ATL: MARCO - Models

[Nederlander]

How reliable are the HMON and HWRF? Wondering...

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe it has a better handle on intensity than track. But better on both in the 72 hr range.

[aspen]

12z HMON

https://i.imgur.com/g1ykAG7.png

How well the HWRF/HMON runs verify for Laura and Marco depends on which one takes advantage of the Gulf first. In this run, Marco is about to make landfall in only 84 hours; Laura should still be between Florida and Cuba at that time, and once Laura does reach the Gulf, Marco would be a rapidly weakening inland system (assuming that timing and track verifies). That means outflow-induced shear on Laura won’t be too bad. Due to TD14’s center shift, this track seems more likely.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS tracks + mean for TD14:

[Hammy]

Wow. That’s amazing. I knew it nailed Dorian but I didn’t know it had the structure down like that. Science still amazes me. This model may be under appreciated

If my memory serves me well I believe it smelled out Michael's RI well before the NHC projected it.

NAM as well, as much as people joke about it here--it was the first one to show rapid intensification with Harvey, Michael, and Hanna (can't say for Dorian/Irma as they were outside of the model's range) as well as picking up several smaller tropical storms that no other model figured out. Wind profile/satellite are best to pay attention to as it does tend to overplay the pressure drop.

I brought this up in Laura's thread but worth noting here as well: 12z NAM has a strengthening tropical storm near hurricane intensity at 60h.

[boulderrr]

Looks like the ECMWF ensemble mean is very similar to the operational GFS. I was surprised with the 12Z GFS track toward south Texas, but now quite a few ECMWF ensembles suggesting the same thing.

[SoupBone]

12z EPS tracks + mean for TD14:
https://i.imgur.com/yEpZ8wM.png

Look at all of the runs between Corpus and Mexico. Wow

[captainbarbossa19]

These model shifts are driving me crazy. First, 14 was suppose to impact my area, now it looks like Laura could be a threat. Who knows what will be next. We need a consensus on both storms really soon.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS tracks + mean for TD14:
https://i.imgur.com/yEpZ8wM.png

Look at all of the runs between Corpus and Mexico. Wow

Yeah very tough forecast TBH. There's no weaker system going west, stronger system going north groups and vice versa. Hopefully it'll become clear in the next 24 hours.

[Nederlander]

Beginning to wonder if the models are picking up a stronger ridge building in as the trof lifts out. That would have big implications with 14 missing the weakness and Laura potentially having much more time over water if she is able to survive Hisp/Cuba.

But then again, won’t be surprised if this is one of our 5 days windshield wiper movements only for the models to trend back in the next runs. 0z will have good recon data to ingest

[jasons2k]

This is why the NHC tends to be conservative and steady...and they are usually very close.

[Frank P]

14 has been going practically due north all day, not sure If any of these model runs showed that scenario... definitely on the east side of that euro run..

[CrazyC83]

What we really need are special balloon launches to sample the upper air.

[Blinhart]

I heard on the radio today that they are talking about Fujiwhara (sp?), is there a possibility of this happening?

[Kingarabian]

My geography is limited but East-LA looks like the landfall for TD14 per the 18z ICON:

[SoupBone]

My geography is limited but East-LA looks like the landfall for TD14 per the 18z ICON:
https://i.imgur.com/bFrC4k8.png

Yeah, Terrebonne/Lafourche/Plaqumines Parish area, depending on exactly where at the tip of the boot it hits.

[Nederlander]

My geography is limited but East-LA looks like the landfall for TD14 per the 18z ICON:
https://i.imgur.com/bFrC4k8.png

Yeah, Terrebonne/Lafourche/Plaqumines Parish area, depending on exactly where at the tip of the boot it hits.

ICON has been all over the place. Scenario is plausible, but it’s showing much weaker ridging, while the GFS and Euro are going the other way.

[Nederlander]

GFS further north through 48hr. - barely scrapes the tip of the Yucatán, but very weak

[Craters]

Dang. I'm getting serious whiplash from these model swings.

If nothing else, though, it's a good illustration of what "The Cone" really represents: one third of the historically derived error isn't shown, but it's still there. A late friend of mine called statistics "Ignorance with rules." Pretty succinct.

On a side note, I'm wishing that it would be possible to adapt instantly to GCANE's sleep/wake cycle, which apparently is based on Dmax. It's hard to make a decision on whether to pack up and boogie when things are changing so fast and drastically. Given recent history, I can't shake the possibility of RI that's in the back of my mind...

[Nederlander]

Dang. I'm getting serious whiplash from these model swings.

If nothing else, though, it's a good illustration of what "The Cone" really represents: one third of the historically derived error isn't shown, but it's still there. A late friend of mine called statistics "Ignorance with rules." Pretty succinct.

On a side note, I'm wishing that it would be possible to adapt instantly to GCANE's sleep/wake cycle, which apparently is based on Dmax. It's hard to make a decision on whether to pack up and boogie when things are changing so fast and drastically. Given recent history, I can't shake the possibility of RI that's in the back of my mind...

I’d say just be ready tomorrow night, get good sleep, and then see what the situation is Sunday morning. We should have a much higher degree of confidence by then on track and whether RI is possible.

[Nederlander]

18z GFS collapses steering for 14 near the mid TX coast, and subsequently strengthens Laura right over the loop current and bumping into strong ridging building in. Similar trajectory to 12z but much stronger.