ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

https://i.imgur.com/xvM1rvH.gif

Note the classic “foetus” or “fist” with expanding convective growth on the northern side of the circulation. This typically presages rapid deepening. If I recall correctly, Katrina (2005) featured a very similar convective pattern as it headed west-southwestward near the Florida Keys. Given the fact that the centre has been consistently trending southwest of the guidance, this increases the risk of a much more powerful system farther west over relatively higher TCHP/OHC in the Gulf of Mexico. One other factor to mention is the interaction of very subtle features such as the attenuated Rossby wave and the position of the ridge axis relative to Laura as the prospective hurricane nears Texas; this could result in critical, last-minute shifts that would significantly alter impacts to local areas. At this point, I still think that landfall is more likely to occur between Gilchrist and Sabine Pass, TX, than to the west of Galveston Bay.

[galvbay]

Not liking the shift west in the models & the new forecast, especially parts of the discussion.

Thinking If I'm gonna bug out of Seabrook, will need to be by noon to avoid all the mayham.

We are across the bay from you in Chambers County. Good luck with your decisions. gb

What have been your thoughts?

We are at 18’ asl. Did not get water during Ike or Harvey. Prepped to the max. Do not want to be involved with the evac fiasco...staying as of now. Lived on TX gc since 1955.

[aspen]

We may have Hurricane Laura.

It’s 60 kt at the very least. Once it does become a hurricane, it’ll be the first ever Hurricane Laura.

[Kingarabian]

CDO is in place now and its expanding. Also notice the -80C cloud tops are starting to go off near the center:

[supercane4867]

The strongest winds will be in the NE quadrant where the pressure gradient with the building ridge to its NE is the steepest.

[Kingarabian]

The strongest winds will be in the NE quadrant where the pressure gradient with the building ridge to its NE is the greatest.

Yeah I think they'll find hurricane winds on that pass.

[Do_For_Love]

She's several hours ahead of schedule if she is already a hurricane. We'll see about that, but either way, she does look pretty strong and to be intensifying. Night and day from yesterday morning.

[jconsor]

Historical context for Laura - a substantial proportion of impactful TX hurricanes saw RI in the 24 hours before landfall.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1298217461045702657

[Kingarabian]

This SSMIS F-16 pass shows Laura is very likely a hurricane:

Clear mid level eye.

[Kingarabian]

Actually supercane4867, the HWRF and HMON might be right in their large eye depictions.

Eyewall is rapidly building strong in nearly all quadrants.


Cyan ring clearly wrapped around.

[aspen]

Pressure is down to 992 mbar from this first pass, and well within the wrapping convection.

[Kingarabian]

Pressure is down to 992 mbar from this first pass, and we’ll within the wrapping convection.

Yeah 992 looks to be confirmed.

[toad strangler]

That looks like a textbook Cat 1
Laura did it, she survived the entire run of the GA's

[gqhebert]

CDO is in place now and its expanding. Also notice the -80C cloud tops are starting to go off near the center:
https://i.imgur.com/GYhQnmC.gif

Stronger ahead of forecast...judging from the data thats coming in this will possibly be a situation where a deeper hurricane goes farther west and feels the upper level ridge more than a weaker system would.... I don't envy the job the NHC has with this forecast.

[Florida1118]

All the "But Dorian" posts here are going to look foolish in a few days when we have an open wave going through the Bahamas. Recon confirms there's no circulation as all the winds are out of the southeast and the favorable conditions down the road aren't going to matter if all you have is an open wave scraping the north end of the islands, something that is a distinct possibility--NHC even points out their forecast is highly uncertain.

This is not Dorian, which was never in this bad of shape and most of the posts refer to down the road conditions, not the current state of things. Dorian was always expected to weaken based on the models (most of which poorly initialized it due to it's small size, similarly with Danny in 2015), which was what never happened.

I can easily point to Karen last year when people were insistent it would reorganize just like Dorian because of those favorable conditions, and that of course played out differently.

Whoops

[NotoSans]

Center dropsonde says 992mb/14kt which will support central pressure of 991mb.

[Do_For_Love]

Actually supercane4867, the HWRF and HMON might be right in their large eye depictions.

No kidding, that does look like a large eye!

[Nancy Smar]

[supercane4867]

Actually supercane4867, the HWRF and HMON might be right in their large eye depictions.
https://i.imgur.com/6iXxXkV.jpg
Eyewall is rapidly building strong in nearly all quadrants.

https://i.imgur.com/Pid5aK6.jpg
Cyan ring clearly wrapped around.

As soon as the eyewall completes and it begins to really intensify, the eye should also starts to contract. I've too many times that HWRF develops everything into a giant donut, but it could be right this time.

[Kingarabian]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgQz3YDWkAAg0_m?format=jpg

Lol of course these microwave passes don't miss in the Atlantic. WPAC and EPAC? Different story. We would be lucky to get one good pass all night.