ATL: LAURA - Models

[galaxy401]

Uhhh Euro at 48h has Laura bombing out and heading straight to Galveston.

[SoupBone]

There's no way you can keep ignoring it now. I'm sorry. Western bias or not.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro... hour 48 down to 948mb:

[gqhebert]

Euro coming in South of Galveston as a major

[AxaltaRacing24]

There's no way you can keep ignoring it now. I'm sorry. Western bias or not.

people in houston should've been preparing for a potential direct hit since saturday. this was never fully out of the cards.

[Kingarabian]

TropicalTidbits is not going to show the exact landfall + strength since it comes in 24 hour increments. Waiting for the higher resolution to catch up and I'll post it.

[catskillfire51]

correction, on the paid site if you follow it from 36hr to 48hr she's actually making her turn. Still might be bolivar peninsula tonight but if these west trends continue... alarms need to be sounded.

[Highteeld]

Houston needs to evacuate or strongly consider it. Current trends show a jog SOUTHWEST in the storm motion. Long term effects are this sends the model track mean very close Houston. I really think a Houston landfall is more likely than not.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Really feel bad for whoever is on shift at the NHC right now. This is a stressful situation unfolding.

[USTropics]

Landfall at 941mb on the ECMWF 00z run:

[Cerlin]

We’ve been seeing the models flip flop between the western and eastern solutions but this is the first time I’ve seen them all agree on that western track. Most of them are pretty intense too. I’d get the hell out of Galveston and Houston if I lived there.

[SoupBone]

Does it look like it's shooting straight north after making landfall?

[catskillfire51]

how long till the ensembles will come out for the Euro?

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro is slightly weaker than 18z but it doesnt matter. Here's what the winds could look like. Keep in mind these are 850mb winds so they need to be reduced a bit to get an estimate of the surface winds.

[USTropics]

Does it look like it's shooting straight north after making landfall?

Yes definitely a mostly northern heading, here is the very next frame:

[catskillfire51]

Does it look like it's shooting straight north after making landfall?

So far through 66hrs, Yes.

[Kingarabian]

how long till the ensembles will come out for the Euro?

Bout an hour 45.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298140610923290624

[WxEp]

00z SHIPS... those are some significant RI probabilities - and SHIPS is not as aggressive as some other models on this system.

.
* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LAURA AL132020 08/25/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 67 73 81 86 83 77 69 60 56 55 61 51 39 30
V (KT) LAND 55 62 65 71 76 85 89 54 36 30 28 27 27 36 27 N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 68 73 82 87 55 35 29 28 27 27 35 36 33 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

[Kingarabian]

00z SHIPS... those are some significant RI probabilities - and SHIPS is not as aggressive as some other models on this system.

.
* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LAURA AL132020 08/25/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 67 73 81 86 83 77 69 60 56 55 61 51 39 30
V (KT) LAND 55 62 65 71 76 85 89 54 36 30 28 27 27 36 27 N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 68 73 82 87 55 35 29 28 27 27 35 36 33 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

No wonder the NHC's intensity is so conservative. The SHIPS barely has a Cat.2. Odd considering how bullish it is on open MDR systems.