ATL: LAURA - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS appears to be initializing Laura a few mb too strong, FWIW.

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS is interesting. Landfall back near the tx/la border. Ridge at 500mb is initialized stronger than the previous run, but immediately goes back to the same strength for the rest of it. Given that the ridge is depicted as the same strength through the run, I’m a little surprised at the slight northward shift, though this could be considered negligible variation. Wonder what it’s ensembles will do

[wxman22]

GFS is interesting. Landfall back near the tx/la border. Ridge at 500mb is initialized stronger than the previous run, but immediately goes back to the same strength for the rest of it. Given that the ridge is depicted as the same strength through the run, I’m a little surprised at the slight northward shift, though this could be considered negligible variation. Wonder what it’s ensembles will do

Yeah the difference is within margin of error its pretty much identical to the 6z.

[Steve]

3km NAM depiction from 12z

[Steve]

GFS IR Depiction at Landfall

[Haris]

NMMB WRF has a HOU landfall

[kevin]

12z GFS landfall, 957 at 48 hours near the TX/LS border.

[hershels]

NMMB WRF has a HOU landfall

where would I find this?

[TXWeatherMan]

NMMB WRF has a HOU landfall

How good is the WRF with tropics?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

NMMB WRF has a HOU landfall

where would I find this?

Mesoscale model

[Haris]

NMMB WRF has a HOU landfall

where would I find this?

Mesoscale model

[Highteeld]

Here's the 12z CAM suite (these are NOT hurricane models)

[Stormcenter]

TX/LA border still looks like a good bet maybe even bit further east. IMO

[ThunderSleetDreams]

TX/LA border still looks like a good bet maybe even bit further east. IMO

TX/LA will be furthest east IMO. Port O Connor looks most likely.

[WxEp]

12z UKMET. Further west and slightly weaker compared to 00z. Also note the significant re-intensification after Laura re-emerges into the Atlantic near the end of the run.

HURRICANE LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.3N 85.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2020 0 23.3N 85.9W 993 52
0000UTC 26.08.2020 12 24.6N 89.1W 986 50
1200UTC 26.08.2020 24 26.0N 91.9W 978 60
0000UTC 27.08.2020 36 27.8N 94.0W 969 69
1200UTC 27.08.2020 48 30.3N 94.6W 961 46
0000UTC 28.08.2020 60 33.4N 94.2W 977 36
1200UTC 28.08.2020 72 35.8N 92.8W 986 35
0000UTC 29.08.2020 84 37.4N 90.0W 985 38
1200UTC 29.08.2020 96 37.7N 84.4W 982 35
0000UTC 30.08.2020 108 37.2N 76.9W 988 36
1200UTC 30.08.2020 120 37.7N 70.1W 981 50
0000UTC 31.08.2020 132 39.7N 63.3W 967 63
1200UTC 31.08.2020 144 43.6N 54.1W 944 82

[galvestontx]

TX/LA border still looks like a good bet maybe even bit further east. IMO

TX/LA will be furthest east IMO. Port O Connor looks most likely.

Port O Connnor isnt even in the Hurricane cone. That would be terrible though.

[jaguars_22]

No way this thing hits port o Connor that’s my doorstep lol. We’re too far west

[Steve]

TX/LA border still looks like a good bet maybe even bit further east. IMO

You've been sort of on that for about 3 days. I could see the border. I also see Maue's point by continuously posting EC ensembles. Everyone knows those guys nut-hug the EC pretty frequently. And it certainly could be the case that they end up being right. But it's a no-lose situation. Houston is the 4th largest city (by population) in the country and the 6th largest msa. By promoting what they do, they get likes, viewers, re-shares and re-tweets. People are going to notice that. if they end up right, they get to kind of throw their bravado out about how they love the NHC and all, but look at the value you get from Weatherbell. If it's off, they don't really have to say anything.

[hershels]

TX/LA border still looks like a good bet maybe even bit further east. IMO

TX/LA will be furthest east IMO. Port O Connor looks most likely.

Either option is good for the Houston metro area. May I please get an either/or and nothing in between?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

TX/LA border still looks like a good bet maybe even bit further east. IMO

TX/LA will be furthest east IMO. Port O Connor looks most likely.

Port O Connnor isnt even in the Hurricane cone. That would be terrible though.

I misspoke. I meant High Island. I was mixing texts and said POC could see TS winds if a far west solution materialized