ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

[drezee]

Was awakened this morning by my teammate (who's off duty now) telling me of the track changes. He's driving his wife & newborn to San Antonio and will be ready to work from there. I was out of the house within 3 minutes racing to Kroger to get my four five-gallon gas cans filled for the generator. I'm sure hoping it goes in east of GLS Bay, but that's not clear. Won't be until tomorrow evening. Note that Laura is going to be very small compared to Ike & Rita. Rita's hurricane-force winds extended out about 85 miles east of the center, Ike's over 100 miles. Laura's may extend out 30-35 miles east of the center and 20-25 miles west of the center. Much smaller wind damage area, but not good near the track line. Looking at 120 mph wind at landfall, maybe more. Moved the track to just west of BPT now, but we are waiting for the 12Z model runs which will have the G-IV data before making any further adjustments west or east.

Be careful 57, let's hope the intensity forecasts bust...

[catskillfire51]

Was awakened this morning by my teammate (who's off duty now) telling me of the track changes. He's driving his wife & newborn to San Antonio and will be ready to work from there. I was out of the house within 3 minutes racing to Kroger to get my four five-gallon gas cans filled for the generator. I'm sure hoping it goes in east of GLS Bay, but that's not clear. Won't be until tomorrow evening. Note that Laura is going to be very small compared to Ike & Rita. Rita's hurricane-force winds extended out about 85 miles east of the center, Ike's over 100 miles. Laura's may extend out 30-35 miles east of the center and 20-25 miles west of the center. Much smaller wind damage area, but not good near the track line. Looking at 120 mph wind at landfall, maybe more. Moved the track to just west of BPT now, but we are waiting for the 12Z model runs which will have the G-IV data before making any further adjustments west or east.

Thank you have been keeping an eye on your updates as I am just south of you!

[Kazmit]

[Stormcenter]

Some good news is that the storm is not large and doesn’t seem to be expanding in size right now.

[wx98]

Interestingly someone on twitter (can't remember who though!) said that the air is quite moist upstream according to recon sampling so there really isn't much dry air entrainment happening right now. So its just a little lopsided.

Some of the drops from the recon mission well out ahead of Laura (like drops 15-17) indicate very low humidity around the 400-500 mb level. This would mean there is at least some mid-level dry air. But if shear is light and Laura is large (which both of these seem to be the case), then Laura will probably just shrug it off and push it away.

As of now I see some southerly shear over the western GOM. I think she will peak out before making landfall. Will there be any surprises before landfall? There always is.

Definitely always surprises. Shear charts do show some mid-level shear right now, which could keep it in check in the near term and allow it to intensify all the way to landfall like some models are showing.

[Aric Dunn]

we have a warm spot... a notch on the west of the towers.. an eye is coming very soon..

[GCANE]

Actually, there may be some low CAPE air trying to entrain into the Core.
Drop 2 showed about 80% humidity thru the boundary layer.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1298263639917395969

[wx98]

Winds are the same. Pressure down to 990.

[Beef Stew]

Should have a very interesting 10:00 CDT update from the NHC coming up in a few minutes...

[wx98]

Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 87.0W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to the
Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port
Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to
Intracoastal City Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Sargent Texas to San Luis
Pass and from east of Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Freeport Texas to San Luis
Pass.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Cuba has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

[Hypercane_Kyle]

New forecast is still showing 100 knots, but still with some time to go over water. Probably peaks higher in the NHC forecast.

[wx98]

Taking their sweet time on the discussion this advisory.

[plasticup]

This little jog east could be saving Galveston/Houston.

[3090]

Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 87.0W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to the
Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port
Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to
Intracoastal City Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Sargent Texas to San Luis
Pass and from east of Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Freeport Texas to San Luis
Pass.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Cuba has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

No surprises. Steady in every regard thus far as predicted.

[CypressMike]

Taking their sweet time on the discussion this advisory.

No kidding! I'm sure the pucker factor is quite high in the NHC offices right now.

[plasticup]

Taking their sweet time on the discussion this advisory.

Lots to discuss!

[wx98]

The cone remains nearly the same. Houston/Galveston are on the western edge of the cone.

[hershels]

Taking their sweet time on the discussion this advisory.

who had same track in the 10 AM CST office pool? Sheesh.