ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

This is just my very amateur, non-met opinion, but there is some theory that I read somewhere in these forums that a cyclone with limited poleward outflow is susceptible to repeating EWRCs. And often EWRCs happen when a cyclone has been hanging intense in a long time over water. With regards to Laura, I believe the chance of undergoing EWRC is not that high, considering those things I mentioned earlier.

Need to watch recon data.
They measure the dewpoint.
When dewpoint increases, good chance EWRC is beginning.

[SoupBone]

Did the center jump north?

23.2N 85.8W

[Kazmit]

More and more -80°C cloud tops (pink)

[Frank P]

Did the center jump north?

23.2N 85.8W

Been watching the IR sat loops, sure looks like an eye is trying to form, does however give the appearance of the system taking a northly jump but would need RECON to confirm..

[NDG]

Houston/Galveston, you may have a problem this morning, I am sure the upcoming 12z TVCN will continue to trend westward.

[dexterlabio]

More and more -80°C cloud tops (pink)

https://iili.io/dUMGgS.gif

This has the looks of a classic Pacific super typhoon developing.

[sponger]

We are across the bay from you in Chambers County. Good luck with your decisions. gb

What have been your thoughts?

We are at 18’ asl. Did not get water during Ike or Harvey. Prepped to the max. Do not want to be involved with the evac fiasco...staying as of now. Lived on TX gc since 1955.

A fair point. Far too many get caught in the hype of a major and flee when they should be hunkering down. More people died in the Rita evac than the storm. It all comes down to elevation, proximity to the coast, intensity, quality of your structure, resources, location of family and friends, and needs. Evac has a lot of issues and hitting the road today will be an absolute mess. I have a sister in Tyler and would head there at 2.am tomorrow morning if I was less than 10 miles from the coast. Very few will see the top winds and the chance of a five coming in is still remote. On the other hand if you are coastal and low elevation you must run. If you are in a weak structure you must find other shelter. The time for hotel reservations and supply gathering was two days ago. This is why I have been here since 2004. Like with Covid, it pays to be aware of what is going on when threats are brewing. Now the panic begins.

[SoupBone]

Did the center jump north?

23.2N 85.8W

Been watching the IR sat loops, sure looks like an eye is trying to form, does however give the appearance of the system taking a northly jump but would need RECON to confirm..

I'm curious now how that will affect model initializations or is it just ahead of schedule.

[Kingarabian]

Airforce plane enroute

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1298222938324377600

[Frank P]

Did the center jump north?

23.2N 85.8W

Been watching the IR sat loops, sure looks like an eye is trying to form, does however give the appearance of the system taking a northly jump but would need RECON to confirm..

I'm curious now how that will affect model initializations or is it just ahead of schedule.

Not really sure if it means anything right now, system is still forming albeit getting much better organized.... I would think we would need consistent RECON data to determine if that "jump" was just a wobble or perhaps brought on by the formation process... or maybe the prior location was just an estimate by the NHC.... once the eye forms we, along with RECON, we can watch the evolution of the process to determine when and where the wobbles occur.. I look to see where the system is tracking along the projected forecast path... if its on the south side, bad for TX, if its on the north side, bad for LA... we'll have real time help with the satellite presentations once we get the eye well established..

[supercane4867]

Surface winds up to 70kt possible in the NE quadrant. Those gradient winds at flight level are very strong.

[northjaxpro]

As a poster earlier said on the thread, Laura is like Secretriat, she is well and far off to the races There is nothing to stop her or inpede her trek. It is just a matter of just how strong she gets and just where she goes, It will likely make lahdfall very late tomorrow night into early Thursday morning somewhere from Freeport TX, to Houston/Galveston to the SW Louisiana Gulf region.

All we can now is pray and hope that the many millions of people in the path of this potential deadly cyclone are doing everything TODAY necessary to plan, and take action to evacuate if they are told to do so. Also, for those fleeing inland, please bear in mind that Laura will likely retain hurricane strength as far as 100 -150 miles INLAND after landfall during Thursay morning.. So be prepared for likely power outages in those inland areas.


My prayers to everyone staring down this potential beast in the coming days. Prepare for the very worse! Pray and hope for whatever the best of this dire situation God can bring to this entire region!!!

God Speed######

[galvbay]

Bolivar live webcam

https://www.bolivarpeninsulatexas.com/W ... rise-Beach

[SoupBone]

Houston/Galveston, you may have a problem this morning, I am sure the upcoming 12z TVCN will continue to trend westward.

https://i.imgur.com/HMDdjV6.png

But if there's a center relocation more north, then who knows? It's definitely threading a neddle. The Euro is still an outlier, with the TVCN probably at the Tex/La line, but that isn't comforting. Especially with a west trend in the models. Though the HWRF seems like the least manic of all the models so far.

[sponger]

As a poster earlier said on the thread, Laira is like Secretriat, she is well and far off to the races there is nothing to stop her or inpede her trek. It is just a matter of just how strong she gets and just where she goes, It will likely maje lahdfall very late tomorrow night into early Thursday morning somewhere from Freeport TX, to Houston/Galveston to the SW Louisiana Gulf region.

All we can now is pray and hope thatt the many millions of people in the path of this potential deadly cyclone are doing everything TODAY necessary to plan, and take action to evacuate if they are told to do so. Also, for those fleeing inland, please bear in mind that Laura will likely retain hurricane strength as far as 100 -150 miles INLAND after landfall during Thursay morning.. So be prepared for likely power outages in those inland areas.


My prayers to everyone staring down this potential beast in the coming days. Prepare for the very worse! Pray and hope for whatever the best of this dire situation God can bring to this entire region!!!

God Speed######

Good morning Jax, those power outages will go to Tennessee! This one will cause extensive widespread damage and massive disruption of millions of lives. Remember Michaels winds reached all the way to Atlanta! Thanks for your posts, we all appreciate the info especially from a N FL local!

[supercane4867]

Looks like we have Hurricane Laura now. Recon just confirmed.

[Kingarabian]

114630 2336N 08541W 6952 03114 9919 +137 +120 116044 045 066 010 00

[NotoSans]

NE pass supports upgrade to hurricane. A blend of SFMR & flight-level winds yields an intensity of 65KT.

[Ritzcraker]

Looks like we have Hurricane Laura now. Recon just confirmed.

Looks like there definitely was a northern component to that “jump”