ATL: LAURA - Models

[tolakram]

18Z HWRF. No weakening at landfall.

[Steve]

No weakening. Not the ultimate storm, but it has a lot to work with. Here are a few other looks from the HWRF just before landfall (valid 7pm tomorrow):

IR


PWAT @ top of the chart


RH% (pretty saturated)

[Kingarabian]

Compared to the 12z Euro, 18z Euro solid shift to the east. Pressure up 7mb.

[Kingarabian]

Compared to the 12z Euro, 18z Euro solid shift to the east. Pressure up 7mb.

Pretty decent 50 mile-ish shift to the east on the 18z Euro compared to the 12z. Pressure 11mb lower now, down to 942mb.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro closing in on the area east of the TX/LA border.

[Ken711]

Compared to the 12z Euro, 18z Euro solid shift to the east. Pressure up 7mb.

Pretty decent 50 mile-ish shift to the east on the 18z Euro compared to the 12z. Pressure 11mb lower now, down to 942mb.

Did It go up initially 7mb but finished 11mb lower?

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro landfall 850mb winds + MSLP:

[Kingarabian]

Compared to the 12z Euro, 18z Euro solid shift to the east. Pressure up 7mb.

Pretty decent 50 mile-ish shift to the east on the 18z Euro compared to the 12z. Pressure 11mb lower now, down to 942mb.

Did It go up initially 7mb but finished 11mb lower?

Correct. Came in weaker in the short term but got stronger later.

[Steve]

I'll go ahead and speak for blinhart and say he's not liking that move by the European.

[Steve]

I chugged some milked down Vietnamese Iced Coffee, so you already know I'm watching the models roll in later.

Looks like we dropped into Phase 2 MJO today which is kind of cool as a relation to Laura's deepening. But that's probably partially coincidental.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html

[PTrackerLA]

I'll go ahead and speak for blinhart and say he's not liking that move by the European.

This has been a crazy storm model wise. Woke up this morning assuming it was coming in just east of Galveston and now I'm wondering if I should board up the front windows after all. Will still have time in the morning I suppose.

[WxEp]

00z SHIPS... still forecasting 90 knot peak. RI probabilities back down some after spiking up at 18z.

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LAURA AL132020 08/26/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 85 89 90 90 84 76 68 63 57 48 43 40 28 20 N/A
V (KT) LAND 75 80 85 89 90 58 37 30 28 28 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 75 80 85 88 90 60 37 30 28 28 29 33 34 35 33 31 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 3 13 14 12 17 24 19 12 20 25 36 45 66 81 86 67 36
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 1 2 0 0 4 8 1 3 0 -7 -8 -14 -10 -4
SHEAR DIR 333 305 306 272 257 265 255 289 255 256 248 226 213 218 237 246 256
SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.8 30.0 31.6 31.1 29.8 29.8 28.4 27.9 22.0 19.3 16.9 11.9 12.7 11.2
POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 171 167 171 172 172 167 169 147 141 93 83 77 70 69 67
ADJ. POT. INT. 163 162 156 152 152 172 167 142 148 131 128 86 78 73 68 66 64
200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -50.0 -49.5 -49.2 -49.5 -50.2 -51.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 -0.5 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 12 13 9 12 4 11 4 6 2 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 61 58 60 57 59 62 60 51 50 56 56 47 47 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 26 26 25 26 20 15 11 10 9 7 9 14 14 15 14
850 MB ENV VOR 40 12 -3 -11 -31 -66 -51 -21 -3 57 150 197 156 112 92 105 101
200 MB DIV 35 32 42 47 27 35 41 1 43 25 47 57 66 97 45 8 21
700-850 TADV -9 -4 0 7 13 9 24 21 39 11 13 -76 -85 -26 -53 -59 -35
LAND (KM) 400 362 283 206 112 -139 -424 -632 -719 -632 -168 95 125 12 318 730 1023
LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.9 26.6 27.7 28.7 31.0 33.6 35.8 37.2 38.3 39.1 40.8 43.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 88.9 90.0 91.1 92.1 93.1 93.7 93.4 92.3 88.5 83.3 77.0 70.0 62.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 14 12 12 12 13 19 23 26 29 30 29 24 18 15
HEAT CONTENT 63 65 52 35 45 7 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

[sphelps8681]

I know there will be flips and flops with models but don't we have a pretty good idea where this thing is going a little over 24 hours from now. A shift maybe 30 miles east or west is not going to make a be difference, Correct me if I am wrong.

[dantonlsu]

I am interested to see the EURO ensembles

[Hurrilurker]

So it seems like the concensus is currently somewhere in the high 940-MB area? But, it seems to keep dropping so I'm not going to be surprised if the next run some of these models are showing 930s.

[Steve]

I'll go ahead and speak for blinhart and say he's not liking that move by the European.

This has been a crazy storm model wise. Woke up this morning assuming it was coming in just east of Galveston and now I'm wondering if I should board up the front windows after all. Will still have time in the morning I suppose.

Really is. Started out with repeated runs by ICON and CMC showing 2 classifiable storms at either end of the Caribbean. That's already a red flag you'd think. Then for run after run over several days, GFS and EC saw little or no genesis with the occasional minor spin or ripples in the pressure fields. Once GFS and EC found the systems, there were wild swings and differences over which storm would be stronger and where. Almost all of the models in some of the runs over the last few days have targeted the general area of expected landfall. Sometimes the consensus would swing from west to east back to west in the 12z and 00z runs. We're a day away from landfall, and I still can't figure out if I think it's going to come in east or west of the LA/TX border and by how much. I could say something like 30 miles on either side which I think is what will happen. But that's a pretty big spread if you're trying to make a landfall call. 30 miles east and Lake Charles probably gets the eyewall. 30 miles west and.Port Arthur and Nederland see the inner core.

I told StormCenter last night I thought Laura would pass 90W around 25.5-26.5 which was why I wasn't all that worried. It will probably come in south of that. We'l know in a couple of hours, as the NHC has it spotted to the whole numbers in the last update - 25N / 89W. Majority of this afternoon's models seem to like 93-94 as how far west this gets. Maybe 94.5 (which you'd think is the farthest it can probably get). Because we're one day in, I'll be looking hard at the upper pattern tonight. For now, check out a couple of features to look for in a couple hours as the models come out:

1) Marco is now moving SW just south of the LA/TX border. Look at the convection it's throwing off. It's part shear and it's also now part of a boundary lined up parallel to the northwestern banding of Laura. It's also parallel with the high clouds next to its convection moving up NE from the trough (those are the clouds that disappear as day changes to night on this view.

2) Push of High Pressure is around Lake City. Look at the arc'd clouds moving across N FL from east to west just as sun goes down. Had that been able to get north of Laura, it would have kept her on a more southerly track. So how does that evolve overnight?

3) The remnants of the trough that fought (and is still fighting) Marco in Texas. Will that pull farther west or just mostly stay stationary and continue splitting back off to the SW? It has about a day to pull back or there can be no Texas landfall.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[Blown Away]

00z guidance has shifted farther E. Tough call b/c hurricane core is pretty small, but you have to respect being in the warning zone. Taking the risk not shuttering is something you will regret if things change and in some cases jeopardize your HO insurance if you didn’t protect your property.

Personally I can shutter my 20 openings in 3 hours and I wait till the very last moment, many times @12 hours before TS winds are supposed to show, this is just me. Good luck over there!

[Rail Dawg]

Meant to post in discussion. My bad.

Chuck

[Hammy]

No weakening. Not the ultimate storm, but it has a lot to work with. Here are a few other looks from the HWRF just before landfall (valid 7pm tomorrow):

IR
https://i.imgur.com/I0vQLcm.png

PWAT @ top of the chart
https://i.imgur.com/SNt38R2.png

RH% (pretty saturated)
https://i.imgur.com/XtdFiko.png

Is that dry air slot to the west form the continental airmass? A lot of northward moving hurricanes seem to see their eyewall degrade on the west and south as they approach land.

[NDG]

I should had stuck to my guns this morning that the Euro is west biased when a storm starts making the poleward turn around the ridges and not jumped on the train of the Euro Ensembles with many people including pro-mets on Twitter. I should had stayed with the TVCN, is a much safer bet.
Euro ensembles also did horrible with Isaias ahead of when making the turn around the ridge.

Latest 0z Early models, zoomed in.