ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Sure does look like consolidation happening @12.3N/44.6W...

[wx98]

Is initialized well, but it does show the eastern vorticity taking over as it rotates westward and the western vorticity dying out later today, we will see if it is right, but doubtful.

https://i.imgur.com/PmG24xZ.gif

If the western vort is what they would begin issuing advisories on, and this shows the eastern vort taking over, maybe they are waiting until one completely dies so the other can become dominant. That way they don’t begin tracking a dying vort.

No advisories yet when a well defined surface closed circulation is still not present, even the most aggressive models, HWRF & ICON, do not show a well defined closed circulation until at least tomorrow.

Obviously that is the case, as I was saying. They wouldn’t begin tracking a dying vort. So if one isn’t dominant and well-defined, that’s what they are waiting on.

[SFLcane]

we'll know in 6-12 hours if the Euro is wrong about the convection.

[Aric Dunn]

First ASCAT missed the center. but all is not lost..

there is no longer a vort or a convergence boundary to the NE. my suspicions of it being much more Circular are looking good.

[cycloneye]

Blown Away , is more south.

98L INVEST 200819 1200 11.7N 44.4W ATL 25 1009

[toad strangler]

Gaining absolutely no latitude. Something we haven't seen from models yet is a shift to S of the GA's.

[SFLcane]

First ASCAT missed the center. but all is not lost..

there is no longer a vort or a convergence boundary to the NE. my suspicions of it being much more Circular are looking good.

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/asc_a_20200819_10_28_flag.png

I mean sure.. It shed the first vort max but NHC definitely won't classify with waning convection. Not gonna change the fact that it can't sustain convection over the LLC.

[gatorcane]

As I have been saying, look at all the dry air and the upper low with westerly shear ahead. We don’t need models to tell us the environment is not particularly conducive. Euro and GFS agree:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[Hurricaneman]

Gaining absolutely no latitude. Something we haven't seen from models yet is a shift to S of the GA's.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this went south of those islands, seems the ridge is stronger than modeled and the models are saying this is moving at 300 when it’s moving 265/270

[Aric Dunn]

First ASCAT missed the center. but all is not lost..

there is no longer a vort or a convergence boundary to the NE. my suspicions of it being much more Circular are looking good.

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/asc_a_20200819_10_28_flag.png

I mean sure.. It shed the first vort max but NHC definitely won't classify with waning convection. Not gonna change the fact that it can't sustain convection over the LLC.

Convection always wains during this phase. and it has been sustained convection over the center... just because you dont see -90 top does not mean there is no updrafts or convergence.

Pulsing down of convection often leads to Genesis. as it allows the circ to contract increases convergence and when convection pulses back up.. off we go..

[SFLcane]

As I have been saying, look at all the dry air and the upper low with westerly shear ahead. We don’t need models to tell us the environment is not particularly conducive. Euro and GFS agree:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Ok shear is definitely not the problem.

[Nimbus]

Gaining absolutely no latitude. Something we haven't seen from models yet is a shift to S of the GA's.

The switch to western vortex has the models initializing correctly.
If the spin up into a TS comes later in the NHC48 hour window then the track will be a little further south.
I think the GFS would have kept the core off the south coast of PR if it were run tomorrow (without TC genesis at the time of the run)

[Aric Dunn]

As I have been saying, look at all the dry air and the upper low with westerly shear ahead. We don’t need models to tell us the environment is not particularly conducive. Euro and GFS agree:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

go back a couple of pages this has been covered already..

[toad strangler]

As I have been saying, look at all the dry air and the upper low with westerly shear ahead. We don’t need models to tell us the environment is not particularly conducive. Euro and GFS agree:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Well, the only problem with this statement is that the NHC says conditions are conducive. So ... there is that.

2. An elongated area of low pressure, located a little over 1000 miles
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated
area of showers and thunderstorms mainly on the west side of the
disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while the system moves generally
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[JaxGator]

As I have been saying, look at all the dry air and the upper low with westerly shear ahead. We don’t need models to tell us the environment is not particularly conducive. Euro and GFS agree:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

A lot of the models show the TUTT retrograding westward and it’s already starting doing that in the past 12 hours in the satellite loop Aric posted. I rather not 98L develop (unless it was certain OTS). And NHC sees favorable conditions.

[SFLcane]

First ASCAT missed the center. but all is not lost..

there is no longer a vort or a convergence boundary to the NE. my suspicions of it being much more Circular are looking good.

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/asc_a_20200819_10_28_flag.png

I mean sure.. It shed the first vort max but NHC definitely won't classify with waning convection. Not gonna change the fact that it can't sustain convection over the LLC.

Convection always wains during this phase. and it has been sustained convection over the center... just because you dont see -90 top does not mean there is no updrafts or convergence.

Pulsing down of convection often leads to Genesis. as it allows the circ to contract increases convergence and when convection pulses back up.. off we go..

Or it never comes back and the Euro is right. We will see.

[Aric Dunn]

I mean sure.. It shed the first vort max but NHC definitely won't classify with waning convection. Not gonna change the fact that it can't sustain convection over the LLC.

Convection always wains during this phase. and it has been sustained convection over the center... just because you dont see -90 top does not mean there is no updrafts or convergence.

Pulsing down of convection often leads to Genesis. as it allows the circ to contract increases convergence and when convection pulses back up.. off we go..

Or it never comes back and the Euro is right. We will see.

the convection is not gone.. pulse down does not mean convection vanishes like a fart in the wind.. lol

[SFLcane]

06z EPS certainly shows no sign.

[AutoPenalti]

DMAX did its job. Let's see what happens within the next 12 hours.

[toad strangler]

06z EPS certainly shows no sign.

Does 6z poof the wave or is there still a wave?