ATL: SALLY - Models

[Blow_Hard]

18z Euro landfall in 60 hours. Significantly stronger and big shift east:
https://i.imgur.com/Q9J1fKM.png

Considering the euro usually underdoes intensity this is not a good sign

Nor does the fact that according to that tweet from James Hyde that the 18z Euro had ingested all the NOAA dropsonde data and should've had an excellent grasp on what is going on with Sally. Obviously this is very concerning for coastal MS, AL and extreme western Panhandle (Pensacola). Probably going to have to stay up now for the 00z runs.

[Ivanhater]

00Z Early guidance. TVCN into Biloxi.




Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[Stormcenter]

And probably shift back west a little tonight.
I think a good bet right now is the LA/MS border.

What a huge change from this morning. All models big shift east and stronger

[Ivanhater]

And probably shift back west a little tonight.
I think a good bet right now is the LA/MS border.

What a huge change from this morning. All models big shift east and stronger

We will see but the models have been getting new data today and all models that show strengthening have moved east. So unless models come in weaker, I don't expect shifts west but it could happen

[MidnightRain]

And probably shift back west a little tonight.
I think a good bet right now is the LA/MS border.

What a huge change from this morning. All models big shift east and stronger

We will see but the models have been getting new data today and all models that show strenghtening have moved east. So unless models come in weaker, I don't expect shifts west but it could happen

I remember this with Laura, once the models got NOAA’s data they came to a lot better agreement.

[Ivanhater]

For example, the 18z Gfs ensembles. All the stronger runs are into Mississippi and Alabama. All the weaker runs go west



Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[DestinHurricane]

And probably shift back west a little tonight.
I think a good bet right now is the LA/MS border.

What a huge change from this morning. All models big shift east and stronger

Why do you think this? It is stronger than models expected so I would expect more east shifts if anything.

[Blown Away]

I think NHC has to shift warning E to AL/FL line?

[DestinHurricane]

I think NHC has to shift warning E to AL/FL line?

I think they will want to see 00Z suite first. NHC likes to keep things for sake of continuity and not make sudden big shifts.

[Ivanhater]

I would imagine NHC will shift east but will mention they are still on the western side of the consensus. As Destin said, they will wait for the 00Z guidance

[pcolaman]

I would imagine NHC will shift east but will mention they are still on the western side of the consensus. As Destin said, they will wait for the 00Z guidance

looks like a long night ahead .

[Ivanhater]

I have to put my mod hat on for a bit guys. I removed a few posts unrelated to model runs. My bosses like to keep chatter down in the model thead.

I will make a local impact/observation thread and sticky it though.

[Blow_Hard]

I would imagine NHC will shift east but will mention they are still on the western side of the consensus. As Destin said, they will wait for the 00Z guidance

Yeah, this obviously isn't their first rodeo and they know how to balance being realistic vs being judicious as well as anyone. I hate that I'm now going to be forced to stay up for the 00z runs.

[PTPatrick]

They can shift track Firmly into Hancock county pretty confidently and extend Hurr warn to dauphin island without new guidance at this point ...5 am can go to Harrison or Jackson based on the late night guidance if needed. Those would not be huge track changes...maybe bigger than they like but doable for a slow mover. They are in a tough spot because there greatest upside for strength is on the east side of guidance, An area which sort of let its guard down today. I can attest that my family on the water near the ms/al line has been in hurry up and wait mode until I told them to pull the trigger with the 18z. Thankfully they got outside prep done and just need to leave tomorrow.

[Blown Away]

I would imagine NHC will shift east but will mention they are still on the western side of the consensus. As Destin said, they will wait for the 00Z guidance

Yeah, this obviously isn't their first rodeo and they know how to balance being realistic vs being judicious as well as anyone. I hate that I'm now going to be forced to stay up for the 00z runs.

18z TVCN was E of Official and 00z Early TVCN big shift E from Official... There is only <24 hours before strong winds start. Yes they make subtle shifts when they have time, but if they are weighing heavy on models then they most likely make a big move E at next advisory...

[Stormcenter]

Track will shift east to Bay St. Louis, MS. IMO

[Ivanhater]

It is the Nam so take with a grain of salt but...

The 00Z Nam is also showing the scenario Ron mentioned and Icon is as well of stalling south of Lousiana and curving NNE now landfalling in Pensacola. I still think too far east but let's see the other models tonight if they pick up on this

[PTPatrick]

It is the Nam so take with a grain of salt but...

The 00Z Nam is also showing the scenario Ron mentioned and Icon is as well of stalling south of Lousiana and curving NNE now landfalling in Pensacola. I still think too far east but let's see the other models tonight if they pick up on this

I don’t know what the different resolutions of nam even mean but they have some subtle diffs. 3km is In MS and 32 KM in Pensacola. I think ultimately it’s a bit too Far East too. But it think stall and NE to Mobile or Baldwin is well within the realm of possibilities. Fun that they aren’t even in the cone...gotta love a good GOM stall job.

[Ivanhater]

00Z Icon Alabama/Florida border 1969 mb

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[PTPatrick]

Icon actually a slight shift west, was Pensacola but looking more Baldwin county. Perhaps we will see them start to condense on the Biloxi to Mobile area?