ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

There is only one question: When is recon going into the CDO?

EDIT: I spoke too soon

[NDG]

Saved radar loop, the circulation that you see is the mid level circulation which is to the east of the LLC.

https://i.imgur.com/pVMIxZh.gif

The MLC has all the convection... the LLC will follow

I agree, 18z HWRF shows it clearly that the LLC through tomorrow morning will be going back and forth trying catching up with the MLC as it moves NNE, it shows them to align better during the day tomorrow and for it to strengthen then before moving into the cooler coastal waters early Thursday morning.

[Jr0d]

Sand Key lighthouse about 8 miles off of Key West is showing sustained winds between 24-28kts....if these easterly wobbles continue we will see sustained tropical storm winds out there.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sanf1

[sponger]

There is only one question: When is recon going into the CDO?

EDIT: I spoke too soon

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-1829A-ETA.png

This should be interesting.

[crimi481]

Looks E.N.E almost. May land between Ft Meyers and Sarasota.

[underthwx]

There is only one question: When is recon going into the CDO?

EDIT: I spoke too soon

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-1829A-ETA.png

This recon mission should provide some much needed data for the next advisory, which should be interesting...

[MJGarrison]

Levi talked about a substantial decoupling of the convention from the center. Is that what we are seeing that is giving the illusion of an easterly component?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[beachnut]

Radar image out of Fort Myers sure makes it look like it is making a beeline for the SW Florida coast. Is Eta Charley's younger sister??? I trust the NHC, but this is a real complicated setup that the models have been all over the place with.

NOAA radars are outside Tampa and Miami. Nothing in Fort Myers. Which radar are you using?

Try using NBC-2's doppler: https://nbc-2.com/weather/radar/

Switch the layer to hi-res. I'm not sure if their doppler goes out that far though, they may be pulling in the feed from Key West.

[NDG]

There is only one question: When is recon going into the CDO?

EDIT: I spoke too soon

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-1829A-ETA.png

According to the 18z HWRF the LLC will be doing a big NE jog over the next few hours trying to catch up to the MLC to later make another NNW jog.

[Aric Dunn]

Levi talked about a substantial decoupling of the convention from the center. Is that what we are seeing that is giving the illusion of an easterly component?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

with that sustained convection it it decouples having a center reform farther east or the current llc elongate and get pulled is highly likely with this type of convection.

[bythetrack]

Just had a good rainband in Sebring.

[Iceresistance]

Recon is showing a COMPLETE decoupling of the main circulation, the only explanation why is inside the CDO. . .

[NDG]

Lets see who is right, Levi or the 18z HWRF which shows the LLC taking a big NNE jog over the next few hours as if it reforms closer to the MLC.

[SouthFLTropics]

Radar image out of Fort Myers sure makes it look like it is making a beeline for the SW Florida coast. Is Eta Charley's younger sister??? I trust the NHC, but this is a real complicated setup that the models have been all over the place with.

NOAA radars are outside Tampa and Miami. Nothing in Fort Myers. Which radar are you using?

Try using NBC-2's doppler: https://nbc-2.com/weather/radar/

Switch the layer to hi-res. I'm not sure if their doppler goes out that far though, they may be pulling in the feed from Key West.

That's the one I was using...

[Aric Dunn]

The winds per recon are veering .. center has/is reforming under the convection..

[Iceresistance]

The winds per recon are veering .. center has/is reforming under the convection..

Only time will tell on this one


55 FL winds also inside Eta right now

[aspen]

Assuming there isn’t a center reformation going on, Eta has an absolutely horrible structure — LLC exposed from deep convection, shallow pressure gradient, rising pressure, etc. I don’t see it strengthening much or at all. Recon barely even supports 45 kt.

[Iceresistance]

Assuming there isn’t a center reformation going on, Eta has an absolutely horrible structure — LLC exposed from deep convection, shallow pressure gradient, rising pressure, etc. I don’t see it strengthening much or at all. Recon barely even supports 45 kt.

LLC has acutally decoupled from a possible secondary circulation, but who knows! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Aric Dunn]

The winds per recon are veering .. center has/is reforming under the convection..

Only time will tell on this one


55 FL winds also inside Eta right now

[cycloneye]

29L ETA 201111 0000 23.5N 84.6W ATL 55 990