ATL: RENE - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

One of the last visible shots of Rene for today:


Rene will be moving through 27-27.5C ocean temperatures for the next five days. While this isn't spectacular, shear and atmospheric moisture should be okay for the next few days, and the maximum potential intensity in this region is 950-960 mbar. I mentioned before that Rene could theoretically become a stronger hurricane quicker than expected. However, it looks like it will move through a region of >28C SSTs after 5 days, so assuming shear lets up, Rene could become much stronger here.

[AnnularCane]

18z best track is up to 35 kt/1001 mbar. We have Rene.

Rene on September 7th. Incredible, really. While it's not a surprise we had genesis today (18L has looked great since 'splashdown'), the overall pacing of the season continues to amaze. If modeling is correct, Rene should finally throw some decent ACE into the mix too, and really kick off September. Now on to future Sally... the date to beat is Stan's record of October 2nd. Anyone care to bet against that?

I will bet, ummm...a penny.

[us89]

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM RENE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 22.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1303070590216015873

[aspen]

Rene has one unexpected problem: it’s having difficulty producing deep convection despite it being in Dmax. The circulation is exceptionally well defined and there are also signs of banding and outflow, but for whatever reason, hot towers are not firing off around the LLC.

[Hammy]

Rene has one unexpected problem: it’s having difficulty producing deep convection despite it being in Dmax. The circulation is exceptionally well defined and there are also signs of banding and outflow, but for whatever reason, hot towers are not firing off around the LLC.

Water temps are in the upper 70s over much of the water under the northern portion of the circulation. Big reason the waves coming off at this latitude is inhibiting.

[Hurricaneman]

Forecast for this

Should continue to get better organized and become a hurricane in 4 or so days

Now TS. 40mph
12hrs. TS. 45mph
24hrs. TS. 45mph
36hrs. TS. 50mph
48hrs. TS. 60mph
60hrs. TS. 60mph
72hrs. TS. 65mph
84hrs. TS. 70mph
96hrs. C1. 75mph
108hrs C1. 85mph
120hrs C2. 100mph

[us89]

00z ATCF update holds it at 35 kt/1001 mb

18L RENE 200908 0000 16.1N 22.9W ATL 35 1001

[TallyTracker]

Rene has one unexpected problem: it’s having difficulty producing deep convection despite it being in Dmax. The circulation is exceptionally well defined and there are also signs of banding and outflow, but for whatever reason, hot towers are not firing off around the LLC.

I believe evening is actually DMIN while early morning before sunrise is DMAX. A reduction in convection at this time isn’t unexpected. Within the next few hours that should change.

[CrazyC83]

Rene has one unexpected problem: it’s having difficulty producing deep convection despite it being in Dmax. The circulation is exceptionally well defined and there are also signs of banding and outflow, but for whatever reason, hot towers are not firing off around the LLC.

I believe evening is actually DMIN while early morning before sunrise is DMAX. A reduction in convection at this time isn’t unexpected. Within the next few hours that should change.

It's overnight/early morning in that part of the world though.

[al78]

The chances of not getting to the Greeks is little to none at this point.

I don't think it is a question of getting to the Greek's, it is a question of whether this year can beat 2005's 28 storms.

Regardless of whether or not we have a new record for named storms, this year doesn't hold a candle to 2005 in terms of storm intensity and human impact (thankfully). It is a little surprising so many storms have been struggling with shear given we have had weak La Nina conditions through the peak months. Somehow I think residents in the tropics and subtropics have dodged a bullet so far (with the exception of those impacted by Laura).

[Buck]

The chances of not getting to the Greeks is little to none at this point.

I don't think it is a question of getting to the Greek's, it is a question of whether this year can beat 2005's 28 storms.

Regardless of whether or not we have a new record for named storms, this year doesn't hold a candle to 2005 in terms of storm intensity and human impact (thankfully). It is a little surprising so many storms have been struggling with shear given we have had weak La Nina conditions through the peak months. Somehow I think residents in the tropics and subtropics have dodged a bullet so far (with the exception of those impacted by Laura).

Let’s hope it stays that way. But with it only being September 8, we have to add a “so far” in there.

[tiger_deF]

There are still hundreds of thousands of people without power in SW LA after they just got smacked by a strengthening category 4 hurricane in the gulf, we've already been metaphorically hit by a bullet

[EquusStorm]

Interestingly, Laura pulled off a landfall significantly stronger by sustained wind than anything in 2005 could manage to do in the US; nothing higher than a category three and only Wilma wasn't rapidly weakening at landfall.

Meanwhile though, Rene looks like crap in the short term lol. Hoping for a hurricane recurve but it's got a ways to go

[wx98]

...RENE STILL BRINGING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
2:00 PM CVT Tue Sep 8
Location: 16.5°N 26.5°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like there is some easterly shear impacting Rene

[BigB0882]

Forecast for this

Should continue to get better organized and become a hurricane in 4 or so days

Now TS. 40mph
12hrs. TS. 45mph
24hrs. TS. 45mph
36hrs. TS. 50mph
48hrs. TS. 60mph
60hrs. TS. 60mph
72hrs. TS. 65mph
84hrs. TS. 70mph
96hrs. C1. 75mph
108hrs C1. 85mph
120hrs C2. 100mph

Is this the official forecast from the NHC that you are posting or is it your own forecast? If it is your own, can you please make that more clear because some people may think you are simply posting the NHC's forecast and think it is official.

[TheStormExpert]

Forecast for this

Should continue to get better organized and become a hurricane in 4 or so days

Now TS. 40mph
12hrs. TS. 45mph
24hrs. TS. 45mph
36hrs. TS. 50mph
48hrs. TS. 60mph
60hrs. TS. 60mph
72hrs. TS. 65mph
84hrs. TS. 70mph
96hrs. C1. 75mph
108hrs C1. 85mph
120hrs C2. 100mph

Is this the official forecast from the NHC that you are posting or is it your own forecast? If it is your own, can you please make that more clear because some people may think you are simply posting the NHC's forecast and think it is official.

It's his own, which in my opinion is WAY too bullish as usual. I personally think Paulette has a much better shot at obtaining hurricane status than Rene.

Must've forgot to put the disclaimer.

[aspen]

Forecast for this

Should continue to get better organized and become a hurricane in 4 or so days

Now TS. 40mph
12hrs. TS. 45mph
24hrs. TS. 45mph
36hrs. TS. 50mph
48hrs. TS. 60mph
60hrs. TS. 60mph
72hrs. TS. 65mph
84hrs. TS. 70mph
96hrs. C1. 75mph
108hrs C1. 85mph
120hrs C2. 100mph

Is this the official forecast from the NHC that you are posting or is it your own forecast? If it is your own, can you please make that more clear because some people may think you are simply posting the NHC's forecast and think it is official.

It's his own, which in my opinion is WAY too bullish as usual. I personally think Paulette has a much better shot at obtaining hurricane status than Rene.

Must've forgot to put the disclaimer.

Paulette might be able to briefly become a hurricane later today, but hostile shear will keep it in check until late week/this weekend. Rene, on the other hand, has a few days to improve its structure and intensify into a hurricane before it has its own major problems with shear. Paulette’s best shot of becoming something significant are after day 5, once it (presumably) moves into an area of lower shear.

[plasticup]

The chances of not getting to the Greeks is little to none at this point.

I don't think it is a question of getting to the Greek's, it is a question of whether this year can beat 2005's 28 storms.

Regardless of whether or not we have a new record for named storms, this year doesn't hold a candle to 2005 in terms of storm intensity and human impact

I sort of disagree. By this point in 2005 we had:
Cat 1 x1, Cat 2 x1, Cat 4 x1, Cat 5 x2.

In 2020 we have:
Cat 1 x4, Cat 4 x1 (and this a CONUS landfall, arguably a Cat 5)

So the same number of hurricanes, one monster storm as a CONUS landfall. Obviously 2005 was worse. But not enormously so. 2005's real monsters (Rita and Wilma) came later in the season.