhart]

Based on past experience, Western Cuba's impact on developing tropical systems is slim to nonexistent.

Hurricane Lili was a CAT2 while crossing Cuba and it immediately started to rapidly intensify thereafter.

https://i.imgur.com/mHpK5sO.gif

However, it can cause permeant structure damage to mature storms(Gustav 08) but that obviously doesn't apply to Laura.

Coincidentally, Laura replaced Lili after 2002.

That is the last storm to cause damage to my house, don't even want to think about that.

[AnnularCane]

Based on past experience, Western Cuba's impact on developing tropical systems is slim to nonexistent.

Hurricane Lili was a CAT2 while crossing Cuba and it immediately started to rapidly intensify thereafter.

https://i.imgur.com/mHpK5sO.gif

However, it can cause permeant structure damage to mature storms(Gustav 08) but that obviously doesn't apply to Laura.

Coincidentally, Laura replaced Lili after 2002.

Interesting how Laura will likely be taking a somewhat similar track as Lili did.

[ConvergenceZone]

How many hours do you think the Center will spend over Cuba?

[Aric Dunn]

[Comradez]

I'm surprised the hurricane hunters flew directly over Cuban airspace on the way in. Do they have some sort of agreement with the Cuban government? Because, if I recall correctly, they used to not be able to do that.

Also, whether or not the hurricane hunters missed the center, those pressure readings hint at multiple minima, which means possibly a tug-of-war over where the LLC will ultimately form. The minima farther to the NW would seem to be the stronger one at the moment considering the lower pressures there.

[Blinhart]

https://i.ibb.co/xq9mzjZ/Capture.png

So she is trying to miss the mountains.

[cfisher]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1298031029412859906

[supercane4867]

How many hours do you think the Center will spend over Cuba?

It's racing WNW at 20mph.

[eastcoastFL]

Getting into to some bigger winds now

[tolakram]

I'm surprised the hurricane hunters flew directly over Cuban airspace on the way in. Do they have some sort of agreement with the Cuban government? Because, if I recall correctly, they used to not be able to do that.

Also, whether or not the hurricane hunters missed the center, those pressure readings hint at multiple minima, which means possibly a tug-of-war over where the LLC will ultimately form. The minima farther to the NW would seem to be the stronger one at the moment considering the lower pressures there.

They have for a number of years now.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like we have landfall again..

looks be heading around 295 degrees now.

[Nederlander]

How many hours do you think the Center will spend over Cuba?

That looks about 50 miles? So maybe 2-3 hours?

[eastcoastFL]

I'm surprised the hurricane hunters flew directly over Cuban airspace on the way in. Do they have some sort of agreement with the Cuban government? Because, if I recall correctly, they used to not be able to do that.

Also, whether or not the hurricane hunters missed the center, those pressure readings hint at multiple minima, which means possibly a tug-of-war over where the LLC will ultimately form. The minima farther to the NW would seem to be the stronger one at the moment considering the lower pressures there.

They have a solid relationship when it comes to hurricanes. They are permitted to enter Cuban airspace.

[cfisher]

Eye starting to open up on IR

[cfisher]

Looks like we have landfall again..

looks be heading around 295 degrees now.

https://i.ibb.co/3vg6XC6/5.gif

That's a meso...

[supercane4867]

Actually, land interaction with western Cuba may help to trigger heavy convection overnight.

[NDG]

LLC is north of forecast track.

[eastcoastFL]

Eye starting to open up on IR

I haven’t been able to see an eye on IR. Can you tell me where I should look?

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like we have landfall again..

looks be heading around 295 degrees now.

https://i.ibb.co/3vg6XC6/5.gif

That's a meso...

no that is where recon just flew by.