ATL: DELTA - Models

[MississippiWx]

12z UK Met

[url]https://i.ibb.co/CKrQMfq/6-F9543-AE-7608-4-F11-A893-16898-C61-B224.jpg [/url]

Getting dangerously close to Laura’s impacted area. Those people really don’t need another strong hurricane. Still enough to the East to not be harmful with surge or the strongest winds.

[MOGSY31]

If the UKMET comes in way west this run, I’d start to be very worried in SW Louisiana. Canadian landfalls in same area as Laura, very similar to Euro and ICON.

It sure did and at 948 mb at landfall!

12Z UKMET:

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 82.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2020 0 18.0N 82.3W 977 61
0000UTC 07.10.2020 12 19.2N 84.8W 968 66
1200UTC 07.10.2020 24 21.2N 87.4W 972 60
0000UTC 08.10.2020 36 22.5N 90.3W 964 64
1200UTC 08.10.2020 48 23.8N 92.3W 964 65
0000UTC 09.10.2020 60 25.2N 93.1W 956 71
1200UTC 09.10.2020 72 27.0N 93.2W 946 75
0000UTC 10.10.2020 84 29.5N 92.2W 948 78
1200UTC 10.10.2020 96 32.0N 91.4W 984 33
0000UTC 11.10.2020 108 33.3N 90.0W 994 24
1200UTC 11.10.2020 120 34.9N 87.7W 999 22
0000UTC 12.10.2020 132 38.1N 84.6W 999 30
1200UTC 12.10.2020 144 41.0N 82.1W 999 35

If I'm reading this right, since it starts off with the pressure 25 mb to high and wind speed 50 Knots to slow, we can add that those to the points??? Am I correct?

And due south of me


Geographic coordinates of Crowley, Louisiana, USA
Latitude: 30°12′50″ N
Longitude: 92°22′28″ W
Elevation above sea level: 9 m = 29 ft

70526 here also

[supercane4867]

Secondary peak in the Gulf is just as impressive.

[Steve]

GFS has shifted west again along with the ICON. Looks like the Euro isn’t so far off now to me. This is starting to put places hit hard by Laura under the gun again. Brutal. A few more shifts to the west and I’ll be in the clear, but ravaged areas of South-Central and SW Louisiana aren’t so lucky.. Never would have thought correcting to the WEST would be possible in October.

Stay tuned to GCANE end of the week, but if so, you could be in a tornado region if this comes in on a north or NNE heading.

[SoupBone]

HWRF coming way west of the last run, getting much close to the SWLA/Central LA coast. Let's see if the NE hook happens.

[SoupBone]

At 87 hours just west of Vermillion Bay at 951mb.

[kevin]

12z HWRF landfalls SW of Lafayette as a cat 3. 63 kt winds in Lafeyette at 90 hours.

[Shell Mound]

At 87 hours just west of Vermillion Bay at 951mb.

Unfortunately, even though it weakens from 929 to 951 mb pre-landfall, it undergoes one or more EWRCs and ends up with large TS/H wind radii at landfall.

Ad verbatim: big surge.

[SoupBone]

At 87 hours just west of Vermillion Bay at 951mb.

Unfortunately, even though it weakens from 929 to 951 mb pre-landfall, it undergoes one or more EWRCs and ends up with large TS/H wind radii at landfall.

Ad verbatim: big surge.

Yeah it would be pretty bad. I just wonder when the west shifts will stop. Lake Charles seriously does not need another Laura. I can't imagine how long it would take to rebuild after getting hit twice.

[Shell Mound]

At 87 hours just west of Vermillion Bay at 951mb.

Unfortunately, even though it weakens from 929 to 951 mb pre-landfall, it undergoes one or more EWRCs and ends up with large TS/H wind radii at landfall.

Ad verbatim: big surge.

Yeah it would be pretty bad. I just wonder when the west shifts will stop. Lake Charles seriously does not need another Laura. I can't imagine how long it would take to rebuild after getting hit twice.

Personally, given that the EPS/UK tend to be west-biased, especially with (late-season) systems, I think this will go well east of Laura, close(r) to Vermilion Bay.

[ColdMiser123]

There should definitely be some weakening from peak due to colder water just offshore, at the same time I'm wondering if the HWRF is overdoing the amount of weakening due to its known bias to upwell cold water compared to other guidance.

Regardless, even with this potential upwelling bias, the 12z HWRF has a major hurricane landfall into Louisiana. I would be getting prepared there for a high impact storm.

[Steve]

Models are coalescing around St. Mary and Vermilion Parishes in SC/SW LA. HMON hits around Morgan City late Friday evening @ 950. So a 2/3.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=87

HWRF hits Vermilion Parish around Abbeville, Pecan Island, Gueydan, etc. Worst effects from the system would likely be in western St. Mary Parish (Baldwin, Charenton, Port of West St. Mary, Lydia, etc.) up through New Iberia and Lafayette. It comes in at 951mb about the same time HMON hits a little east of there (10pm Friday).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=87

Last real storm hits in these areas that I can recall are Andrew in 1992 for Morgan City/St. Mary Parish and Lili in 2002 for Iberia/Vermilion.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Unless there is a drastic change over the next 12-24 hours in the tendency of the models I believe the MS & AL coasts are going to be 100% in the clear of Delta. Trends are one thing, but looks like we are beginning to see more agreement instead.

[Steve]

Unless there is a drastic change over the next 12-24 hours in the tendency of the models I believe the MS & AL coasts are going to be 100% in the clear of Delta. Trends are one thing, but looks like we are beginning to see more agreement instead.

Safe from the direct landfall for sure. But you have to keep tornadoes in mind for when those eastern-side bands come up. Could be trouble, but it's still too early to know what the atmosphere east of the storm is going to be at landfall. I'm actually breathing a little relief today too for New Orleans though not for my friends and everyone here from the Bayou over to Lake Charles. An Andrew like track would probably bring us numerous bands and power outages, just not widespread destruction. It would probably end up having some of the strongest tropical weather of the 6 times we've been in a cone this year.

ECMWF @ 500mb lays it out why it's doing what it's doing. Look at the Atlantic ridge - east, northeast and most importantly North of the system. This can't come up which is why it has such a random track for October. It's going to get pretty far west in the Gulf, but the EC may end up pulling a little back to the east to meet up with the other models. Here's 48 hours:

[CrazyC83]

12z UK Met

[url]https://i.ibb.co/CKrQMfq/6-F9543-AE-7608-4-F11-A893-16898-C61-B224.jpg [/url]

Getting dangerously close to Laura’s impacted area. Those people really don’t need another strong hurricane. Still enough to the East to not be harmful with surge or the strongest winds.

This could be a worst case scenario for places like Lafayette and New Iberia.

[ColdMiser123]

Very sobering Euro run, it was way too weak with initialization and still deepens this significantly in the western Gulf to a powerful hurricane.

[Steve]

And European at 72 hours 500mb takes it west of the LA/TX Border. Still about 26.5 north. If anyone - UStropics or subscribers there or to Weatherbell have the 6 hour plots, I'm curious to know when the turn begins. EC at 72 hours easily has over a day until landfall which would make it one of the latest to landfall yet.

[BigB0882]

If this hits around Vermillion Bay to Morgan City, will Baton Rouge be far enough to the East? What effects could we expect with say, a Cat 2? I guess a lot depends on if it keeps moving north or if it hooks NE.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Unless there is a drastic change over the next 12-24 hours in the tendency of the models I believe the MS & AL coasts are going to be 100% in the clear of Delta. Trends are one thing, but looks like we are beginning to see more agreement instead.

Safe from the direct landfall for sure. But you have to keep tornadoes in mind for when those eastern-side bands come up. Could be trouble, but it's still too early to know what the atmosphere east of the storm is going to be at landfall. I'm actually breathing a little relief today too for New Orleans though not for my friends and everyone here from the Bayou over to Lake Charles. An Andrew like track would probably bring us numerous bands and power outages, just not widespread destruction. It would probably end up having some of the strongest tropical weather of the 6 times we've been in a cone this year.

ECMWF @ 500mb lays it out why it's doing what it's doing. Look at the Atlantic ridge - east, northeast and most importantly North of the system. This can't come up which is why it has such a random track for October. It's going to get pretty far west in the Gulf, but the EC may end up pulling a little back to the east to meet up with the other models. Here's 48 hours:

https://i.imgur.com/m275d0M.png

That HIGH doesn't look like it is going anywhere anytime soon!

[SoupBone]

The Euro would devastate Lake Charles again. Can anyone say it it's further east/west? It looks very similar to the last run.