ATL: LAURA - Models

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Keldeo1997
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3681 Postby Keldeo1997 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:50 am

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GFS West again and stronger. Has landfall around Port Arthur
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3682 Postby kevin » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:30 am

06z HMON & HWRF have started.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3683 Postby kevin » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:37 am

HMON down to 980 mbar at 27 hours, 7 mbar stronger than the previous run at this point.

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3684 Postby plasticup » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:42 am

kevin wrote:HMON down to 980 mbar at 27 hours, 7 mbar stronger than the previous run at this point.

https://i.imgur.com/GQ31Dad.png


And trending a hair to the west as well. This looks like it will be a Houston Major solution.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3685 Postby dantonlsu » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:47 am

plasticup wrote:
kevin wrote:HMON down to 980 mbar at 27 hours, 7 mbar stronger than the previous run at this point.

https://i.imgur.com/GQ31Dad.png


And trending a hair to the west as well. This looks like it will be a Houston Major solution.


Looking like it will hook at the end.. Near Winnie my guess..
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3686 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:52 am

HWRF hour 27:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3687 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:55 am

06z HMON hours 39-48:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3688 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:56 am

06x HMON landfall east of Galveston:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3689 Postby kevin » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:56 am

06z HMON landfall at 54 hours, 952 mbar. 5 mbar stronger than the last run and a similar speed, but significantly further West than the previous run.

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Last edited by kevin on Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3690 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:56 am

06z HWRF winds up to CAT4 @36hr
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3691 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:57 am

00z HMON hour 36:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3692 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:57 am

Also it seems that both HMON and HWRF are overdoing the size of the eye.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3693 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:59 am

HMON trend at landfall:
Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3694 Postby kevin » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:59 am

supercane4867 wrote:Also it seems that both HMON and HWRF are overdoing the size of the eye.


A smaller eye could result in faster intensification, right?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3695 Postby kevin » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:03 am

HWRF 945 mbar at 42 hours and low-end cat 4 winds.

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3696 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:04 am

kevin wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Also it seems that both HMON and HWRF are overdoing the size of the eye.


A smaller eye could result in faster intensification, right?

A smaller eye would lead to an ERC faster whereas a larger eye is generally more stable.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3697 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:05 am

Even on the EPS I don’t think there’s enough shortwave ridging to push Laura into Galveston Bay. Landfall looks to occur between Gilchrist and Sabine Pass.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3698 Postby kevin » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:08 am

HWRF landfall at 51 hours, 942 mbar. Winds at 48 hours (just before landfall) are 117 kts / 135 mph / 217 kmh.

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Last edited by kevin on Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:10 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3699 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:08 am

Shell Mound wrote:Even on the EPS I don’t think there’s enough shortwave ridging to push Laura into Galveston Bay. Landfall looks to occur between Gilchrist and Sabine Pass.

Still 36 hours left of modeling before we'll know for sure IMO. Even if the models focus on a track just east of Galveston, any wobble to the left will give them the worst of it.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3700 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:09 am

HWRF has a huge eye holding steady from its formation all the way to landfall. Unlikely that it will materialize IMO

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