ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Ummmm. Super long time posters might recall a member from Jacksonville named hurricane girl that would famously post "holy crap!" when a system vastly exceeded expectations. That captures my feelings right now quite well. No matter how this shakes out...it is likely to be a much dicier scenario than I would have ever anticipated..

[Jr0d]

Clouds are warming quickly around the center. Recon might be a little late to find a hurricane...still some impressive flight level winds being reported, 69 kts.

[sponger]

Ummmm. Super long time posters might recall a member from Jacksonville named hurricane girl that would famously post "holy crap!" when a system vastly exceeded expectations. That captures my feelings right now quite well. No matter how this shakes out...it is likely to be a much dicier scenario than I would have ever anticipated..

How I miss her succinct and funny exclamations!

[robbielyn]

Good Morning from NPR/Hudson on the west coast of sunny Florida. This is NOT what I wanted to see this morning but here we are. I, fortunately, am off today as I work in the school system down in Tampa and we are off for Veterans Day. Lots to do this morning.

I personally don't see ETA landfalling much further north than Hernando. Maybe not even that far - hope it dies before it does. I imagine they will close schools in all coastal counties for tomorrow. Hope my husband's employer does as well.

I am hoping and praying that folks won't be caught off guard but I know they will.

Be safe all!

yeah i really thought we were going to escape this year since louisiana seemed to have hurricane magnetism. i live in brooksville not far from us19 just east of it. i hv to work until 5pm and live in a very old mobile home in a park. I may hv to secure lodging arrangements if they order mobile homes to evacuate. the only thing that makes me want to evacuate is a big tree hovering very close to my bedroom. other than that, i would stay as I don’t think it will be that bad here. i do think this will weaken once near tampa and by the time it gets here maybe weaken a little more. i believe landfall will be near cedar key. i wish your safety as well and you as well caneman and all who are affected by the storm.

[ronjon]

Ummmm. Super long time posters might recall a member from Jacksonville named hurricane girl that would famously post "holy crap!" when a system vastly exceeded expectations. That captures my feelings right now quite well. No matter how this shakes out...it is likely to be a much dicier scenario than I would have ever anticipated..

Yeah you and me both Psyclone. Sitting here at Hernando Beach might be ground zero for ETA to come ashore. This is shaping up to be Hermine part 2 with it closer and stronger. Preps this am at daylight.

[sponger]

This storm really dried out in seconds. What a weird little bugger. Models did pick up on this but I have never seen such a transformation in two hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=29L&product=vis-swir

[caneman]

Dry air seems to have got in the core. We may end up lucking out

[GCANE]

PVS is starting to weaken.
May have enough time over water to refire later today.
Stay tuned.

[Jr0d]

Recon found a pressure of 984.4mb but missed the center. I cant help but wonder what they would have found an hour ago.

[BobHarlem]

Seems to be weakening on satellite, but recon just found 984 (no vortex yet though).

[xironman]

Seems to be weakening on satellite, but recon just found 984 (no vortex yet though).

HRRR still holding on to the convective burst by 8am, normally it is pretty good at that.

[caneman]

Seems to be weakening on satellite, but recon just found 984 (no vortex yet though).

Agree. 2 hours ago, I think we had a hurricane

[ocala]

Funny.
Just last night I dumped all 50 gallons of genny gas into the cars thinking we were done. Now this.
Thinking of going out and getting some more as we are under a TS warning. We live in the woods so are we are not a priority when it comes to turning on the power. Really don't want to hear my wife complain about no power.
But as shown up thread the tops have really warmed so it may have peaked.

[NDG]

Yep.

[GCANE]

Could start to see some tornadoes along the shore in a couple hours.

[GCANE]

Mesoscale Discussion 1789
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

Areas affected...Parts of the southwestern Florida Peninsula and
lower Keys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 110936Z - 111200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for waterspouts might not be completely
negligible with ongoing convection near southwestern Florida
Peninsula coastal areas through daybreak. By 9-11 AM EST, it is
possible that the potential for a tornado or two could begin to
increase around the Fort Myers and Port Charlotte areas. While it
is not yet certain that this will require a watch, trends will
continue to be monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...As Eta migrates north-northeastward around 10 kts, VWP
data indicate strengthening wind fields in the 1-3 KM AGL layer
contributing to enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
across the lower Florida Keys into southwestern Peninsula coastal
areas. This includes flow up to 50 kts as far east as Key West,
dropping off to 30-40 kts at Miami.

In the presence of a tropically moist boundary layer (including
surface dew points in the mid 70s F) to the northeast and east of
the circulation center, this has contributed to weak to modest
sustained low-level mesocyclones within discrete ongoing convective
development near Marathon into the Gulf waters near/northwest of the
Everglades. Given their current strength, and the probable presence
of at least a shallow near-surface stable layer inland of the coast,
the risk for tornadoes seems likely to remain low through daybreak.
Thereafter, with the onset of at least weak boundary-layer warming,
some of these low-level mesocyclones could begin to pose increasing
risk for producing a tornado.

Stronger low-level wind fields, associated potential low-level
mesocyclone development, and boundary-layer destabilization could
begin impacting coastal areas around Fort Myers and Port Charlotte
as early as 14-16Z.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 11/11/2020

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

[NDG]

Dropsonde.
Pressure down to 984mb.
On its current heading is going straight for the Tampa Bay area.

984mb (Surface) 255° (from the WSW) 7 knots (8 mph)

Coordinates: 25.7N 83.8W

[Dean4Storms]

That dry air entrained and cooling SST’s as you move northward might mean Eta threw her last good punch a few hours ago.

[GCANE]

About 10:00 PM tonight on approach.
Forecast looks like good TPW, RH, and CAPE entrainment. No significant dry air.
UL Divergent jet over this.
This time of day, the upper troposphere will be cooling off.
SPC is indicating a destabilization of the boundary layer over Florida.
Any convective refire today and it could get serious tonight.
Keeping an eye on any type of tornado outbreak especially north of Tampa Bay.

[NDG]

Good thing for the dry air that has punched in disrupting the eye like feature it had and cooler SSTs with its current heading towards the Tampa Bay area.