ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[catskillfire51]

Quite a bit stronger from the last past they made through that area too.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like it jogged SW some since the last fix

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/744994799861366868/747681336071815238/recon_AF309-1313A-LAURA_zoom.png

Laura is ahead of schedule for even the HWRF which didn’t have the pressure down to 994 until 12z tomorrow.

[Steve]

If you live in Lake Charles, Beaumont, Port Arthur, or any of the smaller communities in and around those areas, you need to kick it into 4th gear tomorrow. Beat the rush. Get up early and get out or stock up on whatever you need. Get gas tonight if you aren’t over the limit.

[eastcoastFL]

Hurricane force flight level winds measured
https://i.imgur.com/xNWsenY.png

That’s the first purple flag I’ve seen so far with Laura. She’s off to the races

[Highteeld]

Really liking the robustness of the hot tower going off on the western edge of the LLC. This to me would signify that deep, rich moisture is finally making it into the center of Laura as it moves west of Cuba. This would also signal to me the start of an RI phase. I wouldn't be surprised to see Laura under 970 this time tomorrow; current pressure around 995 mb.

[eastcoastFL]

Really liking the robustness of the hot tower going off on the western edge of the LLC. This to me would signify that deep, rich moisture is finally making it into the center of Laura as it moves west of Cuba. This would also signal to me the start of an RI phase. I wouldn't be surprised to see Laura under 970 this time tomorrow; current pressure around 995 mb.

https://i.imgur.com/2lzQ556.png

I’m not sure if it’s starting RI already but 970 in 24 hours wouldn’t surprise me on bit. What would constitute RI?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Whew.

Code: Select all

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) which was observed 78 nautical miles (90 statute miles) to the NE (48°) from the flight level center at 5:07:00Z

[Nimbus]

994.9mb after crossing the tip of Cuba, nothing slows this girl down.
The west jog is normal for systems jumping to the north shore and we will want to be averaging 5 or 6 hours of motion as she rounds the ridge towards landfall.

Levi Cohen's shear explanation would make more sense for a Cat 4 hurricane needing perfect annular symmetry to attain Cat 5 status just before landfall. Even cat 2 core winds are almost perfect circles protected from light shear as they whirl around at 90 mph, its the tropical storm wind fields that get flat spotted by that kind of shear isn't it?

[Highteeld]

Really liking the robustness of the hot tower going off on the western edge of the LLC. This to me would signify that deep, rich moisture is finally making it into the center of Laura as it moves west of Cuba. This would also signal to me the start of an RI phase. I wouldn't be surprised to see Laura under 970 this time tomorrow; current pressure around 995 mb.

https://i.imgur.com/2lzQ556.png

I’m not sure if it’s starting RI already but 970 in 24 hours wouldn’t surprise me on bit. What would constitute RI?

30 knots in 24 hours. So 85 knots a day from now would qualify

[PavelGaborik10]

She's off to the races now.

[aperson]

Really liking the robustness of the hot tower going off on the western edge of the LLC. This to me would signify that deep, rich moisture is finally making it into the center of Laura as it moves west of Cuba. This would also signal to me the start of an RI phase. I wouldn't be surprised to see Laura under 970 this time tomorrow; current pressure around 995 mb.

https://i.imgur.com/2lzQ556.png

I’m not sure if it’s starting RI already but 970 in 24 hours wouldn’t surprise me on bit. What would constitute RI?

30 knots in 24 hours. So 85 knots a day from now would qualify

00z SHIPS gives that 36% likelihood fwiw

Code: Select all

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  24% is   4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  54% is   4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  36% is   5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  27% is   6.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  21% is   8.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  38% is   8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  34% is   7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  19% is   3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
 

[Highteeld]

Current storm motion of dead west to southwest if imputed into the models would probably mean a shift to Houston, maybe even west of Houston

[Highteeld]

Can't say this short-term westerly movement is surprising due to the amount of convection on the southern end (although the western edge looks better with the hot tower going up). Thus a tendency to pull the center southwest towards the surface pressure fall tendencies via latent heating has been occurring.

[LAwxrgal]

Unfortunately, I fear Laura looks like she could be another one of the lineage of Gulf monsters...I hope it doesn't happen, but given the time of year and the atmospheric conditions, it just seems more likely than not.
I have relatives in the Beaumont area - an area I've visited and am fond of - and I have advised them to evacuate.

[wx98]

Lost a tick of latitude:

2:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 25
Location: 22.6°N 85.0°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298140610923290624

[catskillfire51]

So just to be clear we are still no where closer then we were 12 hours ago?

[Highteeld]

So just to be clear we are still no where closer then we were 12 hours ago?

The models aren't. But current observations of the tropical storm would favor westerly solutions into Texas IMO

[stormlover2013]

Yeah we are getting closer, will be Texas landfall

[aperson]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1298145477662257153



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298144756883759105