ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

NHC has the remnants of Marco fading on Tuesday night in roughly the same place Laura should hit Wednesday night. We didn’t get fujiwara like some in the media had suggested, but apparently the NW Gulf is the place to be if you are a surface low pressure.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

As much as I dislike a lot of the media overhyping things the models were showing a fujiwhara effect and mets were talking about it so media ran with it despite the fact things could easily change in the forecast...which it did. Also that "double hurricane" "first time ever" thing didn't happen it seems since they kept saying that. NAKED SWIRL CHURNING TOWARDS LOUISIANA lol

I wonder if the storm will get much play time since there’s a lot of political events this week. I hope it won’t have an effect on the speed of the recovery response. I imagine FEMA , national guard and the power trucks are all heading towards the Texas Louisiana border as we speak if they’re not already onsite for Marco.

[Steve]

NHC has the remnants of Marco fading on Tuesday night in roughly the same place Laura should hit Wednesday night. We didn’t get fujiwara like some in the media had suggested, but apparently the NW Gulf is the place to be if you are a surface low pressure.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

As much as I dislike a lot of the media overhyping things the models were showing a fujiwhara effect and mets were talking about it so media ran with it despite the fact things could easily change in the forecast...which it did. Also that "double hurricane" "first time ever" thing didn't happen it seems since they kept saying that. NAKED SWIRL CHURNING TOWARDS LOUISIANA lol

Yeah. I wasn’t knocking them for it. I’m sure everyone wondered what would happen. Models were trading off which would be the dominant storm. I got called out by someone for suggesting the second system was most likely going to be based on what was up. Here we are. I don’t know what if any influence Marco will have had on Laura or steering or anything else. But they end up in the same place a day apart. I don’t think we see that again.

[eastcoastFL]

NHC has the remnants of Marco fading on Tuesday night in roughly the same place Laura should hit Wednesday night. We didn’t get fujiwara like some in the media had suggested, but apparently the NW Gulf is the place to be if you are a surface low pressure.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

Let’s hope Laura is the end of this fad and it’s not so popular for the rest of the season. I think we’re 4 days into peak hurricane season though...

For sure. It’s been an ongoing discussion in the indicators thread, but even with Marco and Laura (plus Cristobal and Hanna), lots of the Gulf is untouched. And if we are going to stay in a western based season (or return to it), I think there will be more Gulf threats (East Coast as well). Laura will make landfall 7, and you’d think there could easily be 3-4 more, at least some as hurricanes.

I’m starting to think with the way this high is set up our biggest threats in Florida may come from the Caribbean and gulf later in sept/oct rather than from the east. But you guys might get it from both angles all season. I hope the folks in the come are taking this seriously. Good thing is they’ve been through it before so they know this is not a drill or a joke.

[SoupBone]

So is this the new center?

[FixySLN]

NHC has the remnants of Marco fading on Tuesday night in roughly the same place Laura should hit Wednesday night. We didn’t get fujiwara like some in the media had suggested, but apparently the NW Gulf is the place to be if you are a surface low pressure.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

As much as I dislike a lot of the media overhyping things the models were showing a fujiwhara effect and mets were talking about it so media ran with it despite the fact things could easily change in the forecast...which it did. Also that "double hurricane" "first time ever" thing didn't happen it seems since they kept saying that. NAKED SWIRL CHURNING TOWARDS LOUISIANA lol

Yeah. I wasn’t knocking them for it. I’m sure everyone wondered what would happen. Models were trading off which would be the dominant storm. I got called out by someone for suggesting the second system was most likely going to be based on what was up. Here we are. I don’t know what if any influence Marco will have had on Laura or steering or anything else. But they end up in the same place a day apart. I don’t think we see that again.

I think that ridge towards the east would've been stronger if Marco had held onto TD status for a bit longer. Would've made the western track much more prominent than it is.

Also, at some point, Laura IS going to pass over a cooler area almost in the middle of the Gulf. I haven't seen any models divert the system around that area either way. I thought there might be some more interaction with the cooler area, but Laura literally hasn't cared about anything during her run.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The storm is about to take off, it is starting to consolidate its COC. Watch out folks

[SouthernBreeze]

So is this the new center?

https://i.imgur.com/BSIOPUc.png

no, its just N of Cuba now

[eastcoastFL]

Just found by recon:

994.7 mb
(~ 29.38 inHg)

That must’ve been dead center because that drop had very little wind compared to the drops just before.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So is this the new center?

https://i.imgur.com/BSIOPUc.png

That's where the center was at 00z, or 8pm EDT.

[BobHarlem]

So is this the new center?

https://i.imgur.com/BSIOPUc.png

Was, around 4 hours ago when the models initialized.

[Kingarabian]

Based on the intensity guidance the NHC at 110mph is slightly on high side of the census so I guess it’s not so crazy that they haven’t called for a major yet. The 6z intensity guidance maybe stronger if the trend continues. The euro and gfs have fallen inline with the other models that were sub 950mb so it wouldn’t be crazy if things continued that way when she’s established over water again.

What I don’t get is why do some of them try to regain strength ?

Edit: oh wow the euro has it strengthening when it gets to the Atlantic in 5 or 6 days... hopefully Laura doesn’t go for round 2 like Ivan.

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_intensity_latest.png[url]

The issue with these graphics is that they go by the models wind estimates instead of central pressures. Nearly all the models are coming in with pressures that would support greater than 95kts.

[storm4u]

The storm is about to take off, it is starting to consolidate its COC. Watch out folks

Was just looking at that.. thinking in 6 to 12 hours she goes into beast mode..

[eastcoastFL]

So is this the new center?

https://i.imgur.com/BSIOPUc.png

Was, around 4 hours ago when the models initialized.

So just 3 hours across the island. 60 miles.

[superfly]

So is this the new center?

https://i.imgur.com/BSIOPUc.png

Was, around 4 hours ago when the models initialized.

So just 3 hours across the island. 60 miles.

Yup, it's flying. WNW at 20 mph.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Based on the intensity guidance the NHC at 110mph is slightly on high side of the census so I guess it’s not so crazy that they haven’t called for a major yet. The 6z intensity guidance maybe stronger if the trend continues. The euro and gfs have fallen inline with the other models that were sub 950mb so it wouldn’t be crazy if things continued that way when she’s established over water again.

What I don’t get is why do some of them try to regain strength ?

Edit: oh wow the euro has it strengthening when it gets to the Atlantic in 5 or 6 days... hopefully Laura doesn’t go for round 2 like Ivan.

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_intensity_latest.png[url]

The issue with these graphics is that they go by the models wind estimates instead of central pressures. Nearly all the models are coming in with pressures that would support greater than 95kts.

Indeed, and that's despite the global models (e.g. EURO) having lower resolutions (thus higher pressures than what it's "actually" forecasting, in a sense). In light of the pressures forecasted and the general model trends over the last 48 hours, NHC's intensity forecast seems conservative.

[eastcoastFL]

Based on the intensity guidance the NHC at 110mph is slightly on high side of the census so I guess it’s not so crazy that they haven’t called for a major yet. The 6z intensity guidance maybe stronger if the trend continues. The euro and gfs have fallen inline with the other models that were sub 950mb so it wouldn’t be crazy if things continued that way when she’s established over water again.

What I don’t get is why do some of them try to regain strength ?

Edit: oh wow the euro has it strengthening when it gets to the Atlantic in 5 or 6 days... hopefully Laura doesn’t go for round 2 like Ivan.

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_intensity_latest.png[url]

The issue with these graphics is that they go by the models wind estimates instead of central pressures. Nearly all the models are coming in with pressures that would support greater than 95kts.

I did not know that. I thought the wind speed was estimated off of the pressure. The HWRF has 129kts at landfall but gfs was I think 96kts yet the euro was much stronger.

[hurricaneCW]

Very favorable upper level environment right now. Only obstacle is Cuba still blocking inflow and a bit of dry air nearby.

Should really get going in the next 12-18 hours. I expect a massive burst that'll help consolidate this thing.

[Ubuntwo]

Based on the intensity guidance the NHC at 110mph is slightly on high side of the census so I guess it’s not so crazy that they haven’t called for a major yet. The 6z intensity guidance maybe stronger if the trend continues. The euro and gfs have fallen inline with the other models that were sub 950mb so it wouldn’t be crazy if things continued that way when she’s established over water again.

What I don’t get is why do some of them try to regain strength ?

Edit: oh wow the euro has it strengthening when it gets to the Atlantic in 5 or 6 days... hopefully Laura doesn’t go for round 2 like Ivan.

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_intensity_latest.png[url]

The issue with these graphics is that they go by the models wind estimates instead of central pressures. Nearly all the models are coming in with pressures that would support greater than 95kts.

Indeed, and that's despite some models (e.g. EURO) having lower resolutions (thus higher pressures than what it's "actually" forecasting, in a sense). In light of the pressures forecasted and the general model trends over the last 48 hours, NHC's intensity forecast seems conservative.

The euro is actually one of the higher resolution globals @ 9km. UKM is 10km, GFS is 13km, CMC is 25km.

[Cerlin]

I think whenever the sun rises we’ll be looking at an intensifying monster. Who knows how strong Laura can get but I’d be shocked, given the conditions, if it isn’t a Cat 1 by the morning.

[Highteeld]

Appears to be moving nearly dead west again