ATL: DELTA - Models

[TheProfessor]

I don't have time to upload the Pivotal Maps, but the Euro doesn't really ever make that turn before landfall, it would be absolutely disastrous for SW Louisiana.

[Wx_Warrior]

Euro 12z


image hosting

[Steve]

EC 96 hours (valid 7am Saturday morning). Looks like it would have landfalled a hair east of Laura though around Grand Chenier. From a population standpoint, track looks to landfall in a pretty isolated area as there isn't much along the coast between Grand Chenier and like Cameron.

But I recognize we have several posters who live in the areas north of there (Lacassine, Iowa, Jennings, Welsh, Kinder, Crowley and Eunice), and my brother lived in Eunice for about 10 years after Katrina (his wife's mom's people are from there, and she and his father-in-law still live out there). I know a lot of people in and around there and feel bad for them and all of you who might have to deal with it if EC is correct.

[lovingseason2013]

Unless there is a drastic change over the next 12-24 hours in the tendency of the models I believe the MS & AL coasts are going to be 100% in the clear of Delta. Trends are one thing, but looks like we are beginning to see more agreement instead.

Did we learn nothing from Sally??? Never let your guard down and def dont make broad statements involving 100% chance of anything. Prob will not hit in Mobile, but you never ever turn your back on a large storm in the Gulf. Sometimes they make their own steering patterns.

[stormlover2013]

EC 96 hours (valid 7am Saturday morning). Looks like it would have landfalled a hair east of Laura though around Grand Chenier. From a population standpoint, track looks to landfall in a pretty isolated area as there isn't much along the coast between Grand Chenier and like Cameron.

But I recognize we have several posters who live in the areas north of there (Lacassine, Iowa, Jennings, Welsh, Kinder, Crowley and Eunice), and my brother lived in Eunice for about 10 years after Katrina (his wife's mom's people are from there, and she and his father-in-law still live out there). I know a lot of people in and around there and feel bad for them and all of you who might have to deal with it if EC is correct.

https://i.imgur.com/Jlgp9nC.png

Windfield looks way bigger than laura

[sphelps8681]

deleted.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Unless there is a drastic change over the next 12-24 hours in the tendency of the models I believe the MS & AL coasts are going to be 100% in the clear of Delta. Trends are one thing, but looks like we are beginning to see more agreement instead.

Did we learn nothing from Sally??? Never let your guard down and def dont make broad statements involving 100% chance of anything. Prob will not hit in Mobile, but you never ever turn your back on a large storm in the Gulf. Sometimes they make their own steering patterns.

Oh I am definitely not turning my back on Delta, but it is looking much more like the possibility of us getting much is growing slimmer by the hour.

[sphelps8681]

I don't have time to upload the Pivotal Maps, but the Euro doesn't really ever make that turn before landfall, it would be absolutely disastrous for SW Louisiana.

Whaaaat!! You got to be kidding me!! Say it ain't so. I am on the border of TX/LA.

[Stormcenter]

I have a very hard time believing Delta will not hook NE
before reaching anywhere near Lake Charles. IMO

[BigB0882]

The Euro is just crazy. It sure has stuck to its guns and other models have shifted west, just not as far west as the Euro. I wonder if this will end up like Laura where the Euro finally came around late, and if so, will see eventually see it throw out a track so far west that Galveston is taking a hit? Or, is the Euro finally getting it right later in the season? I am pulling my hair out, Baton Rouge is right on the cusp of a breezy/rainy day or a possible Gustav redux which no one here wants.

[SoupBone]

Watching these model runs the last two days, I feel like that scene from Super Troopers. Instead of "enhance", it's "west", "west", "west".

[Wx_Warrior]

[texsn95]

I don't have time to upload the Pivotal Maps, but the Euro doesn't really ever make that turn before landfall, it would be absolutely disastrous for SW Louisiana.

Whaaaat!! You got to be kidding me!! Say it ain't so. I am on the border of TX/LA.

Start packing your trash now...just to be safe

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Don't forget the Euro was consistently too far west with Laura.

[stormlover2013]

Don't forget the Euro was consistently too far west with Laura.

has been west bias all year so we shall see if it gets this one right, Bastardi did say he thinks EURO is on to something still have 2 days to see.

[Blinhart]

Don't forget the Euro was consistently too far west with Laura.

has been west bias all year so we shall see if it gets this one right, Bastardi did say he thinks EURO is on to something still have 2 days to see.

However we have a pretty good consensus of all the models showing pretty much the same thing.

[stormlover2013]

Don't forget the Euro was consistently too far west with Laura.

has been west bias all year so we shall see if it gets this one right, Bastardi did say he thinks EURO is on to something still have 2 days to see.

However we have a pretty good consensus of all the models showing pretty much the same thing.

could shift back east towards new Orleans tomorrow, models haven't been good all year this far out.

[BigB0882]

Don't forget the Euro was consistently too far west with Laura.

has been west bias all year so we shall see if it gets this one right, Bastardi did say he thinks EURO is on to something still have 2 days to see.

However we have a pretty good consensus of all the models showing pretty much the same thing.

Yeah, the interesting thing with this storm is the Euro has been the western outlier but not by a shocking or unbelievable amount. I am very curious to see in the next 2 days if the other models come to it, it comes to them or they meet in the middle somewhere. If I had to guess, somewhere in the middle.

[MississippiWx]

has been west bias all year so we shall see if it gets this one right, Bastardi did say he thinks EURO is on to something still have 2 days to see.

However we have a pretty good consensus of all the models showing pretty much the same thing.

could shift back east towards new Orleans tomorrow, models haven't been good all year this far out.

Still ~90 hours left. More shifts one way or the other likely. My guess would be west since that’s the trend.

[Cyclenall]

Secondary peak in the Gulf is just as impressive.

*image*

That is the most impressive simulated IR model frame I've seen this year . That's not counting the bogus NAM sims though where it was showing 885 mb canes in the Gulf from Laura.

Those Euro runs are crazy, I'd be stunned if it made it that far west in the Gulf .