ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

My guess is that they go with 110kt at advisory time.

[AnnularCane]

Teddy: "Can't a guy even take a nap without everyone giving up on him?"

[Kazmit]

[ElectricStorm]

Dvorak estimates just shot up to T#6.2/120 kt now that positive eye temps are present.

The raw is still a little higher. It still is getting kept down by intensification limits.

I've never really understood the intensification restraints. Why do they have those?

[cycloneye]

NOAAS P-3 is flying now.

NOAA WILL FLY TWO 7-HOUR P-3 RESEARCH MISSIONS INTO
HURRICANE TEDDY, THE FIRST DEPARTING TISX AT 17/1200Z,

[kevin]

Laura and Sally were more important due to their impact on populated areas, but purely from a meteorology perspective this is probably the most anticipated recon of the season so far.

[RL3AO]

Dvorak estimates just shot up to T#6.2/120 kt now that positive eye temps are present.

The raw is still a little higher. It still is getting kept down by intensification limits.

I've never really understood the intensification restraints. Why do they have those?

Because observation shows that TCs usually have a limit on how fast they can intensify and it's useful to have those built into a automated algorithm. Think about how many times recon has flown into a plane and we see a low pressure but the winds "haven't caught up yet". That's the limit in action.

[ElectricStorm]

The raw is still a little higher. It still is getting kept down by intensification limits.

I've never really understood the intensification restraints. Why do they have those?

Because observation shows that TCs usually have a limit on how fast they can intensify and it's useful to have those built into a automated algorithm. Think about how many times recon has flown into a plane and we see a low pressure but the winds "haven't caught up yet". That's the limit in action.

That makes sense. I just remember it being weird with storms like Hagibis where they just explode and ADT stays lower

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1306595608933756935

[Ubuntwo]

The raw is still a little higher. It still is getting kept down by intensification limits.

I've never really understood the intensification restraints. Why do they have those?

Because observation shows that TCs usually have a limit on how fast they can intensify and it's useful to have those built into a automated algorithm. Think about how many times recon has flown into a plane and we see a low pressure but the winds "haven't caught up yet". That's the limit in action.

In this case it displays a limitation of Dvorak. Chances are it's been steadily intensifying this whole time instead of shooting up just now - I find Dvorak underestimates in the phase just before a TC presents a visible eye.

[RL3AO]

I've never really understood the intensification restraints. Why do they have those?

Because observation shows that TCs usually have a limit on how fast they can intensify and it's useful to have those built into a automated algorithm. Think about how many times recon has flown into a plane and we see a low pressure but the winds "haven't caught up yet". That's the limit in action.

That makes sense. I just remember it being weird with storms like Hagibis where they just explode and ADT stays lower

The original Dvorak technique had a constraint of 2.5 in 24 hours which was way too low. The current version of ADT has constraints for storms with eyes of 0.5/hr, 1.7/6 hr, 2.7/12 hr, and 3.2/18 hr. That let's it deal with explosive intensification a lot better than older versions.

[tomatkins]

The raw is still a little higher. It still is getting kept down by intensification limits.

I've never really understood the intensification restraints. Why do they have those?

Because observation shows that TCs usually have a limit on how fast they can intensify and it's useful to have those built into a automated algorithm. Think about how many times recon has flown into a plane and we see a low pressure but the winds "haven't caught up yet". That's the limit in action.

I hope recon flying into another plane is relatively rare for the sake of our brave hurricane hunters.

[RL3AO]

I've never really understood the intensification restraints. Why do they have those?

Because observation shows that TCs usually have a limit on how fast they can intensify and it's useful to have those built into a automated algorithm. Think about how many times recon has flown into a plane and we see a low pressure but the winds "haven't caught up yet". That's the limit in action.

I hope recon flying into another plane is relatively rare for the sake of our brave hurricane hunters.

Ha. I'll keep that typo. That's a pretty funny one.

[RL3AO]

The cloud tops of that convective burst has gone from the eastern eyewall to the southwest eyewall in 80 minutes. I wouldn't be shocked if recon finds a 125 to 130kt storm when they arrive.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Really hoping the NHC goes with at least 100 knots here... there's simply no evidence for only 95 knots at this time.

[RL3AO]

Really hoping the NHC goes with at least 100 knots here... there's simply no evidence for only 95 knots at this time.

If they go less than 110kt I'll be surprised.

[ElectricStorm]

This storm is likely already stronger than the NHC previous forecasts peak intensity

[RL3AO]

The 11am advisory will probably be 110kt and the 12 or 1pm special update/advisory will probably be 125 kt.

[BYG Jacob]

Really hoping the NHC goes with at least 100 knots here... there's simply no evidence for only 95 knots at this time.

If they go less than 110kt I'll be surprised.

https://i.imgur.com/TonNbFT.gif

You know a storm is going ham when convective bursts obscure the eye

[supercane4867]

105kt sounds about right.