ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ian2401]

A more west jog / track would impinge winds more at a right angle against the west shore of Andros and up LL convergence which in turn allows for a burst of convection to occur then.

also has massive impacts for future track, specifically in regards to FL. model consensus has the storm making landfall on the Northern tip of Andros...and the storm has now made a landfall in the center of the island. potentially big changes unless it wobbles back the other way (as they often do)

[Kazmit]

What is "Miss Piggy" lol?

It's the name of one of their recon planes.

[StormingB81]

What is "Miss Piggy" lol?

The Hurricane Hunters plane

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like I was right from my post late yesterday. Shear is taking its toll near the mid level and dry air is getting involved. Expecting a gradual weakening trend to just TS strength as the day unfolds.

[eastcoastFL]

@tropicaltidbits

#Isaias beginning to struggle more with shear and dry air this morning, with the core becoming more ragged. Data from recon planes indicates slight weakening occurring.

The track is slightly left of yesterday's expectation, over Andros Island, increasing odds of #Florida impacts.


https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/sta ... 25792?s=21

It’s south and west of where all the models had him at this point also.

[toad strangler]

The first bank of clouds just took away my gorgeous dry and cloudless sky away with a gusty downdraft and shower is Saint Lucie West

[AutoPenalti]

TWC calling this a Covidcane? Jesus...

The real "Covidcanes" are coming later this season.

Their in-office model goes against every other model run that NHC has at their disposal

[Ian2401]

looks like it has resumed its NW trajectory

[GCANE]

If that dry slot gets taken out, an anticyclone could quickly snap in place.
Would suddenly snap the vort column vertically thru the entire troposphere.

[CourierPR]

looks like it has resumed its NW trajectory

It doesn't appear that way to my untrained eyes.

[Kat5]

looks like it has resumed its NW trajectory

Indeed it has.

[boca]

It still looks like it’s moving WNW to me and I think it might move a little closer to SE Florida than forecast just my feeling.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Still looks more wnw to me. The 'eye' is enlarging on radar giving the illusion of a more Northerly jog.

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[AutoPenalti]

looks like it has resumed its NW trajectory

Indeed it has.

Doesn’t look like it. 288° heading I’d say.

[cp79]

It looks awful on visible. If I didn’t know any better I’d say it was on life support right now and shear is only Supposed to get worse. Gonna be in survival mode the next 24 hours here.

[tropicwatch]

Wobble watchers of America Unite but seriously with pressures falling I don't agree with the struggling posts. Looks like it is maintaining the status quo for now. With each westward jog, a landfall somewhere on the Florida east coast is becoming more likely.

[Blown Away]

looks like it has resumed its NW trajectory

Indeed it has.

Doesn’t look like it. 288° heading I’d say.

Yes, @290 still, clearly see the center almost over the middle of Andros.

[TallyTracker]

It looks like a combo of Cuba hampering the in-feed of moisture from the Caribbean and southwesterly wind shear punching dry air into the core are at least keeping Isaias in a steady state this morning. I doubt much additional strengthening is likely as long as this set-up persists.

[Steejo91]

Wobble watchers of America Unite but seriously with pressures falling I don't agree with the struggling posts. Looks like it is maintaining the status quo for now. With each westward jog, a landfall somewhere on the Florida east coast is becoming more likely.

Pressures have been on the steady rise this morning. From 978 to 986mb with latest pass seems like weakening to me. Also, water vapor loop tells the entire story itself.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Pretty easy to see the WNW motion on this loop due to small CDO.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

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