ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

NHC finally moved their 120hr point from 27.5N/84W to near landfall north of Tampa. HIGH degree of uncertainty in Eta's intensity then. I think they are erring on the high side.

So Wxman57, the intensity for ETA to possibly be a little higher still exists?...please bear with me, I am a little confused...

[psyclone]

NHC finally moved their 120hr point from 27.5N/84W to near landfall north of Tampa. HIGH degree of uncertainty in Eta's intensity then. I think they are erring on the high side.

When we reel in a fish...it's a guppy. I expect Eta to degrade as it heads northeastward. It is worth noting though...that our TS wind probs over west central florida have started increasing after being stuck in neutral for multiple advisories. A fall gale is becoming more likely

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1325535024985370627

[Nimbus]

HRRR is persistent that SE coastal FL will see wind gusts in the 60-80 mph range tonight.

The HRRR track not looking to bad, upper Keys & peninsula tip looks good given Eta been R of track for days.

HRRR has the CDO back at 21 UTC and it gets updated every 15 minutes so I can wait.
It will either be right or drunker than a barrel full of monkeys.

[gatorcane]

Wow getting real windy here near beach in Boca. Guests near 50mph. Power flickered on and off

[jlauderdal]

Hello everyone...CW0262 here in Port st. Lucie FL Winds 25 with gusts to 41.4 mph rain today 0.47 in.

2.66 today
1.78 yesterday

Radar looks juicy to the SE..im looking for over 5 today

[NDG]

Wow getting real windy here near beach in Boca. Guests near 50mph. Power flickered on and off

Next set of Nasty squalls in the northern quadrant about to start coming onshore over SE FL.

[jlauderdal]

Wow getting real windy here near beach in Boca. Guests near 50mph. Power flickered on and off

Any sun yet?

[AdamFirst]

St Lucie County has closed schools tomorrow due to expected conditions from Eta.

[Bluehawk]

Wow getting real windy here near beach in Boca. Guests near 50mph. Power flickered on and off

So far no sign of power issues here in West Boca, thank goodness! But the winds were getting strong enough to make the house reverberate... (I don't know how to explain. Reverberate it not quite the best word for it. But, strong enough to "feel" them even if inside).

[toad strangler]

St Lucie County has closed schools tomorrow due to expected conditions from Eta.

So has Martin Cty

[Evil Jeremy]

I think part of the issues with the models trying to get grasp on this kind of a turn is that they only model in 6 hour increments, refreshing every 6 hours. It's impossible for them to give a good idea of a gradual turn over a short time frame.

EDIT: That's independent of this storm consistently being more right of forecast, and how that affects the turn.

[fox13weather]

NHC finally moved their 120hr point from 27.5N/84W to near landfall north of Tampa. HIGH degree of uncertainty in Eta's intensity then. I think they are erring on the high side.

Historically not all that unusual to have a landfall between Tampa and the Big Bend area for a November storm. The key will be how long it has to either intensify or hopefully get shredded some more.

There have been FIVE hurricanes in the Gulf since 1851. One has made landfall on the west coast of Florida and that occurred down by Ft Myers. .

[Evil Jeremy]

Wow getting real windy here near beach in Boca. Guests near 50mph. Power flickered on and off

Next set of Nasty squalls in the northern quadrant about to start coming onshore over SE FL.

https://i.imgur.com/9QaCr6v.gif

I believe that's the same burst that you caught 2 1/2 hours ago back on page 175 (around/over Andros at the time). I've been watching it develop on the SFWMD radar tool, which is still the best radar for times like this (https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions). Should be the first sustained wallop for SE FL.

[Sailingtime]

Looks as if a lot of dry air wrapping around the Southern semi-circle of the storm as it approaches the Keys. Not a good sign for strengthening.

[robbielyn]

NHC finally moved their 120hr point from 27.5N/84W to near landfall north of Tampa. HIGH degree of uncertainty in Eta's intensity then. I think they are erring on the high side.

Historically not all that unusual to have a landfall between Tampa and the Big Bend area for a November storm. The key will be how long it has to either intensify or hopefully get shredded some more.

There have been FIVE hurricanes in the Gulf since 1851. One has made landfall on the west coast of Florida and that occurred down by Ft Myers. .

I think that statistic will remain. I don’t think it will be a hurricane dry air could kill it before it hits shore i hope anyways.

[Sanibel]

It appears a pseudo annular effect is happening...

[johngaltfla]

NHC finally moved their 120hr point from 27.5N/84W to near landfall north of Tampa. HIGH degree of uncertainty in Eta's intensity then. I think they are erring on the high side.

Historically not all that unusual to have a landfall between Tampa and the Big Bend area for a November storm. The key will be how long it has to either intensify or hopefully get shredded some more.

There have been FIVE hurricanes in the Gulf since 1851. One has made landfall on the west coast of Florida and that occurred down by Ft Myers. .

That's why I said storm.

Tropical storms and depressions are another issue. Keith (1988), Gordon (1994), Mitch (1998) for the West Coast and Kate (1985) which whacked the panhandle come to mind. If we get a gulf storm it has to go somewhere and it depends on if/when it interacts with a cold front. YMMV.

[xironman]

Looks as if a lot of dry air wrapping around the Southern semi-circle of the storm as it approaches the Keys. Not a good sign for strengthening.

Meh, I have seen worse.

[johngaltfla]

Historically not all that unusual to have a landfall between Tampa and the Big Bend area for a November storm. The key will be how long it has to either intensify or hopefully get shredded some more.

There have been FIVE hurricanes in the Gulf since 1851. One has made landfall on the west coast of Florida and that occurred down by Ft Myers. .

I think that statistic will remain. I don’t think it will be a hurricane dry air could kill it before it hits shore i hope anyways.

That's what I'm hoping for. I'm sick of this tropical season and wonder now what winter surprises are in store for us.