ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

All the power in this season has occurred during the second half of the season. Everything was weak and sheared and now everything is strong....

Started out producing tropical storms and now it produces powerful hurricanes. One after another!

The effects of the moderate to strong La Niña are now dominating in the Atlantic.

[LarryWx]

Since Eta would (probably) have an upgrade time of 00Z November 1, it would be a November storm?

This is tricky. I count the day of TC genesis (TD) to determine the month of genesis. So, to me this will count as an Oct TC. But that's how I handle them as we all have different ways of doing this and there isn't just one right way.

[LarryWx]

It is now TS Eta.

[Owasso]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ETA...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTS
OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 74.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[CrazyC83]

First time we've got to 28 storms operationally in a season. If TD10 is found to have been a TS, we'd be in uncharted waters right now.

[CrazyC83]

All the power in this season has occurred during the second half of the season. Everything was weak and sheared and now everything is strong....

Started out producing tropical storms and now it produces powerful hurricanes. One after another!

If we can get a quick Theta somewhere (i.e. a short lived subtropical storm), Iota sounds bad...another "I" storm, except in November...

[aspen]

All the power in this season has occurred during the second half of the season. Everything was weak and sheared and now everything is strong....

Started out producing tropical storms and now it produces powerful hurricanes. One after another!

If we can get a quick Theta somewhere (i.e. a short lived subtropical storm), Iota sounds bad...another "I" storm, except in November...

Theta appears to be possible within the next week. Either it’ll be something in the NW Caribbean associated with the gyre Eta is a part of, or it’ll be the mid-latitude system the GFS and GFS-Para have been showing recently.

[Owasso]

Landfall time clearly pushed back. 80kt peak.

[CrazyC83]

https://i.postimg.cc/htgnN96P/025007-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png

Landfall time clearly pushed back. 80kt peak.

If it doesn't make landfall by Wednesday, it probably doesn't at all...or barely over Cabo Gracias.

[supercane4867]

11PM forecast landfall location is basically Beta 05 redux

[edu2703]

ASCAT has missed the center again

[Aric Dunn]

Blah blah ... no reall new data.. just have to make sure it fits the forecast.

should have been a TD last night and ETA earlier this morning.. maybe in post season like the rest of the sytemsthis year.

[Sanibel]

There's a difficult forecast coming up with this storm...Unlike most years there's a High parked to the north over the Gulf Of Mexico that is going to drive Eta SW and in to Nicaragua...However there is a tricky synoptic down in the Gulf Of Panama where a monsoonal gyre of westerlies crossing over from the Pacific will counter-react to Eta's SW turn by pulling a wad of moisture from that monsoon trough up in to the western Caribbean where it will most likely form in to another cyclone...There's another permutation of this where Eta itself gets pulled back in to the Caribbean by that monsoonal gyre and redevelops after sitting over land... Which one occurs will depend on how strong Eta gets Sunday...A stronger system will resist the dive and make the latter scenario more likely...

[Blown Away]

Blah blah ... no reall new data.. just have to make sure it fits the forecast.

should have been a TD last night and ETA earlier this morning.. maybe in post season like the rest of the sytemsthis year.

Any chance this skims or misses N coast? Those mountains will tear this storm apart.

[Aric Dunn]

Blah blah ... no reall new data.. just have to make sure it fits the forecast.

should have been a TD last night and ETA earlier this morning.. maybe in post season like the rest of the sytemsthis year.

Any chance this skims or misses N coast? Those mountains will tear this storm apart.

of course it is possible.

the stronger it becomes earlier.. the less likely we see landfall.

[ClarCari]

huh
so they are doing intermediate advisories on Eta already.
The previous advisory didn’t say they were at all.
I just guessed they only do them if there are warnings.
Anyways intensity is unchanged, just a lil more west.

[psyclone]

huh
so they are doing intermediate advisories on Eta already.
The previous advisory didn’t say they were at all.
I just guessed they only do them if there are warnings.
Anyways intensity is unchanged, just a lil more west.

Any watches or warnings = intermediate advisories

[Shell Mound]

The 09:00 UTC advisory package delays landfall even further, albeit slightly. RI is explicitly mentioned as a possibility in the discussion, with landfall at 80 knots.

[Keldeo1997]

Here we go

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1322868961768296454