ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

[galvbay]

Not liking the shift west in the models & the new forecast, especially parts of the discussion.

Thinking If I'm gonna bug out of Seabrook, will need to be by noon to avoid all the mayham.

We are across the bay from you in Chambers County. Good luck with your decisions. gb

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1298184991143272448

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

On this frame (09:57Z) it looks like a frog jumped on the head of a lamb who was really surprised by this.

[jaxfladude]

Now I'm on full alert and getting that oh bleep feeling. Prayers for all impacted and soon too be...

[HouTXmetro]

https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1298184991143272448?s=20

Does RI mean that she will likley be going through eyewall replacement cycle near landfall and weakening?

[Extratropical94]

104330 2314N 08550W 6957 03098 9916 +135 +104 015006 007 025 006 03

991.6 mb extrapolated

[hohnywx]

https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1298184991143272448?s=20

Does RI mean that she will likley be going through eyewall replacement cycle near landfall and weakening?

There’s no way to know that at this time.

[USTropics]

https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1298184991143272448?s=20

Does RI mean that she will likley be going through eyewall replacement cycle near landfall and weakening?

RI simply means it will rapidly intensify more than 30 kt in 24 hours. What type of structure that Laura is currently building will be significant in determining if an EWRC takes place. Most likely outcome, if there is an EWRC, it will be closer to when the system is near landfall (pressure drops are modeled to be the most significant there with warm waters and light mid-level flow/shear).

[dantonlsu]

Not liking the shift west in the models & the new forecast, especially parts of the discussion.

Thinking If I'm gonna bug out of Seabrook, will need to be by noon to avoid all the mayham.

We are across the bay from you in Chambers County. Good luck with your decisions. gb

What have been your thoughts?

[Kingarabian]

104330 2314N 08550W 6957 03098 9916 +135 +104 015006 007 025 006 03

991.6 mb extrapolated

Maybe 993-994mb because the of the low pressure bias from the NOAA plane?

[dexterlabio]

https://i.imgur.com/xvM1rvH.gif

It begins.

[Nimbus]

After a westward jog earlier, Laura is estimated to be moving
west-northwestward again or 290/15. The synoptic situation consists
over a large ridge near the southeastern United States and a
weakness in the ridge over Central Texas due to an inverted trough.
Laura should gradually gain latitude and turn to the northwest and
north-northwest over the next two days while it is steered between
those two features, move northward late this week through the
southern United States, then move quickly eastward across the
eastern U.S. over the weekend as it encounters the mid-latitude
westerlies. The majority of the guidance has shifted a notable
distance to the west on this run, perhaps due to a weaker trough
over Texas and a more westward initial position of Laura (possibly
due to persistent northerly mid-level shear). The new NHC
prediction is at the eastern edge of the new guidance envelope since
I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of
model runs. But since the storm has been tracking west of forecast
expectations for quite some time, future westward track adjustments
could be required later today.

The only good news is that Laura has a shallower pressure gradient from her island hiking and isn't going through RI 6 hours after leaving the coast of Cuba.
Yesterdays subtle hints are becoming this mornings 11 AM forecast.
There is an "M" at the mouth of the Sabine river with models shifting track west due to a stronger ridge.
Rossby wave trough will briefly reduce shear and act as an outflow channel before landfall.

Theoretically this means RI near the coast of Texas with some drier shear not too far away.
Since rapid intensification causes a hurricane to need a larger eye to handle the higher inflow volume, it often precipitates eye wall replacement cycles.

So after sacrificing a goat all morning to get the ridge forecast from aliens, we can pray for an EWRC just before Texas landfall.

This is going to be insane..

[Extratropical94]

104330 2314N 08550W 6957 03098 9916 +135 +104 015006 007 025 006 03

991.6 mb extrapolated

Maybe 993-994mb because the of the low pressure bias from the NOAA plane?

Possible, let's see what the dropsonde tells us in a couple minutes.

[supercane4867]

https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1298184991143272448?s=20

Does RI mean that she will likley be going through eyewall replacement cycle near landfall and weakening?

Possibly, but ERC is not necessarily a good thing and the surge impact will be the same if not worse due to larger wind field.

[GCANE]

I think HWRF is more realistically putting the anticyclone in its proper place.
Shear goes to 5 knots in 15 hrs.

[NotoSans]

Center fix looks to nearly coincide with the warm spot on EIR which means a banding eye may be forming. Wouldn’t be surprised to see NE pass revealing Laura is on the cusp of becoming a hurricane.

[Extratropical94]

105630 2239N 08509W 6955 03148 0004 +104 //// 213058 062 061 031 01

~60 kts in SE quad. Laura is close to being a hurricane

[dexterlabio]

This is just my very amateur, non-met opinion, but there is some theory that I read somewhere in these forums that a cyclone with limited poleward outflow is susceptible to repeating EWRCs. And often EWRCs happen when a cyclone has been hanging intense in a long time over water. With regards to Laura, I believe the chance of undergoing EWRC is not that high, considering those things I mentioned earlier.

[supercane4867]

We may have Hurricane Laura.