ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Mid GoM beginning to destablize.
Large area of 2500+ CAPE in place now.

[GCANE]

Dramatic increase in rain rate now.

[N2FSU]

GCANE, do you think the HMON might be on to something?

[GCANE]

GCANE, do you think the HMON might be on to something?

Looks interesting.
That cold pool showing up on the last sounder image is key.
If it can maintain, then it will be able to pull a lot of energy out of the water and isolate itself from the dry air.

[GCANE]

GCANE, do you think the HMON might be on to something?

Looks interesting.
That cold pool showing up on the last sounder image is key.
If it can maintain, then it will be able to pull a lot of energy out of the water and isolate itself from the dry air.

On approach to Tampa.
Tilted but very dry eye and saturated eyewalls.
Coming in at a bad angle.

[N2FSU]

GCANE, do you think the HMON might be on to something?

Looks interesting.
That cold pool showing up on the last sounder image is key.
If it can maintain, then it will be able to pull a lot of energy out of the water and isolate itself from the dry air.

Thanks. Keeping an eye on it here in TLH, although I think anything stronger than a depression probably misses us to the southeast.


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[Wampadawg]

[quote="Cat5James"]Dry air saved So Flo from a major hurricane[/quote

[Aric Dunn]

There might be a slight tilt but there is a still an eyewall.
you only see the ouline of the other side of the eyewall. it is far from radar site and other convection masking it.

this is almost certainly a hurricane. and 50mph is laughable.

[SconnieCane]

There might be a slight tilt but there is a still an eyewall.
you only see the ouline of the other side of the eyewall. it is far from radar site and other convection masking it.

this is almost certainly a hurricane. and 50mph is laughable.

https://i.ibb.co/jHLgD98/ezgif-com-resize-14.gif

Gap between recon is laughable. Atlantic is turning into euro6208's WPAC.

[Aric Dunn]

Drifting east. Eyewall becoming clearer as it gets a little closer to the radar.

[xironman]

Am I reading this thing wrong?

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR- TEAL 73
A. 10/1130Z A. 10/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA2 1829A ETA B. AFXXX 1929A ETA
C. 10/0930Z C. 10/1000Z
D. 23.8N 85.0W D. 23.8N 85.0W
E. 10/1030Z TO 10/1500Z E. 10/1100Z TO 10/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[Loveweather12]

Drifting east. Eyewall becoming clearer as it gets a little closer to the radar.

https://i.ibb.co/hsPM4Fs/ezgif-com-gif-maker-30.gif

How might that affect future track? How are conditions in the Gulf?

[Aric Dunn]

Drifting east. Eyewall becoming clearer as it gets a little closer to the radar.

https://i.ibb.co/hsPM4Fs/ezgif-com-gif-maker-30.gif

How might that affect future track? How are conditions in the Gulf?

it is really complex out there right now.. the system is imbedded in a large mid level gyre which is causing erratic motion.

though a stronger more vertically stacked hurricane would tend to move NE and the approaching short wave should pick it up.

there is a lot of dry air well to west though the dry air appears to be being kept out. eta has developed a nice large moisture pouch to thrive in.

the models are crap right now since we have no recon data.. and it is clearly not a 50 mph TS.

[GCANE]

Continuous vortical hot tower firing with tons of lightning.
Superb outflow from it with radial fingers and gravity waves.
Feeder band in place from 2500 CAPE pool.

[ronjon]

Drifting east. Eyewall becoming clearer as it gets a little closer to the radar.

https://i.ibb.co/hsPM4Fs/ezgif-com-gif-maker-30.gif

How might that affect future track? How are conditions in the Gulf?

Think the obvious concern for us on the west coast of Florida is a strengthening or overperforming storm. A stronger storm will respond to the approaching trough and move ETA toward the NE as the HMON and COAMPs models suggest. In fact, if you believe COAMPs that could bring the storm into Tampa Bay in as little as 48 hrs.

[Kazmit]

is this gonna end up being the longest lived storm of the season?

[GCANE]

Nice looking warm core feature has developed.
If this can maintain for another couple hours could be seeing RI or even EI.
Cold pool seems to be doing the trick.

[caneman]

Eta seems to have really increased in size. Any buoys near by, ships, land obs?

[GCANE]

Obviously a center reformation in progress particularly of the VHT driving the vort to the surface.

[aspen]

When is the next recon flight supposed to head out...or has it somehow been scrapped as well?