ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I'll remind you all that small storms like Isaias can weaken quickly and strengthen just as quickly. Pay attention on the coast of Florida.

This is very true. Storms like Charley and Michael come to mind that ramped up quickly. Things are looking good right now but nobody should be throwing any parties or declaring it dead until it passes their latitude. Crazy things have happened to storms passing the gulf stream in the past.

Amen! I tried my best to stress this very point earlier today in this thread.

[curtadams]

It really is a bit perplexing when one compared the vertical structure of a well developed hurricane and some random LLC left naked and spit out from under it's well developed mid to upper vertical core structure. This is neither though. I don't know how to categorize this storms present state other then having a tight low to mid level core but so shallow that it is becoming challenged to reach the higher levels of the atmosphere. Yet we have conducive low level conditions (low pressure environment with strong convergence and high octane SST's). Still, I can't think that left in it's current state Isaias would simply unwind over a couple days time. The conundrum is the difference that some explosive convection over center would serve to maintain and quickly rebuild a more resilient and possibly deeper eye wall. Even an increase in convection from resultant outflow boundaries occurring over the very warm waters beyond the core would typically imply increased moisture feed into the core of the storm. It really is quite weird to see this pulsating process constantly change the apparent organization of a hurricane.

This is a tilted storm. LLC and MLC are still linked, with the LLC providing the fuel and the MLC pumping the pressure, but are pushed away from each other by shear. It's not unusual. TS and sometimes even low-end hurricanes can chug along like this indefinitely. If the shear gets strong enough it breaks the link and the MLC flies off, aka "decapitation". Sometimes the LLC then puts up another MLC and sometimes it dies, depending on middle air conditions, I'd think.

[CFLHurricane]

Curious if it will be able to re wrap convetion

I am curious, as well, despite my pessimism towards its future development. I am only anticipating breezy showers by the time it makes its way to central Florida.

[Javlin]

The cloud structure is building W and pointing W a possible movement over the next few hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[toad strangler]

Curious if it will be able to re wrap convetion

I am curious, as well, despite my pessimism towards its future development. I am only anticipating breezy showers by the time it makes its way to central Florida.

Central FL or COASTAL central FL? Huge diff

[Weatherboy1]

Next couple hours are going to be for all the marbles here. IF he’s going to EVER be able to get his act together, it’ll be the next few hours now that he’s back over bath water and shear may be down a bit

[cp79]

If you don’t believe in the theory that weaker storms go west, well, it’s on clear display right now. I seriously wouldn’t be surprised if the center hits Miami and keeps going inland. I’m curious what the Euro will look like at the top of the hour. My guess is a big west shift.

[Weatherboy1]

And as an aside: What if the Canadian actually gets things right? Haha. Not seeing much N component to its movement for a few hours now

[Jr0d]

Naked LLC, all convection is collapsing. Isaias is no longer a hurricane and likely has not been for a few hours. The NHC keep it classified as a hurricane a 2pm because of the potential to restrengthen quickly and to not give east Florida's residents a reason to ignore the storm. If Isaias is still a naked swirl at 5pm, I think they will downgrade then.

I still think Isaias will have a major burst of convection later tonite.

A few days ago when we were taking sides on a Florida landfall or miss, I said miss. That guess is looking much less likely by the hour.

[Cat5James]

If you don’t believe in the theory that weaker storms go west, well, it’s on clear display right now. I seriously wouldn’t be surprised if the center hits Miami and keeps going inland. I’m curious what the Euro will look like at the top of the hour. My guess is a big west shift.

At this trajectory it would hit North Miami/ Hollywood

[artist]

White dashed lines nhc forecast line

[cp79]

And as an aside: What if the Canadian actually gets things right? Haha. Not seeing much N component to its movement for a few hours now

Canadian has been calling for this to be weak as it approaches all along with the weaker storm forcing a more west track. Hard to believe they may actually win the model contest for the first time.

[TheStormExpert]

Isaias just continues to fall apart. Before you know it he’ll be a naked swirl.

[chaser1]

Wow...... LLC is but an entirely naked swirl spinning off the west over the last very few frames. That's the great news. The bad news is "IF" there's any chance of Isaias rebuilding its middle/upper core, that will seemingly occur closer to (or over) coastal Florida then perhaps might have occurred otherwise. Normally I see a stripped LLC pulling away from it's MLC in the deeper tropics and it's "game over". But with great inflow and high octane SST's, could this be different? If we don't soon see some popping convection over or near center over the next few hours, then it's hard for me to assume conditions to redevelop are reasonable beyond that time. One thing i'll never forget is the surprise that caught everyone off guard here in S. Florida back in 2005. In practically 24 hr.'s back on Aug. 24, an unimposing T.D. in the W. Bahamas rapidly organized into Hurricane Katrina and plowed westward (WSW) into S. Florida. Of course, what later occurred up in Louisiana was the latter historic event that finally resulted.

[jlauderdal]

Winds picking up steadily in Dade county, pretty breezy now

Just had a nice rain shower come through southern Dade. My lawn and plants loved it!

Just got that one too, neighbor! Saved me from having to water my yard during a tropical storm warning

Heavy weather incoming to SFL in the next 30 mins

[wx98]

NHC still hanging onto a hurricane at the intermediate. Probably don’t want to drop it so fast and risk complacency among the public.

[artist]

[Hurricane Mike]

I don't know guys...that's a nice circulation entering the Straits. I think it could strengthen or hold it's own a bit in the next 6 hrs.

[jonj4040]

clicking back and forth through the 3hr intervals of the shear map on CIMSS I noticed the anticyclone south of Cuba gradually moving NW closer to Isaias. Is this expected to eventually move over the storm an lower the shear before the trough gets here. Even so I noticed that the LLC is under the second deepest red in the mid level WV product on the goes 16 slider when overlaying the viable in WV. Do we have good reason to expect it to overcome the dry air? I saw someone say that the Florida thunderstorms would help add energy to Isaias.

Thank you! new to the forum I homer these are valid questions.

[psyclone]

Uhhh. where's the beef. this thing better bulk up soon or it's gonna look like that powerhouse of a storm (Don 2011). Naked swirl watch.