ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[got ants?]

There has to be some kind of weird undercutting/decoupling type thing going on. It's looking like it's almost stopping, almost similar to what Frances did. Storms love to slow down in this area, I wonder why?

It's just hit the hot waters of the south Bahamas. It's like the first buffet the opened after covid closures. Would you stop and "feed" too?

[CrazyC83]

031200 2316N 07618W 8441 01440 9958 +183 +183 125082 084 064 007 00

Wouldn't this make Isaias a cat 2?

No. The 84 kt winds at flight level translate to about 68 kt at the surface.

[blp]

I think this is the center.

[ConvergenceZone]

The Board got quiet all of the sudden. Everyone must have went to bed to be able to get up early and track this.....

[Bocadude85]

The Board got quiet all of the sudden. Everyone must have went to bed to be able to get up early and track this.....

Only 6:55pm here in Honolulu, I’ll be up for the Euro

[AutoPenalti]

The Board got quiet all of the sudden. Everyone must have went to bed to be able to get up early and track this.....

and it’s Saturday

[Hurricane Mike]

Isaias is getting guillotined by upper level shear. The mid-levels seem fine.

[cheezyWXguy]

Man this is one fickle storm. Cdo is warming and shrinking pretty quickly. Gonna need another big burst to maintain its current intensity. I’m guessing the dry air penetrating its core right now is due to its southern inflow channel being set up along the length of Cuba. I do wonder if we may see a quick uptick in intensity when that inflow channel starts pulling moisture from the Florida straits

[Blown Away]

Isaias is getting guillotined by upper level shear. The mid-levels seem fine.

Yeah you can see the mid/lower level clouds still moving WNW-NW probable still @12 mph..

[Bocadude85]

Isaias is getting guillotined by upper level shear. The mid-levels seem fine.

Yeah you can see the mid/lower level clouds still moving WNW-NW probable still @12 mph..

Looks to be making a beeline for central Andros Island.

[ConvergenceZone]

Man this is one fickle storm. Cdo is warming and shrinking pretty quickly. Gonna need another big burst to maintain its current intensity. I’m guessing the dry air penetrating its core right now is due to its southern inflow channel being set up along the length of Cuba. I do wonder if we may see a quick uptick in intensity when that inflow channel starts pulling moisture from the Florida straits

I agree. Although, I won't be surprised if we wake up in the morning and find a tropical storm. In my opinion , after looking at the maps, the dry air is just going to be too much for this to handle....

[chaser1]

The "blob" is a stationary convective band that has formed on the edge of the primary envelope as a result of the flow from the larger wave packet.

Yet, there must be some driving force preventing this stationary convective band, from itself feeding into the COC circulation. Furthermore, what remains unexplained is how low to mid level convergence is somehow able to bypass the storm core circulation by a greater pull of what is essentially a trough (stationary convective band).

[CrazyC83]

From the maps I see, there is about 20-30 kt of upper-level shear in the vicinity of Isaias, while mid-level shear is about 10-15 kt (mostly to the east). If it stays offshore, shear drops off quite a bit after passing the latitude of South Florida.

[chaser1]

Man this is one fickle storm. Cdo is warming and shrinking pretty quickly. Gonna need another big burst to maintain its current intensity. I’m guessing the dry air penetrating its core right now is due to its southern inflow channel being set up along the length of Cuba. I do wonder if we may see a quick uptick in intensity when that inflow channel starts pulling moisture from the Florida straits

I agree. Although, I won't be surprised if we wake up in the morning and find a tropical storm. In my opinion , after looking at the maps, the dry air is just going to be too much for this to handle....

This really is beginning to feel like I'm tracking some oceanic two-mile wide F-0 tube that by itself is no match for the far larger weather systems at play. It's fascinating how quickly the pressure can drop in a small tight core system. Yet, this could be a shallow shell of it's former self as it dines at Uncle SALS Salty tavern near the Jupiter Fl. coastline.

[Jr0d]

Definately looks like the general motion took a jog north tonite. Not sure if this is a wobble are part of the north turn. It might have peaked for now, clearly feeling some shear now.

[Blown Away]

Isaias’s CDO back on the move again to the NW.

[Steejo91]

 https://twitter.com/Tornado_Steejo/status/1289439070410559488




That is alot of dry air on the west side and that's where the shear is pushing from.

[ConvergenceZone]

From the maps I see, there is about 20-30 kt of upper-level shear in the vicinity of Isaias, while mid-level shear is about 10-15 kt (mostly to the east). If it stays offshore, shear drops off quite a bit after passing the latitude of South Florida.

The mets were saying something similiar to what you mentioned on TV tonight. How if it stayed all the way off short, it had a chance to get stronger, and how even if it goes onshore just a little, it will probably fall apart fairly rapidly, and not much will remain of it, but a big rainstorm as it moves up the east coast.

[ConvergenceZone]

edit: removed my post on wind speed, per error in wunderground

[Hurricane Mike]

At 2am, winds up now to 85 mph. What an odd system.