ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

I literally can’t believe this is still a hurricane!

At this point I think it’s becoming safe to say Florida really dodged a bullet with this one, all that mid-level dry air and SAL that’s been continuously plaguing the Atlantic since late-June just doesn’t seem to want to go away. Maybe we’ll be lucky and this season will underperform in terms of hurricanes and ACE. Still think we could see 20+ storms though.

[jlauderdal]

Steve Mclaughlin on NBC 6 literally posted a tweet and said on air that there is "a 0% chance Isaias makes landfall in Miami Dade or Broward." I'm wondering how, in the Miami market, he doesn't know what the cone means. Ugh.

If he gets this wrong, he gets slammed for saying 0, the cone is wrong 33%

[Jr0d]

I am in Rockledge and besides clearing out my pool deck I didn’t even put up my shutters.

No need to until tomorrow if at all.

If Isaias looks like this tomorrow morning you are good, if it starts bombing in the gulfstream and you have a legitiment hurricane heading your way, I strongly encourage putting them up tomorrow morning.

My parents being older are playing it safe. My brother had to board up their windows for them.

[CronkPSU]

NNW heading imo

give you credit for your tenacity with predicting every model moving east and every motion being futher north than what NHC and the rest of the board is seeing

Does look like it just made a sharp NNW turn though. It may be just my eyes.

don't see it at all

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[NDG]

Virginia Key wind gusts to 41 mph with that squall that went through.

1 Aug 1:54 pm 79 NE 30G41

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track says is not a hurricane.

09L ISAIAS 200801 1800 24.8N 78.3W ATL 60 992

[Jevo]

NNW heading imo

give you credit for your tenacity with predicting every model moving east and every motion being futher north than what NHC and the rest of the board is seeing

Does look like it just made a sharp NNW turn though. It may be just my eyes.

Its your eyes

[fci]

Steve Mclaughlin on NBC 6 literally posted a tweet and said on air that there is "a 0% chance Isaias makes landfall in Miami Dade or Broward." I'm wondering how, in the Miami market, he doesn't know what the cone means. Ugh.

Actually, according to the Bryan Norcross video; the 11:00 AM advisory had Miami Dade and Broward no longer in the cone.

[cp79]

If I was away for a week and stayed away from the news and checked the satellite for the first time, I would guess that what's by the Bahamas is a depression. It is getting choked to death.

[fci]

Wow...... LLC is but an entirely naked swirl spinning off the west over the last very few frames. That's the great news. The bad news is "IF" there's any chance of Isaias rebuilding its middle/upper core, that will seemingly occur closer to (or over) coastal Florida then perhaps might have occurred otherwise. Normally I see a stripped LLC pulling away from it's MLC in the deeper tropics and it's "game over". But with great inflow and high octane SST's, could this be different? If we don't soon see some popping convection over or near center over the next few hours, then it's hard for me to assume conditions to redevelop are reasonable beyond that time. One thing i'll never forget is the surprise that caught everyone off guard here in S. Florida back in 2005. In practically 24 hr.'s back on Aug. 24, an unimposing T.D. in the W. Bahamas rapidly organized into Hurricane Katrina and plowed westward (WSW) into S. Florida. Of course, what later occurred up in Louisiana was the latter historic event that finally resulted.

Katrina became a Tropical Storm in the Central Bahamas

Katrina had a lot more real estate to work with.

Yes, that was my point.
Katrina didn’t suddenly become a TS in the Western Bahamas, it was earlier and Katrina absolutely had more real estate before coming ashore in SE Florida.

[Ian2401]

so is this going to rebuild convection or what? if so when is it going to

[NDG]

45 mph wind gust at the Fort Lauderdale Int'l airport.

Conditions at: KFLL observed 01 August 2020 18:27 UTC
Temperature: 30.0°C (86°F)
Dewpoint: 24.4°C (76°F) [RH = 72%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.89 inches Hg (1012.3 mb)
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 31 MPH (27 knots; 14.0 m/s)
gusting to 45 MPH (39 knots; 20.3 m/s)
Visibility: 2.00 miles (3.22 km)
Ceiling: 6500 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 2600 feet AGL
scattered clouds at 5000 feet AGL
broken clouds at 6500 feet AGL

[DESTRUCTION5]

I just won a race at Gulfstream. You can see the heavy rain coming down now. Next band in.

Can't play there. Saffie cheats.

[gatorcane]

Virginia Key wind gusts to 41 mph with that squall that went through.

1 Aug 1:54 pm 79 NE 30G41

Getting very windy here at the coast in Boca Raton. Also incoming feeder band should bring the strongest wind gusts yet.

[NDG]

so is this going to rebuild convection or what? if so when is it going to

GFS and Euro are still persistent that it will happen later afternoon and or evening.

[Steejo91]

 https://twitter.com/Tornado_Steejo/status/1289630334879846402

[fci]

You can keep saying it but I've been rather unimpressed with it from the get go. The NHC has been pretty accurate in predicting early on all of the obstacles. So, Yeah it can happen but I'm not expecting it to. We will see. Even if a high end t.s. of minimal Cat. 1 we Floridians handle these well.

Of course we can. I am a lifelong native Floridian. I have been to the rodeo many times with these cyclones my friend. So I do not need any tutorials about this from you or anyone else for that matter.

Be safe folks.

Easy sparky. NO one is giving you a tutorial. I've been a Floridian since 1976 and tracking hurricanes for more than 20 years. I've seen it all. You stated your opinion and I stated mine.

As yet another poster who has lived in Florida many years; maybe more than either of you; expressing our opinions is what this Board is for and if anyone was giving a tutorial it was not caneman.
In my opinion, as long as you are not slamming the NHC or Pro Mets, who know a heck of a lot more than those of us who have 20-40 years or more layperson experience; have at it and express your opinion, support your opinion, and don’t give us lectures or tutorials on what we can say.
(fci climbs off his soapbox and returns to watching this apparent non-event)

[eastcoastFL]

Looking better on radar for now with storms filling back in. Inflow looks a bit better on visible for the time also

[jlauderdal]

Steve Mclaughlin on NBC 6 literally posted a tweet and said on air that there is "a 0% chance Isaias makes landfall in Miami Dade or Broward." I'm wondering how, in the Miami market, he doesn't know what the cone means. Ugh.

Actually, according to the Bryan Norcross video; the 11:00 AM advisory had Miami Dade and Broward no longer in the cone.

Thats true but the cone has an error so for mclaughlin to say 0 is not a good idea.

[DestinHurricane]

You guys sure this didn't just turn NNW? Sure does look like it to me.