ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

If I had a 50 bucks for each one of these select people writing this cyclone off or trying to kill it, I would be set to not work for awhile.

Let's hold off on the eulogies folks please. This cyclone is still a significantt threat to not only the Florida East Coast but up the entire Eastern seaboard.

Oh.yeah, as long as you have a tropical cyclone over above normal sea surface temps, NEVER , EVER turn your back on its potential to thrive on that high octave source for it it to potentially intensify.

[tropicwatch]

Wobble watchers of America Unite but seriously with pressures falling I don't agree with the struggling posts. Looks like it is maintaining the status quo for now. With each westward jog, a landfall somewhere on the Florida east coast is becoming more likely.

Pressures have been on the steady rise this morning. From 978 to 986mb with latest pass seems like weakening to me. Also, water vapor loop tells the entire story itself.

The last two AF vortex messages have the pressure falling.

[NDG]

Official track is now to the right of the 12z TVCN, which is closer to Cape Canaveral. I will be surprised if they don't move the track back west closer to Cape Canaveral.
Right biased HWRF might be messing up the TVCN consensus solution.

[cp79]

I talked about this yesterday and a lot of posters tried to write it off as fiction. But I warned about the heavy shear coming from Cuba and the dry air really putting a choke hold on this system. Was clear on the WV and nothing's changed. Now you can see it in full effect really getting into Isaias.

As for its future effect, it probably in a way hurts Florida more because weak systems tend to take more left turns. My guess is it's going to dive somewhere in the Palm Beach area, maybe south. That's also good news, though, because it keeps it onshore and helps the Carolinas from getting a nastier storm.

[hipshot]

What is "Miss Piggy" lol?

The Hurricane Hunters plane

I believe it is the P3D hurricane hunter.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the trends have been definitely encouraging for SE Florida as most models keep this just offshore about 50 miles or so and weakening.

Just walked by a surf shop here in Jupiter in the plaza where I work and they’re boarding up with plywood as if a major hurricane is barreling towards us. I guess they rather be safe than sorry but that just seems a little extreme for what Isaias May bring.

[artist]

If I had a 50 bucks for each one of these select people writing this cyclone off or trying to kill it, I would be set to not work for awhile.

Let's hold off on the eulogies folks please. This cyclone is still a significantt threat to not only the Florida East Coast but up the entire Eastern seaboard.

Oh.yeah, as long as you have a tropical cyclone over above normal sea surface temps, NEVER , EVER turn your back on its potential to thrive on that high octave source for it it to potentially intensify.

Yep, the gulf stream can really energize a storm

[HurricaneFrances04]

I imagine not everyone is glued to S2K to see the latest developments of the storm. The last forecast called for a hurricane near the Florida coastline and hurricane warnings have been issued, so I don't blame the average person taking precautions.

[eastcoastFL]

Storms are starting to wrap back around the center

[CronkPSU]

Pretty easy to see the WNW motion on this loop due to small CDO.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

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looks very healthy on the visible...

[cp79]

Well the trends have been definitely encouraging for SE Florida as most models keep this just offshore about 50 miles or so and weakening.

Just walked by a surf shop here in Jupiter in the plaza where I work and they’re boarding up with plywood as if a major hurricane is barreling towards us. I guess they rather be safe than sorry but that just seems a little extreme for what Isaias May bring.

Boarding up is a little extreme. But hey, everyone's different. For anyone who's been through Andrew it can prolly be pretty traumatizing and even a 20mph wind can make you nervous.

[Steve H.]

I have to agree with northjax pro here. It's a situation where many are writing this off, and putting it offshore. The TC is beginning to improve appearance wise and I believe will intensify more today. It is not dead.

[gatorcane]

CDO is definitely expanding our westward and southwestward. Breeze is picking up here in coastal SE Palm Beach County. I am just a few blocks from the beach where it is usually more windy anyway.

[eastcoastFL]

Well the trends have been definitely encouraging for SE Florida as most models keep this just offshore about 50 miles or so and weakening.

Just walked by a surf shop here in Jupiter in the plaza where I work and they’re boarding up with plywood as if a major hurricane is barreling towards us. I guess they rather be safe than sorry but that just seems a little extreme for what Isaias May bring.

Nobody knows if it will strengthen further. So if putting a few pieces of wood up could protect your livelihood it’s well worth the effort. It can only hurt you if you don’t put them up.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Pretty easy to see the WNW motion on this loop due to small CDO.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

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looks very healthy on the visible...

Personally I wouldn't call that very healthy. Doesn't look like it is gonna be dying soon as some people are calling for. Isn't looking that great either though lol Will probably maintain strength.

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[TheStormExpert]

Not to sound like those writing it off but the worst of the weather should remain well offshore with the current NHC track assuming the westerly shear keeps up. Personally this is reminding me more of Matthew where we got spared about 60-70 miles here in NE Palm Beach County. TS conditions should be expected but nothing worth getting too concerned about in my opinion, unless something drastically changes.

[DestinHurricane]

I imagine not everyone is glued to S2K to see the latest developments of the storm. The last forecast called for a hurricane near the Florida coastline and hurricane warnings have been issued, so I don't blame the average person taking precautions.

Actually looking worse for FL despite the weakening. A weaker storm will go more west, worse for FL. Also it could strengthen back as it gets in the gulf stream with those warm SSTs.

[supercane4867]

This thing is about to get decoupled. You can see the low level circulation outrunning the CDO on visible satellite.

[jlauderdal]

If I had a 50 bucks for each one of these select people writing this cyclone off or trying to kill it, I would be set to not work for awhile.

Let's hold off on the eulogies folks please. This cyclone is still a significantt threat to not only the Florida East Coast but up the entire Eastern seaboard.

Oh.yeah, as long as you have a tropical cyclone over above normal sea surface temps, NEVER , EVER turn your back on its potential to thrive on that high octave source for it it to potentially intensify.

There is only one person on this forum allowed to kill off a storm and that is wxman57

[Canelaw99]

Well the trends have been definitely encouraging for SE Florida as most models keep this just offshore about 50 miles or so and weakening.

Just walked by a surf shop here in Jupiter in the plaza where I work and they’re boarding up with plywood as if a major hurricane is barreling towards us. I guess they rather be safe than sorry but that just seems a little extreme for what Isaias May bring.

Some shopping areas require boarding/shuttering once a warning is in place.