ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#421 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:52 am

Great to see two planes flying to this monster cane. The P-3 and AF are in the air.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#422 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:56 am

11 AM at 105kts.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#423 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:57 am

ADT game on

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 936.7mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.5 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +5.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.9C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#424 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:58 am

cycloneye wrote:11 AM at 105kts.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.

Finally, we have our second major of the season!
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#425 Postby us89 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:59 am

NHC's forecast peak intensity on this advisory is 115 kt ... I bet it's already stronger than that.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion (11 AM advisory at 105 kt)

#426 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:59 am

Officially a major hurricane. 105 knots, predicted to peak at Cat 4.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#427 Postby storminabox » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:59 am

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:11 AM at 105kts.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.

Finally, we have our second major of the season!


It took long enough lol
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion (11 AM advisory at 105 kt)

#428 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:00 am

Up to 120 mph. Will be a Cat 4 when recon gets there.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#429 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:02 am

us89 wrote:NHC's forecast peak intensity on this advisory is 115 kt ... I bet it's already stronger than that.

That’s only 10 kts more- likely way underdone.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion (11 AM advisory at 105 kt)

#430 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:02 am

I would be shocked if Recon doesn't find a legitimate cat 4.

NHC admitting their being conservative with 105 KTS.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#431 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:03 am

supercane4867 wrote:105kt sounds about right.

https://i.imgur.com/B4V1dPt.gif


The only thing I see on satellite that’s keeping this from being stronger right now is the browns on ir satellite not wrapping all the way around, but if that happens this could get really intense
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#432 Postby MarioProtVI » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:05 am

The 11am position still puts Teddy within the MDR at 19.2N or so - meaning Teddy is our first MDR major this year. I’m willing to bet 12z will be revised to 100 kt as well.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#433 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:09 am

When the red shades fully wrap around the eye it should get to T6.5-7.0 easily.

Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#434 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:11 am

This thing is going to get way stronger than 115kts
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#435 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:12 am

We're getting a SW to NE pass from the NOAA plane.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#436 Postby dukeblue219 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:17 am

Looks like a NE quadrant measurement in about 10-15 minutes...
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#437 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:19 am

live visible

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso2_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#438 Postby Do_For_Love » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:22 am

Teddy lives up to the hype, lol. Kinda getting that stadium effect in the eye. Gorgeous storm!
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#439 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:25 am

saved loop
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#440 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:28 am

Stadium effect starting to take place... probably a mid-range cat 4 now.
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