ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Big ole burst right over the center.. long curved band band has developed..

if recon is still heading out.. it actually find a hurricane by the time it leaves.

[aspen]

Levi posted a video on Nana. He’s a little conservative when it comes to intensity because of an upper level low that’s currently producing shear and, according to the GFS, will produce northern upper and mid-level shear as Nana approaches landfall. This can tilt the vortex and lead to a lopsided storm with more convection in the south. However, he does mention the typical uncertainty when it comes to these tiny circulations that can either intensify really quickly or die really quickly.

[wxman57]

Good video just uploaded by Levi at Tropical Tidbits. It does look like, in this case, a stronger storm will not turn northward. Might even turn south of west. Not very concerned about Nana reaching the Gulf. Also, very small storms can strengthen and weaken very quickly, as we saw with Marco. I'm not so sure it'll reach hurricane strength, and it may be weakening rapidly as it nears landfall due to increasing shear.

[tropicwatch]

Big ole burst right over the center.. long curved band band has developed..

if recon is still heading out.. it actually find a hurricane by the time it leaves.

Looks like they turned back about twenty minutes ago.

[Nuno]

Big ole burst right over the center.. long curved band band has developed..

if recon is still heading out.. it actually find a hurricane by the time it leaves.

Yep, the banding is quite obvious now. That burst over the center is going to keep tightening this thing.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Nana
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIzpfqX-98c

[Aric Dunn]

new plane is has taken off.

[cheezyWXguy]

That burst looks really intense, and it’s recent westward expansion looks to be right over the center to me.

[xironman]

new plane is has taken off.

They did a head fake north, and now turned around...

[aspen]

That’s one big convective burst. It’s covered where the center likely is, but we’d need recon to confirm. I think a couple mbar pressure drop from the last flight is likely; maybe it’ll be in the high 990s.

[drezee]

That flow around that upper low to the NE is dumping rain on Haiti....4 inch hourly rates

[Nimbus]

That flow around that upper low to the NE is dumping rain on Haiti....4 inch hourly rates

Might take more outflow volume than a 6 mile wide eye can provide to fill that upper low before landfall..

[USTropics]

AF301 has replaced AF308 (appears to be equipment failure) and is en route to Nana.

[USTropics]

Strong convective burst the past few hours as daylight fades, we'll see what recon finds in about ~45 minutes:

[us89]

I never thought I'd be typing this, but if that core from earlier survived today we may well have a hurricane by the morning.

[Kingarabian]

Recon may find a hurricane from this. SSMIS pass showed that about 2 hours ago, it does look like that below the big burst of convection there is an organizing core. Looks like the eyewall is pretty well defined @ the lower levels.

[BYG Jacob]

Recon may find a hurricane from this. SSMIS pass showed that about 2 hours ago, it does look like that below the big burst of convection there is an organizing core. Looks like the eyewall is pretty well defined @ the lower levels.
https://i.imgur.com/4oqEzZl.jpg

Need better resolution

[drezee]

Recon will not make it before 0z. I smell an update statement after it gets a fix...

[Kingarabian]

Recon may find a hurricane from this. SSMIS pass showed that about 2 hours ago, it does look like that below the big burst of convection there is an organizing core. Looks like the eyewall is pretty well defined @ the lower levels.
https://i.imgur.com/4oqEzZl.jpg

[url]https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*T2N21mpIF7lBi7GoxIPV9w.gif[url]

Need better resolution

37z ghz resolution is the best these satellites can do right now. Sorry.

[BYG Jacob]

Recon may find a hurricane from this. SSMIS pass showed that about 2 hours ago, it does look like that below the big burst of convection there is an organizing core. Looks like the eyewall is pretty well defined @ the lower levels.
https://i.imgur.com/4oqEzZl.jpg

[url]https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*T2N21mpIF7lBi7GoxIPV9w.gif[url]

Need better resolution

37z ghz resolution is the best these satellites can do right now. Sorry.

It isn't the satellites fault, especially since Nana is tiny. I just can't make anything out of that image