ATL: SALLY - Models

[Ivanhater]

Another big shift east for Hwrf, landfal Biloxi/Gulfport

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Another big shift east for Hwrf, landfal Biloxi/Gulfport

Not good . . .

[MississippiWx]

Bad trend for MS/AL coastlines this evening. All models are coming in much stronger.

[Ivanhater]

So to recap the 18Z suite in order

Nam: Mobile bay
Icon: Pensacola
Gfs: Biloxi/Gulfport
Hmon: Miss/Al border
Hwrf: Biloxi/Gulfport

Quite a big shift from this morning. Let's see if it continues

[Dean4Storms]

Well I for one hope the shifts east don't continue, nobody here in the FL Panhandle is ready for anything more than some rough surf, heavy rain and maybe 40mph wind gusts. It would be a mad scene here tomorrow.

[SunnyThoughts]

So to recap the 18Z suite in order

Nam: Mobile bay
Icon: Pensacola
Gfs: Biloxi/Gulfport
Hmon: Miss/Al border
Hwrf: Biloxi/Gulfport

Quite a big shift from this morning. Let's see if it continues

About 120 miles between P'cola and Biloxi. Seems to be narrowing it down tonight...probably even more so by tomorrow morning

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Well I for one hope the shifts east don't continue, nobody here in the FL Panhandle is ready for anything more than some rough surf, heavy rain and maybe 40mph wind gusts. It would be a mad scene here tomorrow.

That is what I am thinking for here in SW AL also. We haven't done a thing, and I doubt many others have either.

[Blow_Hard]

Well I for one hope the shifts east don't continue, nobody here in the FL Panhandle is ready for anything more than some rough surf, heavy rain and maybe 40mph wind gusts. It would be a mad scene here tomorrow.

I'm not buying in on these Eastward shifts yet. I'll wait and see what the 00z models look like. I have not made any preps at all and still don't expect to have to. We've had two strong bands come through today. One around noon and another one around 4:00. It's not even breezy here at my location currently...you wouldn't even know there was a storm in the GOM. While I'm not wishing this on anyone, I really hope this comes no further East than where the Landfall point currently is projected to be.

[Ivanhater]

It will be interesting to see where the TVCN will be at 8 pm central. You can bet the cone will shift east at 10pm but NHC does not like to move too much at once

[shah83]

18z GEFS ensemble spread definitely still has plenty of members to the NO area...

[MississippiWx]

18z Euro will be interesting.

[Ivanhater]

18z Euro will be interesting.

I didn't see it posted but the 12Z did come in a bit further east than the 00Z run

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/wxmeddler/status/1305291006519148545

[Dean4Storms]

18z ECMWF into MS Coast around 978mb on Wed. morning around 8am. Maximum wind gust to 114mph.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro landfall in 60 hours. Significantly stronger and big shift east:

[Ivanhater]

What a huge change from this morning. All models big shift east and stronger

[DestinHurricane]

What a huge change from this morning. All models big shift east and stronger

Keep in mind that these models are still playing catch up to the actual intensity of Sally. Recon is finding pressures significantly lower than what is on model. Because of that, we could see more east shifts. Let's see what 00Z suite has in store once it initializes the intensity better.

[Blow_Hard]

18z Euro landfall in 60 hours. Significantly stronger and big shift east:
https://i.imgur.com/Q9J1fKM.png

Well, that gets my attention a little bit...

[bella_may]

18z Euro landfall in 60 hours. Significantly stronger and big shift east:
https://i.imgur.com/Q9J1fKM.png

Considering the euro usually underdoes intensity this is not a good sign

[ronjon]

What a huge change from this morning. All models big shift east and stronger

Keep in mind that these models are still playing catch up to the actual intensity of Sally. Recon is finding pressures significantly lower than what is on model. Because of that, we could see more east shifts. Let's see what 00Z suite has in store once it initializes the intensity better.

The other solution that may play out is the steering pattern collapses as Sally rounds the western periphery of the weak midlevel ridge somewhere off the north-central Gulf Coast and she stalls or loops until picked up by the trough midweek and then heads N-NE. This would definitely result in a more eastward landfall like the ICON. Have to watch model trends the next few cycles to see if any further shifts east are in store.