ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

I hope all is fine with the AF plane that has not reported data since 9 AM.

[supercane4867]

AF plane stopped reporting?

[wx98]

Has the AF plane stopped reporting? Still getting data from NOAA...

[hershels]

Place your bets people for 11am track. My money is on Bolivar but based on ECMWF 6z consensus, could be Galveston or even Freeport by tomorrow morning.

I don’t think they’ll shift that far at 11. Bolivar would be the southern extent in this first shift I would think.

I'd think Port Arthur or Beaumont in the centerline of the next shift.

[northjaxpro]

AF plane stopped reporting?

Yeah, I was about to ask if anyone heard anything or seen repotts from it?

Been quite awhile indeed.

[HoustonFrog]

Isn’t it 10am next model?

[Rail Dawg]

Houston is behind the power curve now with Laura in that there are no mandatory evacuations in effect.

Once they do get ready for what I have seen in over a dozen chases. Massive traffic jams. Cars out of gas. No extra water, food or diapers. 94 degrees outside. Fights at the gas pumps and food stores. Panic.

Here's to my being wrong. But a Cat 4 over Galveston has been my gut for the past 18 hours or so.

You all on here contributing is AWESOME. I read every word.

[Roxy]

Houston is behind the power curve now with Laura in that there are no mandatory evacuations in effect.

Once they do get ready for what I have seen in over a dozen chases. Massive traffic jams. Cars out of gas. No extra water, food or diapers. 94 degrees outside. Fights at the gas pumps and food stores. Panic.

Here's to my being wrong. But a Cat 4 over Galveston has been my gut for the past 18 hours or so.

You all on here contributing is AWESOME. I read every word.

Galveston is mandatory at this time...I think the rest are waiting till 10am update.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[tailgater]

I’m not sure if it’s because of loping/ wobbling but just looking at the satellite loops seems she has slowed somewhat. That if true could allow the ridge to build in even father west and less of of a northward turn as it approaches Texas coast. Not a forecast

[Shawee]

Dry air entraining from the east? This is one factor that could trip her up a bit (hopefully), or slow increase, even slightly? Having said that, she has been fairly surrounded by drier air for a while and seems to coup fairly well. Prayers to everyone in her path! http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[Ritzcraker]

I’m not sure if it’s because of loping/ wobbling but just looking at the satellite loops seems she has slowed somewhat. That if true could allow the ridge to build in even father west and less of of a northward turn as it approaches Texas coast. Not a forecast

Or it allows more time for the trough to dig into the ridge allowing for a turn to the north earlier...

[Rail Dawg]

Galveston is mandatory at this time...I think the rest are waiting till 10am update.

Ah very good! They need to get this started big time.

Thanks for the update.

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/hv5o9IA.jpg

That's as ideal is it gets. put it in a textbook lol

[Roxy]

Galveston is mandatory at this time...I think the rest are waiting till 10am update.

Ah very good! They need to get this started big time.

Thanks for the update.

Going to be Chaos in the area today. If you need a place to come storm chase...hit us up!

[TallyTracker]

https://i.imgur.com/hv5o9IA.jpg

That’s about as good upper level setup as you see with cyclones. Upper-level high centered over the center with strong upper-level winds to the north for ventilation. This doesn’t bode well for TX and LA...

[hershels]

https://i.imgur.com/hv5o9IA.jpg

That's as ideal is it gets. put it in a textbook lol

Ideal for me (Houston) for sure - but is this realistic?

[Beef Stew]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1298251448673800193

[KWT]

https://i.imgur.com/hv5o9IA.jpg

That’s about as good upper level setup as you see with cyclones. Upper-level high centered over the center with strong upper-level winds to the north for ventilation. This doesn’t bode well for TX and LA...

Yes that is a really impressive set-up, no wonder some of the models are flying off the top end with this system. Clearly going to be a major, its just how soon. The set-up tomorrow aloft looks very impressive I have to say, probably going to 4/5 at that point.

[sponger]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1298251448673800193

It would almost be better to ramp up now as the slow steady increase will allow later rapid intensification to catch many off guard. Houston board still thinks it is going to LA.